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This will carry on until late December I think
There is clearly an exodus
That’s understandable. You disagree with the takeover you move on.
My guess would be if this drops to the 20p sell me we will have a jam tomorrow announcement and maybe some production numbers… ‘we have manufactured 300 a month oct Nov but we are now fully geared for 2000 in December ‘as we scale up manufacturing’….’
That type of thing
But 750 and 250 and we above 20p
That’s promising
I don’t believe it! - yet another late reported sale from yesterday, reported this morning of 750k – no wonder the price tanked yesterday! Sit back and enjoy the white-knuckle ride I suppose – I thought filling my hot petrol leaf blower 10 minutes ago in the workshop was a thrill, but this almost matches it!!
I suspect they are doing some rejigging, and it will settle down over the coming weeks? Who knows what their strategy is and if there’s more to come – We will never know..they could even be setting off against off losses in another share for tax purposes for this tax year or company y/e – Anyway, my tip is to not watch too closely – go and do something else, like blasting leaves around the garden on full throttle!! - GLA
I see another two late reported sale yesterday 100k & 250k – seems like the TMTA boot sale continues for now? – maybe I'm wrong..another RNS re share take up coming up shortly?
Great comments from both Agricore & theboyg… definitely relevant for the coming months, but I think this recent drop is nothing to do with this – the option granting has already been priced in and if anything, flogging them off with these tiny margins should help, rather than when the price is double.
To me it’s seems to be a supply and demand matter, re huge volume of shares being dumped on the market in a short time… if you believe in this share, it’s a great time to top up for the brave…certainly I’ve been buying over the last week, but with 40 years trading under my belt, I have made a few mistakes in my time!! – hopefully it will pay off….to quote the army slogan of the 17th Lancers ‘Death or Glory’ – Lets hope its glory!!
So…
CW22 and Agricore
January trading update
Full production started 30.9.23
What numbers make you think ‘they are on it’
For me I want 1500 a month….
U?
Agricore
You are never rude. Always considered and support your arguments with stats.
CM’s assertion of hysteria less considered but my wife may get along with him
My point is this stock moves on small volume
20,000,000 extra shares
Today 80k traded and down 6%
If 5% of the 20,000,000 want to sell then high teens is a possibility
The price is not reflective of value… never is I suppose whether positively or negatively
Highs of 145 plus when there was no news and lows of now when there is huge news everywhere
This is all about production
And then getting money in.
The company does enjoy a jam tomorrow feel and less what we have done today.
For example. If production was good in October you would like to hear a ‘1500 produced and tested in October’ ‘1900 manufactured in November’ so that we know the factory is churning whilst board members work on future proofing finance
Jan 2023 update
By 31 December 2022 the Company had shipped or received orders for 2,850 X-PLOR units with 1,226 units being shipped in 2022 (2021: 377). As at the year end, the Adjusted EBITDA1 loss is anticipated to be in line with market expectations and retained cash balances of $1.8 million, which together with inventory and inventory deposits, amounted to $11.9 million.
So 2850 done…. 1200 of which 2023
So 1650 units or so 2021
Revenue $1.54 million… on 1600 units… not profit… revenue
Financial Highlights:
· Group revenue of $1.54 million (2021: $0.42 million)
· Adjusted loss from operations of $6.2 million (2021: $4.2 million)
· Basic loss per share of $0.07 (2021: $0.06)
· Net Cash as at 31 December 2022 of $2.04 million
· Inventory and inventory deposits at 31 December 2022 of $10.8 million (2021: $1.8m)
Doesn’t add up. Unless they reduced it 50%… which they stated that they did reduce first tranche
Anyway…
The company has money. Has inventory. Hopefully useful inventory.
They just need to produce and sell and throw 10% at r&d for Discover-r+…. The next model😎
It is a few steps up a huge hill. Production…. And sales are what drives this. All other good news flows freely. But not production and sales
Theboyg can get quite hysterical. Of course anything can happen but wouldn't really make a lot of sense. Either way looking to add some more in the next couple of months. Easing of financial conditions and ramping up on sales should provide for a nice correction.
