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Started: norfolkslim, 14 Jun 2024 11:14
Last post: norfolkslim, 14 Jun 2024 11:14
Having sold out at 5050p, I'm tempted to buy back in here for a medium term hold to see how things settle down and the Ameribank acquisition starts to play out. But I can see risk of a significant further drop in SP if negative impact of the 'Russian Law' or general damage to Georgia's economy (tourism etc) as a result of the adverse press. Equally, if the opposition were to get organised as a cohesive pre-EU coalition which managed to oust Georgian Dream in the October elections, then I could see a massive rebound in sentiment. For now, dividends will have diminished in real terms as a UK shareholder, given that it is priced in GEL and the recent weakening of GEL.
I would welcome anyone else's considered thoughts! GLA
Started: Glynnpeters, 20 May 2024 09:39
Last post: DramChart, 20 May 2024 15:49
IMHO the "Russian Law" is simply a tool to enable Ivanishvili and fellow oligarchs to prevent any further integration with Europe. Their primary motive is that 'unorthodox' financial arrangements thrive better under authoritarian regimes with tight controls over critics than they do in democracies. But the GD also enjoy the support of traditionalists - especially the older generation in rural areas - who fear that Georgian values are under threat from liberal Western ideologies (e.g. the LBTQ+ movement). Given their majority, I think GD will see their law passed. We can then expect volatility in the banking SPs, but I don't think their businesses will be much affected in the medium/long term (because a pro-Russia outcome likely will attract more Russian money to offset less European money, and vice-versa).
Completely disagree. The president's "veto" was always expected, and is purely symbolic as can be overruled by Georgian Dream, which is what they currently are showing every intent of doing, thus signing the "Russian Law" into law. The protests are about that, and are what persuaded Georgian Dream to discontinue attempts to bring the law in last year. If the law is voted in as expected, then expect another significant drop in SP. If the mass protests and/or EU and USA pressure does persuade Georgian Dream to drop the law (again), then expect a SP rise, but with the continued risk of a possible Russian invasion (as with Abkhazia and South Ossettia) a material ongoing risk to Georgia's future stability (and thus the SP of BGEO).
This could gravitate back up now it is calming down a bit and El Presidente has interjected. The copycat protests are a global thing at the moment so has little to do with government decisions.
Manfor, you may be right on currency risk - certainly it can't be ignored. It's interesting though that 10 years ago the GEL was stronger at 1.72 and 5 years ago about the same exchange rate as now so hard to say what normal is.
Price to book valuation here is also very high in comparison to UK banks
Close Brothers 0.35
Barclays 0.37
Secure Trust Bank 0.39
Standard Chartered 0.47
Lloyds 0.65
Natwest 0.67
HSBC 0.9
TBC Bank 1.3
Bank of Georgia 1.6
The Georgian currency is a very big risk here and if the GEL was to return to the same average exchange rate against the USD and GBP as in 2021 then these shares would fall by about 30%
In May 2021 the USD bought 3.45 GEL but it only buys about 2.75 now
And in May 2021 the GBP bought about 4.80 GEL but it only buys about 3.50 now
There does not seem to be any good reason for this huge rise in the GEL gainst the USD and GBP in the last 3 years and so it is likely that the GEL will return to a more normal level against these currencies
This would mean a fall of about 30% in the shares
The dividend would also fall by about 30%
Dram agree the FX risk but personally was fortunate to pick these up at a silly price. 3 more years of divis and I have the shares for free. I bought more at £40 as I think it was blood on the streets time, a bank with a yield of 7% . Agree currency could take a bashing but I believe whatever happens this is a well run bank and will adapt to whatever lies ahea
Beware the fx risk. BGEO dividend is in GEL, which is losing value because of the situation.
Started: DramChart, 16 May 2024 15:48
Last post: DramChart, 17 May 2024 08:30
I started BGEO in July 2022 at just over 1500 and sold most in early April 2024 at 4980, so can't complain. I've added a few at 4105 in the hope that it will eventually get back above 5000 and give divis in the meantime. Why can't politicians behave themselves? (I blame their parents). Good luck all.
I've been hoovering up Tbc the last few days. Very impressed with the rise today. I'm not a day trader so not intersted in daily gains. Great dividend yields. Way overdone in my views. Same here buying up small tranches.
Interesting that, as I type, TBCG is up 5%. Waiting to see if BGEO benefits from a read over.
