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Mark
I’m sure we are all in agreement that this set of results will not be stunning,although BP has a track record for surprise on the up side.
I also think that although starting to give some financial info on the renewables,will be of interest,particularly to us private investors.
Unless there is some part doing really well, it will really be in a years time when they can be compared that they may finally add value.
For sp
It’s the size of the div, and the size of the buybacks that will probably be the main driver.
Will they follow Shell.
Morning all.
There is no special insight from Berenberg in this article below. Most applies to all the oil majors for Q2. lower crude, maintenance season etc. They have been pessimistic ( and wrong ) in all their previous analyst 'updates" and price target.
I do not expect anything stunning out of this quarter but Q3 will be much better. Q2 last year, the dividend was raised by 4%. Q4 saw an additional 10% rise so I'm hopeful for a further dividend rise, over the expected annual 4%, the quarter. I'm content with this prudent approach. For now.
"BP can still reward shareholders but set to show significant slowdown - analyst"
https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/bp-can-still-reward-shareholders-but-set-to-show-significant-slowdown--analyst-3088226
Oil prices were up early on Friday morning, with both WTI and Brent on course for a fourth consecutive weekly gain.
Early on Friday morning, WTI was up by 0.91% at $76.34 while Brent was trading at $80.34, an increase of 0.88%.
China’s pledge to boost its economy has improved sentiment in oil markets while fundamentals look increasingly bullish.
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oil prices
Oil prices were up slightly in Asian trading early on Friday and set for a small weekly gain, the fourth in a row, as the market is starting to see signs of tightening supply.
WTI Crude was up by 0.91% at 76.34 in Asian trading, while the international benchmark, Brent Crude, traded 0.88% higher at $80.34. Both benchmarks were on course to finish the week higher.
However, gains have been limited, after China reported early this week second-quarter GDP growth below expectations.
But the market is now more optimistic that China will roll out more stimulus to support domestic demand and help its economy which has struggled to rebound strongly after the end of the Covid lockdowns more than six months ago. China vowed on Tuesday that it would “formulate and introduce more effective policies for restoring and expanding consumption as soon as possible.”
This pledge has improved sentiment across the commodity markets.
While the economic data from China and the U.S. remain mixed, the fundamentals are increasingly pointing to a tighter oil market this summer.
Russian crude oil exports have shown signs of decline for a second consecutive week and are estimated to have sunk to a six-month low in the four weeks to July 16. Russia is preparing to cut 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) off its oil exports in August, and shipping plans so far suggest that Russia could deliver on at least part of its pledge to reduce oil exports next month.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports have also started to decline, to below 7 million bpd in May, for the first time in many months. Crude shipments out of the world’s top exporter could further decline as Saudi Arabia is now cutting its production by 1 million bpd in July and August.
In the United States, crude oil and gasoline inventories dropped last week, the EIA’s weekly data showed on Wednesday.Y
I have been positive the last couple of results days, but this time I am negative. The reason being the oil price defied supply/demand behaviour all the way up to the end of the qtr.
My theory is the trading department will have done 'badly' in q2 and will do better in q3.
If trading does well in Q2 they are geniuses but in that case I hope they jumped onto the other side of the boat on 1st July.
Like usual this will climb, get out before results day.
This will fall regardless of good or bad results.
Total of 6,465,793 of BPs ordinary shares
So number of buybacks slowly dropping as we near the end of this buyback cycle.
Positively sp still going in right direction.
Maybe 6,000,000 is enough to help sp upwards
And 4,000,000 is to little to really help sp upwards
Or else it’s all about only the oil price ( and the £/$ rate as well)
Hi all
BP has a habit of going through these nothing to report phases,then unexpected another deal is announced.They are very good at keeping the next deal out of the news until it’s time to announce it.
It’s easy when sp is rising to get sucked into spending too much time on here.
Much better life balance when we pop in and out, unless it’s raining.
Hi Mark it was excellent thankyou
Need to get away from the markets on times
I must say it is addictive
Brent is almost at 80$ and looking very strong
Onwards and upwards:)))))
Hi Spights and all.
