London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Inflation falls to 7.9% in bigger than expected drop
No release from SPR. That’s good
Gasoline draw of 2.8 million barrels again that’s good.
Crude draw off of 797,000 barrels is okay.
Inventory at Cushing fell by 3,000,000 barrels again that’s good
See what tomorrows report can add
RELATED NEWS
Carbon Prices Set To Fall As Europe Speeds Up Energy Transition
Germany’s Onshore Wind Power Additions Not Enough To Meet 2030 Targets
Oil Steady As API Reports Small Draw In Crude Inventories
By Julianne Geiger - Jul 18, 2023, 3:51 PM CDT
Crude oil inventories in the United States decreased this week by 797,000 barrels, the American Petroleum Institute (API) data showed on Tuesday after increasing by 3.026 million barrels in the week prior.
Analysts were expecting a much draw of 2.25 million barrels in U.S. crude-oil inventories. The total number of barrels of crude oil gained so far this year is nearly 34 million barrels, according to API data, although the net draw in crude inventories since April is more than 13 million barrels.
On Monday, the Department of Energy (DoE) reported no change to the inventory held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) in the week ending July 14, ending 15 straight weeks of decreases in the SPR inventory to a 40-year low of 346.8 million barrels.
The price of WTI and Brent were both trading up on Tuesday in the run-up to the data release. By 4:16 p.m. EST, WTI was trading up 2.14%, at $75.74 per barrel—up just shy of $1 per barrel since last Tuesday, while Brent crude was trading up 1.54% at $79.71—up just $.20 this from this time last week.
Gasoline inventories saw a decent draw, falling by 2.8 million barrels after rising by 1.004 million barrels in the week prior. Distillate inventories fell by 100,000 barrels, compared to the 2.908 million barrel build in the week prior.
Crude oil production in the United States slipped back to 12.3 million bpd for the week ending July 7, according to EIA data, up just 100,000 bpd from the start of the year.
Inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 3 million barrels, after rising by 2.150 million barrels in the previous week.
Hi meoryou yes this is what I found for March
https://www.rigzone.com/news/bp_adnoc_offer_to_buy_half_of_israels_newmed_energy-29-mar-2023-172402-article/
Hi Spights
I found that extra interesting as BP and ADNOC tendered to purchase 50% of NewMed Energy March 29 th.
So they may end up owning 75% of any discoveries.
Although information on the acquisition progress is hard to find.
Opec cuts and the the Russian volume adjustment will not hit the physical number data until September. The Saudis have extended their cut until September. Without reposting, there are so many bullish factors coming into play in the next few months.
This trading range is coming to an end.
Regards
OPEC+ Monitoring Committee to Meet in August. Even though OPEC+’s next full alliance meeting is only scheduled to meet November 26, the monitoring committee of the oil group will convene on August 3 to assess the impact of its ongoing production cuts as oil prices started to climb again.
Companies
BP, Socar join NewMed in licencing auction -sources
Eastern Med gas has drawn growing international interest
Energean, Ratio Energies also bid -sources
LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - BP (BP.L) and Azeri national oil company Socar have taken part for the first time in an Israeli licencing round for natural gas exploration, the latest sign of growing international interest in the Eastern Mediterranean basin, sources said.
BP and Socar jointly placed a bid along with Israel's NewMed Energy (NWMDp.TA) for two offshore blocks in the fourth licencing round that closed on Sunday, according to four company and industry sources.
A VERY GOOD AFTERNOON MarkGo
They always seem to get the news before us
Movers
- Oil major BP (NYSE:BP) and Azerbaijan’s national oil firm SOCAR have participated for the first time in Israel’s recent licensing round, jointly bidding for two offshore blocks alongside Israel’s NewMed Energy.
Good afternoon Spights
Looking at the price of oil, I'm guessing tonight's inventory data has been briefed ( leaked ) to the trading cartels.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Stabilize-As-Traders-Await-Inventory-Report.html
Hi Cong
None of us really know what's going on. To quote Warren Buffett " no one knows what the market is going to do tomorrow, next week or next year " so what chance do we have ?
All we can do is look at fundamentals of a company, strategic direction and take a chance that we will be rewarded for staying the course and holding our nerve through volatile times. I intend on holding BP long term and expect ( hope ) to be rewarded handsomely.
On oil. The API US crude inventories data will be released tonight at 20.30 GMT and the IEA's data will be published on Thursday. Large draws should support the price of oil and possibly push oil higher.
Have a great day
Hey Mark. I can't say that I had actually considered some of that, appreciate the reply! I cut my holding in half once I reached 60% , admittedly too early as was before the spike up, but the rest I was intending to leave for some time, so I will still be here watching trying to understand what's going on lol
Morning Cong
It's just a matter of time before BP moves upwards again.
We are in the summer trading period. In general share prices tend to fall over the summer months as fund managers and the big institutional traders go on their hols.
Trading volumes and liquidity are always lower over the summer season.