Started: norfolkslim, 15 May 2024 10:05
Last post: norfolkslim, 15 May 2024 10:05
Such a shame this great share is being dragged down by the current turmoil. I sold out at just over £50, and will be sitting on the sidelines, watching closely until either (i) the law is withdrawn (again), or (ii) elections in Oct manage to oust Georgian Dream. My heart goes out to the brave youth of Georgia - at the end of the day they're the ones who matter, not a company share price. :(
Started: Parde, 3 May 2024 11:44
Last post: ethical, 10 May 2024 10:42
CGEO has different exposure - sure biggest holding is BGEO and they are BGEO's biggest shareholder...
CGEO is down by a similar amount to bgeo
Less than 0.5% shares sold over 2 days. Main shareholder Georgia Capital's shares have risen by 5% since 11.00 am today.
Started: norfolkslim, 23 Apr 2024 11:28
Last post: norfolkslim, 26 Apr 2024 09:49
I know - it's strange isn't it? Compare to the rapid cesspool of stocks like HE1 (where sadly I didn't fare so well!) :)
So rare to see anyone talking about this share.
I'm up about 60pc and the dividend is nice too.
Its been a fairly smooth ride too. Gradual and relentless. Very happy to hold for the long term
...this back above 5000p after the recent "breather". Let's hope it holds here or thereabouts before moving on.
https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=BGEO&share=Bank-Of-Georgia-Group#posting-rules
Started: ripley94, 6 Oct 2022 10:39
Last post: ripley94, 3 Apr 2024 22:52
Shares in Issue 45.59m
Market Cap. £2.30b
Market Size 750
PE Ratio 4.571157
Earnings 1,104.75321
Dividend 123.39306
Yield 2.443%
5000p now 34% better then the 3750p sell on 20th December 2023.
Georgia Capital also on all year high today .
I see from this site PE ratio is 3.498519.
Yield down to 3.2%
All out today for 3750p 9.30am up to 3850p 3.30pm .
The first buy 18/5/2018 was at 3374p approx 11% gain over the 5 1/2 years , a little above the target set after February sell.
That the top up after big fall on 1st July 2019 for 1487p sold for 3000p over 100% gain over 4 1/4 years .
Divs wile I waited I can see from posts below 9%.
Hope for all my other paper losses with the help of God.
They fell back after the February slice to a low of 2395p mid March 2023 , I did not order a buy .
Would of been better then others I chose at the time .
Hinsight , might change in the future .
Nice strong push to £30 courtesy of Barc. I think this still has a little further to go
Sold out a chunk above £50, looking to get back in if/when it goes down a bit.
Wealthoracle.co.uk/detailed-result-full/BGEO/832
bank of georgia group plc posted impressive fy23 prelims this morning continuing the bank’s trajectory of robust and very profitable growth. bgeo had 1.8 million monthly active retail clients as of 31 december 2023 up 10.8% y-o-y, operating income was gel 657.2m in 4q23 up 12.4% y-o-y, while in fy23 as a whole, operating income was up 26.4% yoy to gel 2,530.4m. for fy23, profit was gel 1,374.7m, up 21.4% y-o-y, while the bank's basel iii cet1, tier1, and total capital ratios stood at 18.2%, 20.0%, and 22.1%, respectively, all comfortably above the minimum requirements of 14.5%, 16.7%, 19.6%, respectively. so more robust top and bottom line growth with a very solid balance sheet in tow. valuation also remains reasonably attractive for the sector with forward pe ratio at 5.1x top quartile for the banking services sector. the share price also has strong positive momentum. buy...
...from wealthoracle
***************************detailed-result-full/bgeo/832
Started: norfolkslim, 15 Mar 2024 10:29
Last post: norfolkslim, 15 Mar 2024 13:54
@Dramchart - exactly!
Happy with the results
Me too. Mr. Market, over-reacting to modest drop in profit mostly owing to costs associated with Ameriabank acquisition, seems to ignore the fact that you can't make omelettes without breaking eggs :)
This section from the y/e report summarises why!