To keep the positive trend going. A estimate preview below of data to be published next week by the EIA.
In brief, onwards and upwards for increasing draws.
Finalised estimates out later this week.
https://t.co/1wg4JPzocf
(https://twitter.com/HFI_Research/status/1681749837765816320?t=FqvQDhqNgvDTHyeR00gf5A&s=03
I hope you had a marvellous lunch Spights.
Hi meoryou and Mark
Had lunch out yesterday .There is not much happening at present
August expecting the share price to improve
Onwards and Upwards :)))
Afternoon,
With such long term projects. The article below helps explain the concerns of analysts and their current pessimism of returns on BP's transition investment.
Fortunately, this is only one sector of the transition.
UK efforts to boost renewable energy have suffered a major setback after one of the country’s biggest offshore wind farm projects was halted due to surging costs.
Swedish energy group Vattenfall on Thursday said it had suspended development of its 1.4GW Norfolk Boreas wind farm after costs on the project rose 40 per cent.
Increased cost was putting “significant pressure on all new offshore wind projects”, the company said, adding that it would “not take an investment decision now” on the project and would book an impairment charge of SKr5.5bn ($537mn).
“What we see today, it simply doesn’t make sense to continue this project,” said Vattenfall’s chief executive Anna Borg.
The UK government is seeking to more than triple offshore wind capacity by 2030 — from about 14GW to 50GW — to help decarbonise the country’s electricity system.
Norfolk Boreas had been one of the biggest new projects in the offshore wind pipeline, set to help power 1.5mn homes. The wind farm was due to be the first of three to be built by Vattenfall in the UK on the east coast, to power more than 4mn homes in total.
The wind industry has warned over the past few months that rising interest rates along with turbine and labour costs have been putting UK projects at risk.
The British government last year awarded the Norfolk Boreas project a contract guaranteeing a fixed price of £37.35 per megawatt-hour for its electricity for the first 15 years, in 2012 prices and linked to inflation. Ministers celebrated a sum that was well below the ones agreed in previous years.
However, developers have argued that surging costs linked to supply chain problems in the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine mean the projects may no longer be economically viable under these terms.
Vattenfall’s announcement is likely to heap pressure on the government, which is in the process of awarding the next round of fixed-price contracts. Developers have already warned that the maximum price of £44/MWh in 2012 prices is also too low.
Mads Nipper, chief executive of Ørsted, the world’s largest offshore wind developer, told the Financial Times last month that it was “inconceivable” that UK projects were not struggling.
The other two Vattenfall projects may be able to get higher government contracts, meaning they could still go ahead, Borg said. “We will now look into the situation and find the best way forward for all these projects — the energy is desperately needed,” she said.
Morning all.
Regarding inventories. What we don't always see is the whole picture in regard to builds or draws. Oil-on-water -floating storage is down nearly 59 million barrels so far in July. This could skew actual demand and supply and inventory data. Where is this floating supply going ? If some floating supply is being used to replenish inventories this could be the reason for the less than expected draws.
There are so many parties with vested interests in that the oil price is manipulated and remains suppressed from government departments ( IEA ), financial institutions, fund managers to oil traders etc who will manipulate the data to 'prove' that oil is bearish with demand worries and over supply concerns at the same time, as the whole picture for oil supply and demand looks super bullish going forward.
Truth will prevail in time. I expect the next few months will demonstrate that demand is strong and supply has limitations. Maybe its to early to say for certain that there will not be another fall back in the short term but the narrative on recession, interest rates rises, inflation seems to be cautiously more positive by the week.
At least for now, we can enjoy the respite from recent sticky lows and, barring unforseen unknowns, hopefully continue our forward crawl to Q2 and a sprint to the year end and beyond.
Hoping that we are all a bit richer tonight than we were this morning.
Have a great day all.
Morning Spights
It’s a quiet board this morning .
Results day almost within touching , 11 sleeps to go.
Really need some good news to keep this slow grind upwards.
Did wonder if Exxon purchase of a carbon capture firm for $4.9 billion might start to assign value to some of the green stuff BP do, but no such luck.