Boyg, I don't wish to sound rude but you've pointed out before that (in your words) you're not a business person.
Your assertion that without news this will drop to high teens is extremely unlikely. Not to say fanciful and unhelpful.
BELL's share price is almost back down to where it was in May. But what's changed since May?:
-> X-Plor has been releasd to the market
-> NAV is up 1p a share. Do you really think this will drop to just 1 x book value (or lower) which is now at an estimated 19.58p share?!
-> Received an £8m shot in the arm - liquidity.
-> 2 new NEDs from TMTA who bring skills
-> A highly experienced Head of BD who's already more than proven his worth. Mr Bob Fary.
-> Unit selling price for X-Plor has been raised from $2500 to $2750+ i.e. net profit margin per item sold is up $250/unit or more and rev share with Innomax up a forecast $25/unit.
-> $15m of orders received including many for the (much) higher margin X-Plor
-> A $55m 10 year royalty agreement (plus profit share), with a $213bn turnover Chinese manufacturing giant who work with Apple.
-> Product launch in Hong Kong with an addressable market worth £75m in profit in royalty and rev share. That one territory alone is worth more than 2x today's market cap value of BELL.
-> Its ability to be a great option due to its inclusion for CMS E1390 (stationary) and E1392 (portable) reimbursement codes
-> It will also produce nearly three times as much oxygen by weight than its dual flow competitors.
-> Its distribution agreement with McKesson - Europe's largest and US's 3rd largest pharmaceutical distributor.
-> Survived a short sell attack from a popular website which earns a crust by promoting shorts (and some longs)
There may be some other points for the past 6 months but I think I've listed most of the progress.
Why would any of the above mean the company will be worth 25% less than today in the next few weeks?! I don't say fanciful and unhelpful for no reason, Boyg.
These articles provide further detail/substantiation to the above points too:
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-onging-together
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-issimo
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-kong
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-lunder
The fact it's even down at 25p is a minor miracle in my opinion. Completely overlooked by the market.
GLA
It can drop another 24p
High teens without news in next two weeks
Profit taking from TM holders ? , wonder how low this can go
I think you are right that things need time to settle, production to bed in and some hard figures needed. I have a feeling that one or two of the TMTA lot are exercising a few of their cheap options and flogging them off to make a fast buck – or maybe averaging down their remaining shares so they can enjoy the ride for free? – who knows – still think this will come good in a few months and just a case of sticking with it and then we will be celebrating!! Have a good weekend.
I think we see sellers until after Christmas
Those involved in other company not happy to be here
Take a while to balance things
Then new year hopefully some good news to avoid new lows
@theboyg I’d happily accept a bid at 200p !
I think they are discussing take over talks at £2
That was my dream last night
Maybe Monday?
The buy/sell algo is not a good guide. I added recently at 27-28 and it showed as sell
Strange my very modest top up shows as a sell as it's below the SP !
I believe the final 3 for 4 formula has come from a pre-arranged deal that they agreed they would re-align the swap ratio according to how the market had moved TMTA and BELL since 4th October.
If you do the maths between the arbitrage opportunity which existed at the merger announcement - which Hedgehog100 needs to take credit for spotting - and the final deal today, the difference in that arbitrage is very little - almost zero.
In this article:
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-onging-together
"At today’s prices. Yes! Let’s say you hold £10,000 of BELL. That would be 31,250 shares at 32p bid. With the proceeds you could buy 50,000 shares in TMTA at 20p ask. When they convert (50000/27.5m)x(18.75m) you’ll be granted **£10,450 of BELL shares**.
The only risk to this 9% upside is the deal falls through and then you’re stuck with a holding without a purpose, or at least without your intended purpose of picking up BELL shares more cost effectively. I believe the deal will proceed because it makes sense for all parties. Bear in mind if/when the 32p vs 20p differential changes then the window to sell and rebuy closes too."
The 3 for 4 gives you £10,500 today vs £10,450 from the above article on 4th October.
The extra cashflow boost will give BELL that extra boost and I'm very excited for progress in 2024.
