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At the interim stage, they guided towards following:
Sales: down 12-17% for full-year to February 2023.
EBITDA margin: 4-4.5%
EBITDA: £58-70m
Capex: £75m
Gross margins were an excellent 53.4% at interim stage but no specific guidance was given for FY.
There was no guidance for net debt but at interim stage it was £35m so assuming balance of capex over H2 and no free cash inflow, we should infer it will be around £75-85m.
These figures are now well publicised and after guidance was reaffirmed recently, the market priced in a sales decline at the top end of the range of 17%. But this is all historic. What about the outlook for FY2025?
In terms of outlook, I will be looking for:
- recent sales trends i.e. post-period end and signs of stabilisation / green shoots in FY2025.
- gross margins and whether they have been maintained.
- Progress towards EBITDA margin target of 6-8%.
- Net debt to start coming down over FY 2025 H2 as identified cost savings and automation efficiencies improve FCF.
Given the weak share price going into the results, the SP is geared towards any upside surprise.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Sorry correction should have referred to:
Sales: down 12-17% for full-year to February 2024* .
250p by year end. You heard it here second.
Don't worry if it doesn't hit that. Just add another 100p on top for the next year end. And again. And again. We'll reach a golden intersection between Happy and coasty's dream-like predictions. 650p by YE 2028.
What is the relevance of your response to the content of my post?
Genuinely confused. You appear to lack maturity.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Well your much-vaunted "100p by YE 2023" fell flat on its face. So back again with "250p by YE 2024", coupled with some optimistic yet stretching claims about tomorrow's results. Quite laughable to be accused of immaturity when this is the kind of rampy pie-in-the-sky twaddle being bandided about with such seriousness.
"...coupled with some optimistic yet stretching claims about tomorrow's results."
Point to one such claim in my post. I quoted only from the Company's own guidance.
You are a very odd person.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Happy i'd be surprised if there are any surprises in the year end results.
I'm far more interested in the guidance for this year, particularly around Debenhams and US. Results to end Feb are probably too early to show a proper trend in the US, but we should hopefully see a trend emerging as we go through this year.
My couple of key watch outs are for revenue, where (as I've posted before) I expect to see Debenhams hold it back and investment in price. I'm hoping as we go through this year they get the balance better between price investment and margin requirements.
Frankly not got a clue how the sp will react, I'm more interested in the business for the next year.
I wish they would split Debenhams out for reporting purposes as I believe it has the potential to be worth more than the current market cap in the next two years.
Same here. Shein is under the spotlight in the US so opportunity there for BOO is there. US has sucked up a lot of investment recently so looking forward to seeing if it pays off. Gla for decent news in the update.
Thanks Bfdinvestor and Sharefall
Agree with your comments.
I think it's all about the outlook rather than the FY2024 results which are largely known from past company guidance.
I also agree that the Shien and Temu threat is overstated. I don't see them as being direct, medium-term competitors. We need to continue focusing on brand and quality to differentiate not exclusively focus on price and promotions. Things are definitely headed in the right direction operationally. Let's see if they're starting to bear fruit in terms of financial performance.
Good luck all.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
"Given the weak share price going into the results, the SP is geared towards any upside surprise. "
Well, I would have to start with your portrayal of the share price being primed, almost coiled-spring-like, ready to explode on any positive surprise. Not credible at all. Notice how dreamy claims of imminent glory never go contested by the board pumpers.
The business is on its backside. Declining revenue in a growing market, reliance on debt, no strategy and no communications. Very, very serious decline, massive headwinds and a very uncertain future.
Where did I say it was a "coiled spring" lol? That's just your odd imagination.
I am saying expectations are low going into the results, which is reflected in the share price (bumping all time lows). If there's any upside surprise, it is likely to have significant effect on the SP. If the outlook is more positive than the market expects, especially in relation to sales, that would be a good plus point.
And this: "Very, very serious decline, massive headwinds and a very uncertain future" is hyperbole and scaremongering from someone who clearly has no shares.
All IMHO DYOR
Happy
Oh, OK, if you say so. I'm holding for 250p by year end, as per your advice.
Good luck with your imaginary portfolio.
Happy
"Notice how dreamy claims of imminent glory never go contested by the board pumpers."
Who gets a chance before you and the Three Stooges jump on any comment showing any view you believe unacceptable. Not everyone has the time or desire to be the board police while you and your chums give each other reach around congratulating each other for saving the virtual community from those damn 'rampers' .
Are you a member of Daytrades 'Super, Secure, Always Right, Wealthy, Elite Investor Club?
Something has leaked…
"Are you a member of Daytrades 'Super, Secure, Always Right, Wealthy, Elite Investor Club?"
Well if it isn't our man in the orient, far from prying eyes. Failed teacher who drones on at absolutely anyone about how he lives in Singapore. No afiliations on here, just a healthy distrust of the jam tomorrow brigade.
and by the way lidl, i agian notice your tendency to revert to all these peurile ****erotic and faecal references. how odd. no prizes for guessing what you might do to pass the time out there, eh?!
Bon
I thought you sold and took the hit? Never nice to do that but move on surely. Isnt jam tomorrow why everyone invests?
"I thought you sold and took the hit?"
Not all all. Still holding, but rather dissatisfied about it all. Someone else you're meaning? I remember PDS, and another user after that.
My appologies,
Not sure who PDS is.
If your holding Im sure youre not alone in feeling annoyed. But such is life and the show must go on and all that.