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Closing s.p.s today:-
BELL 35p (32p - 38p).
TMTA 19.5p (19p - 20p).
On the basis that TMTA shareholders will receive 15 BELL shares for every 22 TMTA shares, the current TMTA offer price of 20p/share equates to a BELL offer price of 29.33p/share, i.e. 22.82% less than the current BELL offer price of 38p.
So TMTA is potentially a significantly cheaper way into BELL at the moment than buying BELL shares directly.
It's intended that TMTA non-exec. director Jonathan Satchell will join BELL's board, along with TMTA's newest director Paul Tuson.
"Jonathan Satchell
Non-Executive Director
Jonathan Satchell is Chief Executive of Learning Technologies Group plc (“LTG”). LTG is listed on the AIM market of London Stock Exchange (LTG.L) and headquartered in London. LTG is at the forefront of innovation and best-practice in the learning and talent software sector, and has received numerous awards for its achievements both corporately and for clients.
Jonathan has worked in the training industry since 1992. In 1997 he acquired EBC, which he transformed from a training video provider to a bespoke e-learning company. The company was sold to Futuremedia in 2006. He became interim MD of Epic in 2007 and the following year he acquired the Company with LTG’s chairman. He oversaw the transformation of Epic from a custom content e-learning company to the global, fast growing, full service digital learning and talent management company that LTG has become. Jonathan is also non-executive director of Zappar, the world’s leading augmented reality platform and creative studio."
https://tmtacquisition.com/
LTG's current market cap. is £523 million, at 66.1p/share.
And LTG 40-bagged from its RTO price of 5.88p/share to its high of about 236p in 2021.
TMTA's non-exec . chairman Harry Hyman also has a very impressive track record:-
"Harry Hyman
Non-Executive Chairman
Harry Hyman is a chartered accountant. He is the founder and CEO of Primary Health Properties PLC (“PHP”) a FTSE250 Listed company that specialises in the ownership of property leased on a long term basis to primary care providers in the UK and Ireland. PHP has a property portfolio of over £2.6bn and a consistent record of growth. ..."
https://tmtacquisition.com/
PHP's current market cap. is £1.194 billion, at 89.35p/share.
He was also previously chairman of main-listed cash shell Derriston Capital (DERR), which floated at 10p/share, and which subsequently bagged a massive RTO:-
"Derriston Capital shares soar as trading resumes three months after deal to acquire Sorrell’s S4 Capital
Jon Hopkins
14:40 Fri 14 Sep 2018"
https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/204948/derriston-capital-shares-soar-as-trading-resumes-three-months-after-deal-to-acquire-sorrells-s4-capital-204948.html
And SFOR subsequently nearly 9-bagged from low to high within three years, to a market cap. of billions.
Hedgehog, Harry Hyman isn't joining BELL's board.
That's a really good spot on selling BELL and buying TMTA to convert back to BELL.
Whether it's worth doing is covered in this article: https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-onging-together
@Agricore. Thanks for introducing me to the Oak Bloke as I am impressed with his detailed views and financial analysis. A very readable style too.
Every BELL investor should read his articles, although it has not altered the share price trajectory which is disappointing!!
"Hedgehog, Harry Hyman isn't joining BELL's board."
No Agricore, he's not.
But the impressive track record of TMTA's 'shellmeisters' is relevant anyway.
Because the fact that people of their quality have agreed to a takeover by BELL is a very bullish endorsement of BELL's prospects.
From helpful the article you posted - thanks for that:-
"The only risk to this 9% upside is the deal falls through and then you're stuck with a holding without a purpose."
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-onging-together
In my opinion, there's little chance of the deal falling through, because it isn't reliant upon raising any more funds.
And I can't really see that BELL would fail due diligence either. Though in theory, if it did, TMTA shares would likely hold up better than BELL, because of TMTA's cash underpinning.
In addition, TMTA would find another deal, possibly at an even higher premium.
It look to me that BELL are getting TMTA relatively cheaply, as the percentage premium over TMTA's cash isn't high for a RTO deal.
I think that TMTA have probably agreed to relatively generous terms because they think that BELL is a particularly good opportunity.
RBoC holding 5.25million shares / 3.87%
Looks a new holding to me
Anyone care to comment please ?
A good endorsement I would say
Current s.p.s today:-
BELL 35p (31p - 38p).
TMTA 19.5p (19p - 20p).
On the basis that TMTA shareholders will receive 15 BELL shares for every 22 TMTA shares, the current TMTA offer price of 20p/share equates to a BELL offer price of 29.33p/share, i.e. 22.82% less than the current BELL offer price of 38p.
Or to put it another way, the current BELL offer price is 26.15% more.
Why pay that much more when you don't have too?
And there looked to be a few BELL-TMTA trades yesterday that were taking advantage of this attractive arbitrage play, albeit the differential isn't as great if you are selling BELL first to buy TMTA.
"BELL 35p (31p - 38p)."
That should of course say:-
BELL 34.5p (31p - 38p).