GLA
Well there you have it ! , great deal for TM . Cash is now av for Bell to drive forward . This is really great news and should propel the company well in 2024
Yes I don't expect it in trading hrs
They have a habit of telling us how ‘well received’ things are. How things have ‘exceeded expectations’.
Just numbers now please. Not words. How many made. How many sold. The new rental just tells me there are many xplor sat somewhere unsold.And so they have an idea as to how to offload them!
By 5pm we will know if deal is on or off. Whether they have squeezed more out of it. With the money they have a chance to do something with the company beside ‘exceed expectations’
Fingers crossed to you all
That is the question
Taken from HME News - Direct sales exceeding expectations.
LONDON, PLANO, Texas, and SHENZHEN, China – Belluscura, a medical device developer focused on lightweight and portable oxygen technology, says early results on a two-month-old direct to consumer program for its X-PLOR device have exceeded initial expectations. The company has launched a three-pronged direct sales, leasing and short-term rental program for the device that has been well received by customers. "I am very excited about the new direct-to consumer sales program,” said Bob Fary, senior vice president of sales and marketing. “We have identified a potentially significant sales opportunity that not only benefits the company but underrepresented patients, as well." Belluscura sees the DTC program expanding significantly with the launch of the DISCOV-R portable oxygen concentrator. Earlier this month, Belluscura announced that it reached an agreement with TMT Acquisitions, a London-based acquisition vehicle in the technology, media and telecommunications sector, to help grow its portable oxygen concentrator business globally.
I tend to agree Hedgehog100. Just goes to show how tough financing conditions are right now.
Cm,
In my opinion, there's little chance of the deal falling through, because it isn't reliant upon raising any more funds, both sides have completed due diligence, and they've announced today that they expect to announce a firm offer by not later than 5p.m. on Tuesday, which is pretty close.
Though in theory if it did fall through, TMTA shares would likely hold up better than BELL, because of TMTA's cash underpinning.
TMTA's current mid price of 17p is less then its cash per share, for a cash shell where interest on its £4.7M. cash has been covering most of its costs (TMTA's directors aren't currently being paid ... which is in itself impressive & attractive).
In addition, TMTA would find another deal, possibly at an even higher premium.
Note that earlier this year TMTA's then three directors each bought 40,000 TMTA shares for 18.25p/share.
It looks to me that BELL are getting TMTA relatively cheaply, as the percentage premium over TMTA's cash isn't high for a listed cash shell deal.
I think that TMTA have probably agreed to relatively generous terms because they think that BELL is a particularly good opportunity.
But BELL needs TMTA more than vice versa.
The TMTA acquisition still looks a good deal for BELL.
Remember that TMTA's £4.7M. cash is in effect worth a lot more than that to BELL, because of the frequent high cost of raising capital through placings, and possible significant discounts required.
Shells like TMTA also tend to have a very 'sticky' shareholders base, probably more likely to add to their holdings than sell.
Whereas many small company placees may simply be 'stagging' the issue.
There is also the considerable bonus of having TMTA's very impressive 'shellmeisters' on board BELL.
Here are a couple of recent IPOs with placings of several million pounds each, which each paid well over a million pounds in costs:-
From the Tan Delta Systems (TAND) Admission Document, 11 August 2023:-
"Gross proceeds of the Placing receivable by the Company £6.0 million
Estimated net proceeds of the Placing receivable by the Company(2) £4.8 million"
"(2) After deduction of estimated commissions, fees and expenses (excluding VAT) of the Fundraising and Admission payable by the Company of approximately £1.2 million."
https://www.tandeltasystems.com/corporate-governance/
From the Tribe Technology (TRYB) Admission Document, 30 August 2023:-
"Gross proceeds of the Fundraising £4,500,000
(excluding the Retail Subscription Shares)
Estimated net proceeds of the Fundraising2 £3,200,000"
"2 After deduction of estimated commissions, fees and expenses payable by the Group of approximately £1,300,000."
https://tribetechgroup.com/corporate-documents/
Hedgehog100, i suppose the downside is that the deal does not go through and then they don't ultimately hold any BELL shares.