Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
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Hi Spights
Sounds like a fun weekend.
Thanks for posting the article.
Reasons to be cheerful 1, 2, 3.
1. The cut in Opec supply will take a few weeks to feed through to supply and price. The Saudi cuts have been extended to September and possibly further.
2. Last week was the first week of no releases / dumping from the SPR on to the market. In Biden's first two years in office he dumped 288 million barrels on the market to suppress prices. This year he dumped a further 28 million. This is now finished.
In a complete reversal, the US Department of Energy announced in May and June two 6 million barrel purchases, so 12 million barrels in total to start replenishing the SPR. So 12 million barrels off the market with announced purchases in be completed by AUGUST 2023.
Where would the price of oil be without that massive dump and, more interestingly, where is the price going to go now. !!
3. From Bloomberg today
2.3 million b/d deficit in Q3-2023
1.7 million b/d deficit in H2-2023
Going to dig deeply into inventories.
China/India/US showing decent strength and growing demand.
Just a relaxed waiting game for now. Traders back at work September just as all bullish oil data hits.
That was more than 3 I know. !!!
Take care. Onwards...........
This is why: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Media-Error-Triggers-Significant-Oil-Price-Spike.html
If you've ever wondered if media headlines and jawboning really influence oil prices, you can now put the question to rest. A mistake in publishing sent oil prices up sharply on Monday morning—but prices have since bounced back to normal levels now that the offending media piece has been removed and a retraction printed.
The Reuters headline wasn't exactly incorrect. "Saudi Arabia's Energy Department will voluntarily extend production cuts until the end of 2024." But we knew that. This is old news that dates back to June 4, when Saudi Arabia agreed to extend its additional voluntary oil cut until the year's end.
But even just rehashing the old news today like it was some new event sent Brent and WTI up by 2%, with Brent reaching above the important $80 threshold. But that was then. Within the span of less than an hour, crude oil prices returned to earth, and are now trading at a loss for the day.
Good afternoon MarkGo , All good here. On. the weekend
we had Iron man over 2500 entries it was amazing
In May, Saudi Arabia’s oil exports plunged below 7 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time this year as the world’s biggest crude exporter and several other large OPEC+ producers began a collective cut of 1.6 million bpd in May.
Saudi crude exports declined by 388,000 bpd from April to 6.93 million bpd in May, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday.
In April, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports slumped by 207,000 bpd from March, to 7.32 million bpd – a five-month low at the time, according to JODI, which compiles self-reported data from many countries.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production fell by 502,000 bpd, to 9.96 million bpd in May, according to the data reported today by the International Energy Forum (IEF).
The decline in May was in line with the Saudi pledge to reduce production by 500,000 bpd as part of the OPEC+ cut, which also includes cuts from Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, and several other OPEC+ producers.
In early April, the biggest OPEC producers in the Middle East and several other members of the OPEC+ pact announced a total of 1.6 million bpd of fresh production cuts between May and December 2023.
In those OPEC+ cuts, Saudi Arabia said it would reduce its crude oil production by 500,000 bpd and said that the move was “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”
In a bid to push oil prices higher, or “stabilize the market” as Saudi Arabia and OPEC put it, the Kingdom also announced last month a unilateral cut of 1 million bpd to its production for July, while the OPEC+ producers who had pledged cuts between May and December extended those cuts into 2024. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia said it would extend its unilateral production cut into August, and will be producing around 9 million bpd in both July and August.
Saudi Arabia will lose its status as the largest OPEC+ oil producer to Russia as the Kingdom begins the unilateral cut, with output in July and August at the lowest level in two years. Excluding the deep cuts during the pandemic, a Saudi production of just around 9 million bpd would be the lowest level the world’s top crude oil exporter has pumped since 2011.
Clued,
Yes, i agree.
They can make more money, by pretending the whole process is more complicated than needs be.
As you say no willingness. Hence the regulatory bodies should step in. But, they seem to be a part of the smoke and mirrors.
The emperors new clothes comes to mind, as a great analogy.
good afternoon spights
i hope all's well with you.
i'm looking forward to the results and an update on the transition and other 'growth engines' as looney calls them. it is easy to forget that, at present, the transition has zero value to the business. this is understandable and until some actual roi guidance can be provided this will continue to be the case. i hope this will happen at the next presentation.
news has been sp**** but we know that there are many exciting projects and partnerships on the go. i expect an exciting and lucrative future ahead.
it was disappointing to drop from 570 ( with the benefit of hindsight, 570 seemed a bit toppy ) but i am more confident of onwards and upwards than ever. i expect the next climb will have more substance, support and reason for it.
have a great day all
Hi meoryou
It's impossible to predict what level oil will go to but $100 is not only possible, its probable over the next few years and that would be historically cheap at that level taking into account inflation.