These are what look to be three BELL-TMTA arbitrage trades on Thursday:-
Belluscura (BELL)
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
05-Oct-23 12:31:16 32.7501 7,500 Sell* 32.00 38.00 2,456 O
05-Oct-23 10:39:32 32.722 7,377 Sell* 32.00 38.00 2,414 O
05-Oct-23 10:38:50 33.00 30,000 Sell* 32.00 38.00 9,900 O
TMT Acquisition (TMTA)
Date Time Trade Prc Volume Buy/Sell Bid Ask Value
05-Oct-23 12:31:55 20.40 12,000 Buy* 19.00 21.00 2,448 O
05-Oct-23 10:40:31 19.80 50,198 Unknown* 19.00 20.00 9,939 O
05-Oct-23 10:41:02 19.80 11,464 Buy* 19.00 20.00 2,270 O
The seller of the 30,000 BELL trade looks to have bought 50,198 TMTA with the proceeds.
On the basis that TMTA shareholders will receive 15 BELL shares for every 22 TMTA shares, this trader should receive 34,225 BELL shares for these 50,198 TMTA shares.
I.e. a likely free 4,225 BELL shares: worth £1,394 at the current BELL mid price of 33p.
And if Jonathan Satchell 40-bags BELL, as he did with Learning Technologies Group (LTG), 4,225 BELL shares could be worth over £50K.
Which wouldn't be a bad return for what looks to have been an essentially a risk-free arbitrage trade!
The BELL-TMTA arbitrage benefit has now narrowed, but the window of opportunity is still open.
Logically though you would expect it to narrow further and close, due to further arbitrage trading, & investors buying TMTA as a likely discounted route into BELL.
The current BELL & TMTA mid s.p.s & spreads, with their equivalents based on 15 BELL shares for every 22 TMTA shares:-
BELL: 30p (28p – 32p): equates to 20.45p (19.09p – 21.81p) TMTA
TMTA: 18.5p (17p – 20p): equates to 27.13p (24.93p – 29.33p) BELL
Opportunity missed then
Seaman,
There are different (though related) opportunities re the BELL-TMTA pricing relationship: the arbitrage opportunity, i.e. selling BELL to buy TMTA; and just buying TMTA directly instead of BELL.
The arbitrage opportunity looks to have closed, unless you can get well inside the spread the spread in each case, although there might be brief opportunities in the future when it temporarily reopens.
But TMTA is still potentially a significantly cheaper way into BELL than buying BELL directly.
I am GUILTY. I confess to selling part of my BELL holding (7500) and buying 12000 TMTA in its place.
My motivation - as previously suggested, it's an arbitrage situation.
There is risk; the proposed deal may not materialise.
There is reward; the equity exchange of 15 to 22 implies that a holder of TMTA will benefit when the deal happens.
Arbitrage situations, by their very nature, implode naturally due to uneven buy and sell pressures on each name. I wasn't particularly early into this arb and my opinion is that this opportunity has now closed. My flip made an unrealised book gain of around 10%, which pleased me as I was having a sandwich and a cuppa at the time!
For what it's worth, I have been a holder of TEK and BELL for a long time and I'm sitting on losses on both names. However, I believe that BELL is fundamentally solid. Holders should start seeing a steady SP uplift when production increases but we should not expect anything remotely meteoric and nothing for at least 12 months. My investments are based entirely on fundamentals but I got my entry level wrong for my BELL risk, my break even is 72p....boo! I trade occasionally , when I sense an opportunity such as this, to lower my break even price.
Good luck everyone and keep smiling. 😁
Dogface49 - Bless you and thank you for your confession - Pray for Forgiveness of Sins, Renewal, and Repentance. You are forgiven “the power and glory, forever and ever, amen” !! :)
Dogface
Your manner and demeanour I aspire to
Dog , good on you that's a prudent move . Although I'm confident that the funding will ultimately mean better things for Bell I can't see it propelling the SP for sometime to come , slightly annoyed at buying at around 36p !
Rome wasn't built and all that
GLA
The current BELL & TMTA mid s.p.s & spreads, with their equivalents based on 15 BELL shares for every 22 TMTA shares:-
BELL: 29p (28p – 30p): equates to 19.77p (19.09p – 20.45p) TMTA
TMTA: 17.0p (16p – 18p): equates to 24.93p (23.47p – 26.4p) BELL
BELL has now moved up to 30p (29p - 31p), with TMTA still at 17p (16p - 18p).
So based on 15 BELL shares for every 22 TMTA shares, the current BELL bid price of 29p, equating to 19.77p TMTA, is about 10% higher than the TMTA offer price.
And it could be even more than 10% if you can get inside one or both prices.
Based on 15 BELL shares for every 22 TMTA shares, the current BELL offer price of 31p, equating to 21.14p TMTA, is over 17% higher than the current TMTA offer price of 18p!
Of course both may be cheap, but why pay that much more when you don't have to?