Ameriabank is a leading franchise in the local market - #1 by loans and #2 by deposits - and is the "top-of-mind" banking brand in Armenia, with further upside to grow, especially in the retail and SME segments, leveraging the Group's experience and know-how in digitalisation, payments, and customer experience. I believe this acquisition, which was approved by the shareholders on March 14th, is a great opportunity for the Group to increase scale and unlock further growth. We are set to acquire Ameriabank with our surplus capital, with no dilution for shareholders, and it is expected to be immediately earnings enhancing with an ROE uplift. Importantly, our dividend and capital distribution policy and payout ratio of 30-50% will not change. Considering the Group's strong performance during 2023 and robust capital and liquidity positions, the Board intends to recommend, at the 2024 Annual General Meeting, a final dividend for 2023 of GEL 4.94 per share, making a total dividend for 2023 of GEL 8.00 per share. This is a 5% increase on the dividend for 2022 - a year boosted by significant one-offs and FX income which broadly normalised in 2023. In addition, the Board has also approved an extension of the buyback and cancellation programme by an additional GEL 100 million. This represents an overall dividend and share buyback pay-out ratio for the year ended 31 December 2023 of 37% (2022: 37%).
Started: norfolkslim, 15 Mar 2024 09:54
Last post: norfolkslim, 15 Mar 2024 09:54
To be expected, but holding well - still at £50, which we'd have been delighted with reaching only a few weeks ago. Will be interesting to see if positive movement following the investors zoom call at 2pm, which I will try and join if I have time.
Started: norfolkslim, 15 Mar 2024 07:09
Last post: norfolkslim, 15 Mar 2024 07:09
The summary all looks very positive to me - maintaining dividend growth, and more share buyback in 2024, all whilst funding Ameribank acquisition which will boost revenue and profits after an already stellar couple of years.
Started: manphibian, 6 Mar 2024 11:30
Last post: PEAKDREAD, 14 Mar 2024 14:16
Thanks Rheinmetal (now there's a share I wish I'd jumped on a month ago....). It feels like I'm a bit late to the party with this one - I managed to get into Vistry a few weeks ago and they look like they have some really good potential (if you don't know too much about them watch this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_W60Cmy3tbU&t=52s - It's an hour and a half long but gives a real in depth expose of what Vistry do). I may dip my toe in with BGEO - but am wary of catching this one a bit too late....
What are your expectations?? Do results have to be bombastic to boost the SP?
When's the full year report and dividend declaration? I had it down as end of feb...
Started: norfolkslim, 14 Mar 2024 11:21
Last post: norfolkslim, 14 Mar 2024 11:21
Revenue forecast is 659M apparently, so that's the ballpark to look at, albeit the Nov 23 results were very slightly below forecast and that certainly didn't hurt the continuing share price growth!
Started: norfolkslim, 13 Mar 2024 14:58
Last post: Rheinmetal_fan, 13 Mar 2024 15:21
I may well be wrong, but the share price movement has been quite interesting this week - moving a pound or so down or up from opening prices intra day, but usually returning to more or less the opening price at the end of each day. Strikes me as possibly MMs trying to stimulate some share sales ahead of results? I'm holding since 2700p and planning on holding for the next few years. My target is 7500p in 12 months time, with good dividends maintained in the meantime. GLA DYOR etc.
Last post: ethical, 5 Mar 2024 09:17
Might break 60 before too long...
Any reasoned arguments welcomed, but you haven't presented any. Looks like the market disagrees with your valuation also.
Nothing said on these boards will change any share price and the suggestion that someone with a positive or a negative comment can do that is nonsense
You just cannot handle a slightly negative comment about a share that you recently bought
Right.... but we're not just talking about Georgia are we? BGEO is buying The largest bank in Armenia, which itself has a similar GDP per capita as Georgia, so the price is adjusting upwards to allow for this.
There's also more to it than just GDP of the country. Georgia is a completely different prospect to Kazakhstan and recently being accepted as a candidate for EU membership means BGEO is rightly on what will be a long upward trajectory. Hence the difference in how they are valued.
Also i was just pointing out that you do this a lot... try to get people to buy in to your, often falling, investments.
Damofarl
The comment was directed at manphibian and not you
He is obviously not very keen on any alternative view on BGEO
Crazy relentless growth from this share. Definitely a gem that few seem to talk about.
Told a friend about this one a few weeks ago and he bought in. (I didn't recommend it, just highlighted it).
Anthony in particular driving it?
Started: norfolkslim, 15 Feb 2024 17:22
Last post: damofarl, 27 Feb 2024 20:54
Ethical; agree your points on BGEO and CGEO both of which I hold.
Whilst BGEO is a dominant fish in a small pond, ergo how much can they 'grow' there, I see this purchase as BGEO leveraging their capabilities into being a regional powerhouse, and as such there is more growth to come from BGEO.