Here is the average yearly price of Brent from 2008 ( 2008 global financial crash and recession) to 2014. Taking into account inflation you can see how cheap Brent would be at $100 pb today.
Brent yearly average 2008-2014
2014 $98.97
2013 $108.56
2012 $111.57
2011 $111.26
2010 $79.6
2009 $61.74
2008 $96.94
Throw into the mix the lack of exploration and investment over recent years causing oil supply concerns . Recession or not in the west, ( the last recession did not impact the demand / price of oil much as shown ) the demand from India, Asia, China is increasing. If oil is $80 now with all the negative sentiment, inflation worries, interest rates etc we can take an educated guess what direction oil is going to go once the uncertainty and worry subsides.
So the good old days of relatively cheaper oil 2015 -2021 are gone for the foreseeable.
Hi Mark. and meoryou excellent posts thankyou.
Not long for some news
I am still very confident on the share price
Webcast details
bp's chief executive officer, Bernard Looney and chief financial officer, Murray Auchincloss will host a webcast covering our results for the second quarter 2023. The results presentation will be followed by a question and answer session.
Presentation materials and supplementary information will be available for download shortly before the webcast starts. The results will be published at 7am BST / 2am EDT.
Date
Tuesday 1 August
Time
9 — 10.30am BST / 4 — 5.30am EDT (approx.)
Hi Mark
As owners of an Oil Company we have to hope that when the physical market starts to lead the paper market,then the paper market starts to overcompensate to the up side.
Would be nice then to see OPEC defend $100 on the upside as a top price, as do not want to see anything higher, as it will only encourage demand destruction.
Morning meoryou
Previously the physical market drove oil prices and the poo was never so volatile. Enter the trading cowboys ( and girls ) of the wild West financial (paper) market....
The two markets are, the physical market, which is the largest commodity in the world, and the paper (financial) market for oil. The paper market is 30 times bigger than the physical market. So you can see where the volatility comes from.
The physical market currently healthy and improving week by week, as measured by inventory data and direction , and global supply and demand This is just starting to be seen now, yet the financial oil market is surpressed, due to things like fears of a recession, narrative on interest rates etc and due the the size of the paper market it can overwhelm positive underlying fundamentals in the physical market as we are currently witnessing, leading to oil prices falling or being suppressed despite the fundamental physical strength of demand and weakness of supply.
We need to see a number of weeks of positive physical market news on inventory draws, demand etc. together with peak interest rate hikes ( one or two months to go, I guess ) before the physical market drives price direction.
This has commenced and, I believe, we will see oil rise over the coming months and with a lag drive BP up with it.
Mark
This is starting to be a problem.
That’s at least 3 times I am aware of.
It’s starting to become “The Wild West “ of oil.
News wires have a duty of care to confirm stories.
Like you say someone’s making lots of money
Just finally on Open story....
Reuters were the ones in cahoots with the traders.
"Saudi Arabian oil news about Saudi cuts through 12/24 was a repeat of a release on June 4th and has been withdrawn by Reuters"
Shenanigans, manipulation and some oil trader's just made a fortune.
The Opec ' announcement ' has now been withdrawn as inaccurate. It was a repeat of a previous Opec member's comment.
The inaccurate headline purposely posted on one of the wires was withdrawn that referenced an extension to Saudi's voluntary cuts.
This did seem unusual as Opec are usually disciplined in announcements and are usually only made at the beginning of the month after Opec meetings.
Nevertheless, oil will rise on the supply/demand deficit starting to play out this month onwards.
EC
You witnessed an example of just how much oil is manipulated by the paper ( trading) market. These movement are disconnected from the physical market.
That was caused by Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud filling up one of his yachts.
Gone back down again now.
Now it's dived back down to $78.55!
Even without this news oil is going to rise over the coming months due to supply issues. Ignore the narrative attempting to suppress oil. Oil will fly and oil equities will follow.
Saudi Arabia Will Extend Its Voluntary Cut Until The End Of December 2024 -Ministry Of Energy
What is going on?
Selecta6, With the technology these days, and each trans is defined at source as a Buy or a Sale, the B or S definition could easily be part of the reported data, but there isn't a Willingness to do so.....
Meoryou, hope it is indeed a Win profit-wise. I think it's deplorable that Govts actually have such auctions as CAPEX and other investment is very material on top of these licences. Imagine if they existed for all business...!!
BP/renewables: German breeze wheeze saves face — and capital
https://news.aqrefx.com/2023/07/16/bp-renewables-german-breeze-wheeze-saves-face-and-capital/
Y11-shx,
My point exactly.
Smoke and mirrors. It can only be a buy or sale, but often gets mis-reported.
It is that simple.