I would add that TMTA's current mid price of 17p is less then its cash per share, for a cash shell where interest on its £4.7M. cash has been covering most of its costs (TMTA's directors aren't currently being paid ... which is in itself impressive & attractive).
And earlier this year TMTA's then three directors each bought 40,000 TMTA shares for 18.25p/share:-
4th Jan 2023 8:46 am RNS Director/PDMR Shareholding
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/TMTA/directorpdmr-shareholding-2v5l6xkooafex1j.html
You will note from that RNS that TMTA directors Harry Hyman & Jonathan Satchell, both of whom have a billion-pound track record (which is a fairly extraordinary combination for a shell), each own getting on for about 5% of TMTA.
And out of all the multiple of offers they have received, they are putting their faith, and shares, into BELL.
Which is I think a pretty impressive validation of BELL's future prospects.
TMTA is I think the 'gold standard' amongst AIM's numerous very small cap. shells: the track record of its 'shellmeisters', and its relatively high level of cash, both marking it out as being a cut above the average shell.
So for BELL to have captured TMTA in the way it has is a major coup for the company, which bodes very well for its future prospects.
Ongoing selling to buy TM
Zero TMT trades. Post results it’s been clear someone is clearing out
They still selling
It’s now about making device and good quality
And good quantity
Someone large is getting out. But not us
You'd be hard pushed to find more confident-sounding outlook statements than BELL's recently.
But it's not just words: it's backed up by a new $55M. royalty deal, and attracting the investment of TMTA's billion-pound track record 'shellmeisters'.
And now with the requisite funding arranged, the company is all set to really start motoring.
BELL's market cap. could certainly be hundreds of millions within a few years I would think, and indeed this share looks to have excellent ten-bagger potential from its current level of just 27p.
13th Sep 2023 7:00 am RNS Half-year Report
" ... Post Period End:
Transformational Exclusive License and Royalty Generating Agreement with InnoMax
• Belluscura exclusively licensed its proprietary technology to InnoMax in China, Hong Kong, Macau and Singapore in a deal valued at $55m in minimum royalties over the term of the license ...
Adam Reynolds, Chairman of Belluscura, commented:
"The team at Belluscura has made considerable headway which will enable significant momentum in the business.
"We believe the signing of the groundbreaking Exclusive License and Royalty Generating Agreement with InnoMax, an affiliate of the world's leading electronics manufacturing company, will be transformational for the Group.
"Belluscura is, therefore, well positioned to achieve its expectations in the coming years. The initial response from the market in the Group's products is hugely positive and, as we scale up the business, we expect substantial growth over the coming years, leaving the Board highly confident in Belluscura's future." ...
Outlook
We have made considerable progress with building the foundations for significant growth in the coming years.
Trading since the period end is in line with our expectations for the full year, which is significantly second half weighted. Demand for X-PLOR®, which is predominantly a Direct-to-Consumer unit, is growing, and we expect that our affiliation with GoodRX, and our own direct sales will lead to significantly higher Gross Margins as we utilise the Company's previously high inventory levels.
The demand and orders already received for DISCOV-R are very exciting, and we believe the signing of the groundbreaking Exclusive License and Royalty Generating Agreement with InnoMax, an affiliate of the world's leading electronics manufacturing company, will be transformational for the Group.
The Company is well positioned to deliver substantial growth in the coming years, and we look forward to the future with confidence. ..."
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/BELL/half-year-report-4yrkeunjaw1bwfs.html
"Did you know that the technology in today’s oxygen concentrators is basically unchanged from oxygen tech from the 1970s? We need to do better! Join us to raise awareness and support for those on oxygen therapy leading up to #WorldOxygenDay on October 2nd.
For the last 40 years, supplemental oxygen therapy has been a mainstay treatment for millions of people of all ages living with respiratory problems. These people rely upon oxygen therapy to relieve the symptoms like breathlessness and limited activity caused by chronic problems like COPD, as well as more acute conditions like pneumonia and sleep problems. Despite its ability to add years to people’s lives and life to their years, advancements in oxygen therapy technology have been very slow to happen. The COVID-19 pandemic made the problem even worse by increasing the demand for oxygen equipment as well as straining supply chains. Many people who could benefit from oxygen therapy do not use it as prescribed because of the inconvenience, the cost, or the stigma that can be attached to it.
There are simply too many systemic challenges for people to use oxygen therapy effectively to live their best lives. World Oxygen Day was created to change that.
Sign up to get involved: copdf.co/worldO2Day
Learn more about World Oxygen Day: www.worldoxygenday.org "
https://www.copdfoundation.org/Take-Action/Get-Involved/World-Oxygen-Day.aspx
There are multiple points from this piece of relevance to BELL:-
1. The outdated oxygen technology, that BELL is 'disrupting'.
2. The long-standing (decades) importance of oxygen treatment.
3. The COVID-19 pandemic increasing demand for oxygen equipment.
These points help to explain why, in my opinion, BELL is the most exciting UK new issue of the last few years.
And perhaps of the forseeable future too, if the support of TMTA's billion-pound track record 'shellmeisters' is anything to go by.