The growth/crystallisation of value in CGEO will, in my opinion, be greater ithan BGEO's in the interim, because their other holdings are so unappeciated (currently). Holdings that I calculate back of an envelope style, EXCLUDING BGEO 's contribution, are already yielding the equivalent of around a 6% dividend
My strong opinion is that the pharmacy arm will be floated/spun out in the next 18 months, and like BGEO they will retain a large stake. Ultimately, I see CGEO morphing from a private equity style house into an investment trust, holding sizeable influencing holdings in a plethora of companies.
Both have been great to me, and both have more to offer. I for one, am also heavy Georgia, but I will remain so, as Georgia is not on my mind, Georgia, to me, has been kind.
Not far off the £50 mark now. It wouldn't surprise me to see a share split coming soon. GLA
Agreed, Georgia is a beautiful country. The older folks have that Soviet stern faces, but the moment you smile at them they break out into broad smiles too, and are so hospitable. The only negative is their ridiculously dangerous macho driving! I’ve been twice, and also a road trip round Armenia which is beautiful too. 👍
If they own 20% of a £2bn company - thats makes up 80% of cgeo market cap...alongside geo it has some very nice portfolio companies with dominant positions in Georgia (though its a very small market). given the weighting of BGEO now in my portfolio i'm a tad over exposed to Georgia - lovely country if you ever have the chance to visit.
Interesting comment re: CGEO, although I'm not sure I follow your comment about growth - CGEO has risen 44.64% over the past year, versus CGEO rising 47.50% in the past year - v v similar growth in percentage terms.
Started: norfolkslim, 13 Jul 2023 11:25
Last post: Clarkcp, 12 Jan 2024 17:50
Hi Ripley, yes I did close my short in DLG in June.I opened a long in DLG in Nov @168 I'm looking to average into a long term hold on this for SIPP. I might be wrong but I think they will reinstate divi soon. Premiums are through the roof at the moment
Sorry DLG
Just had a look at your history Clarkcp out of interest did you close the DLR short of May this year .
Was fortunate to buy these when they were silly price so I won't ever sell unless something political happens but IMO worth £50 all day long
Also.
With it being very quiet.. Its there still plenty of room to grow? Forward PE looks great for example
What caused the drop in sp today???
smad
All its business ( Belarus included) the rules are set by the sovereign Bank of Georgia. So uk deregulation will have nill effect on it. None whatsoever.
Because it's a bank...in the UK..
small
"Hope this will get a boost from the UK bank de-regulation news"
Why would it?
Hope this will get a boost from the UK bank de-regulation news
I was up 115% last week. Up 107% today nothing spectacular.
Started: SD235, 9 Nov 2022 17:50
Last post: SD235, 18 Nov 2022 18:19
At last I have been up 100% on BGEO multiple times but this is the first time for me it has finished 100% up. 103% to be exact.
Says they are not sellers as they agree with analyst's price of value of £40 a share.
Exchange rate for upcoming dividend which is 1.85 lari
"The Group hereby confirms that the National Bank of Georgia’s Lari/Pound Sterling average exchange rate for the period of 3 October to 7 October 2022 was 3.1671 and it shall be used to pay dividends to ordinary shareholders of the Group on 20 October 2022."
Help i have a hangover i make that 58.5p?
If not please show your maths.
In fact show your maths anyway?
I am wondering how the huge increse in what amounts to refugees will affect the country and hence the bank. Georgians not happy with the rent increases in Tablis.
Conversion rate set over 1 week period starting Monday its average for the week. Actual Conversion take place 10 days before pay date.
Exchange rate is now moving in the wrong direction...bugger!
Middle price so far this week 58 to 59 (1.85 lari)
Interim increased 25% increase in Georgian Lari.
Sterling down Lari up. The latter is more important it's up against Dollar Euro just about every currency.
Last year's interim 34p this years 55p.... according to Hargreaves Lansdowne and a couple of other sites. The problem with that is the conversion date is 10 days before dividend payment date. Which is the 20th October (payment date). Dividend is 1.85 Lari. Which converted today is 61p.
Now previous interim dividend was 34p next 61p that is considerably more than 25%. Have I worked this out right 79% higher??
https://georgiatoday.ge/call-for-military-service-is-announced-in-occupied-abkhazia/
Maybe related
Georgia capital didn't fall as far.
Looks like some seriously large director buying. Over £1m ?!
https://www.investegate.co.uk/bank-of-georgia-grp--bgeo-/rns/director-pdmr-shareholding/202209021656211703Y/