Fund managers and Institutional investors sell some of their shares / assets before they go on their hols so that their investments are at less risk of taking a big hit if markets fall or global economic events happen suddenly while they are not at their trading desks to be able to respond. BP was £5.34 on 28th April and £4.76 4th May, one week later. So it is possible that part of the drop is due to profit taking before the summer season. The old saying goes "Sell in May and go away, don't come back till St Leger Day" so ell shares in May and buy them back in September.
This may explain why BP has been stuck in its current trading range since May. I expect a slow recovery in the share price until September. By that time, the bullish data on oil supply / demand will be clear and established and the lag in share price reaction to higher oil price should be addressed.
Bit disappointing we were at 450 when I think oil hit around 72 last time? Vs 78 now. Doesn't seem we are getting much of the rise, it's almost as if the rise happens out of hours we don't really see the gain lol. I Remember this happened a while ago, then it sorted itself out, hopefully the same again please.
Hi Weirdpal
It makes you wonder how such manipulation can be legal ?
Oh hang on, I just remembered that its not !!!!
I'm sure they will investigate !!
The power of the market due to $$$$$$
The weakness of regulation also due to $$$$$$
Hi Spights
Sounds like a fun weekend.
Thanks for posting the article.
Reasons to be cheerful 1, 2, 3.
1. The cut in Opec supply will take a few weeks to feed through to supply and price. The Saudi cuts have been extended to September and possibly further.
2. Last week was the first week of no releases / dumping from the SPR on to the market. In Biden's first two years in office he dumped 288 million barrels on the market to suppress prices. This year he dumped a further 28 million. This is now finished.
In a complete reversal, the US Department of Energy announced in May and June two 6 million barrel purchases, so 12 million barrels in total to start replenishing the SPR. So 12 million barrels off the market with announced purchases in be completed by AUGUST 2023.
Where would the price of oil be without that massive dump and, more interestingly, where is the price going to go now. !!
3. From Bloomberg today
2.3 million b/d deficit in Q3-2023
1.7 million b/d deficit in H2-2023
Going to dig deeply into inventories.
China/India/US showing decent strength and growing demand.
Just a relaxed waiting game for now. Traders back at work September just as all bullish oil data hits.
That was more than 3 I know. !!!
Take care. Onwards...........
This is why: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Media-Error-Triggers-Significant-Oil-Price-Spike.html
If you've ever wondered if media headlines and jawboning really influence oil prices, you can now put the question to rest. A mistake in publishing sent oil prices up sharply on Monday morning—but prices have since bounced back to normal levels now that the offending media piece has been removed and a retraction printed.
The Reuters headline wasn't exactly incorrect. "Saudi Arabia's Energy Department will voluntarily extend production cuts until the end of 2024." But we knew that. This is old news that dates back to June 4, when Saudi Arabia agreed to extend its additional voluntary oil cut until the year's end.
But even just rehashing the old news today like it was some new event sent Brent and WTI up by 2%, with Brent reaching above the important $80 threshold. But that was then. Within the span of less than an hour, crude oil prices returned to earth, and are now trading at a loss for the day.
Good afternoon MarkGo , All good here. On. the weekend
we had Iron man over 2500 entries it was amazing
In May, Saudi Arabia’s oil exports plunged below 7 million barrels per day (bpd) for the first time this year as the world’s biggest crude exporter and several other large OPEC+ producers began a collective cut of 1.6 million bpd in May.
Saudi crude exports declined by 388,000 bpd from April to 6.93 million bpd in May, data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) showed on Monday.
In April, Saudi Arabia’s crude exports slumped by 207,000 bpd from March, to 7.32 million bpd – a five-month low at the time, according to JODI, which compiles self-reported data from many countries.
Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production fell by 502,000 bpd, to 9.96 million bpd in May, according to the data reported today by the International Energy Forum (IEF).
The decline in May was in line with the Saudi pledge to reduce production by 500,000 bpd as part of the OPEC+ cut, which also includes cuts from Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, and several other OPEC+ producers.
In early April, the biggest OPEC producers in the Middle East and several other members of the OPEC+ pact announced a total of 1.6 million bpd of fresh production cuts between May and December 2023.
In those OPEC+ cuts, Saudi Arabia said it would reduce its crude oil production by 500,000 bpd and said that the move was “a precautionary measure aimed at supporting the stability of the oil market.”
In a bid to push oil prices higher, or “stabilize the market” as Saudi Arabia and OPEC put it, the Kingdom also announced last month a unilateral cut of 1 million bpd to its production for July, while the OPEC+ producers who had pledged cuts between May and December extended those cuts into 2024. Earlier this month, Saudi Arabia said it would extend its unilateral production cut into August, and will be producing around 9 million bpd in both July and August.
Saudi Arabia will lose its status as the largest OPEC+ oil producer to Russia as the Kingdom begins the unilateral cut, with output in July and August at the lowest level in two years. Excluding the deep cuts during the pandemic, a Saudi production of just around 9 million bpd would be the lowest level the world’s top crude oil exporter has pumped since 2011.