Onward and Upwards … to £5 and beyond
And then maybe WTI oil price bounces back positive
Yep aware we are close partners - exploration's post hints at a stronger equity based play however
WP
the 2 companies have already got a track record of working together
They have a joint bid in for 50% of NewMed energy of Israeli
bp and ADNOC intend to form a new joint venture that will be focused on gas development in international areas of mutual interest including the East Mediterranean. This proposed transaction with NewMed Energy would be a significant first step in establishing this dynamic joint venture together with ADNOC.
BP and ADNOC and Masdar in September 2021 agreed on a strategic partnership for clean energy solutions in the UK and UAE, including the intention to work together to develop low carbon hydrogen hubs, such as at Teesside.
27.05.2022 - Building on agreements signed last September, BP, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) and Masdar have inked further agreements to progress their partnerships on blue and green hydrogen projects in both the UK and United Arab Emirates (UAE).
I think this very much is a developing partnership,but whither it turns into something more is harder to read.
Interesting - by 'big deal' what are you thinking? a middle east focused Renewables JV? Equity sales to Abu Dhabi govt? Bp buy into to ADNOC?
I posted some of this a few days ago.
BP is a rather dull share today compared with the past when it regularly hit the headlines around the world with big oil and gas deals in the 1990s under John Browne’s leadership. On the negative side tens of $billions were wiped off the value of BP under his successor’s reign.
With even the biggest wind turbines rating at 10 MW ‘organic growth’ is slow and, in energy terms, is roughly same as 2 or 3 mmscfd of gas being burned in a turbine generator. So wind, important as it is, becomes BP’s ‘organic growth’ option - glacially slow.
But really exciting, transformational deals take years to mature and become engineering reality. No-one seems to have noticed the moves BP started making under the leadership of Bob Dudley aimed at fast-tracking the transition from oil. Rumours persist such a move could be enabled by an alliance between BP and the United Arab Emirates and perhaps announced at the COP28 meeting in early December.
This deal has been gradually taking shape for more than two years, still with input from Bob Dudley I suspect while the day-to-day chore of running BP are left to the UK team. More recently we’ve seen BP/ADNOC team up to buy into NewMed and BP/SOCAR make a joint bid to explore for gas offshore Israel. The eastern Mediterranean gas play is part of the Nile Delta petroleum province where BP has a commanding position in Egyptian waters.
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-adnoc-and-masdar-to-form-strategic-partnership-to-provide-clean-energy-solutions-for-uk-and-uae.html
More recently, Bernard Looney posted support for UAE. See below.
“It’s just over four months until the United Arab Emirates hosts COP28. And today, COP President Dr Sultan Al Jaber set out his ambitious agenda – which resonated strongly with me and at the team here at bp.
Perhaps most striking for me was his emphasis on fast-tracking the transition – with a laser-focus on building the energy system of the future, while rapidly decarbonising the energy system of today.
Dr Al Jaber also talked about the need to fix climate finance, focus on people, lives & livelihoods – while underpinning all that with full inclusivity.
It was a great speech. And we look forward to supporting the UAE as it prepares for the transformative COP28 UAE we all hope this will be.”
Quite what form a BP/UAE deal might take remains to be seen, but it is likely to be big and involve presidents and prime ministers - just like BP of the 1990s
Bob Dudley is Chairman of OGCI, which includes CEOs of all major oil companies. OGCI’s office is in London.
https://www.ogci.com/who-we-are
From start of Bernard Looney becoming CEO of BP I was surprised how he waded into the ‘transition’ story so quickly, reduced interests in oil, such as Angola, but now it’s clearer that there was a bigger plan which had been incubating for years.
Starmer, Sun
Morning all.
An interesting 5 min watch on the realities of oil and gas versus the renewable energy transition.
https://vm.tiktok.com/ZGJVjkyUp/
Nice crawl upwards today.
Truth is, short of a massive improvement in EU/UK inflation figs or a hike in divi [mentioned by shell] I cant forsee a catalyst