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Profit taking from TM holders ? , wonder how low this can go
It can drop another 24p
High teens without news in next two weeks
Boyg, I don't wish to sound rude but you've pointed out before that (in your words) you're not a business person.
Your assertion that without news this will drop to high teens is extremely unlikely. Not to say fanciful and unhelpful.
BELL's share price is almost back down to where it was in May. But what's changed since May?:
-> X-Plor has been releasd to the market
-> NAV is up 1p a share. Do you really think this will drop to just 1 x book value (or lower) which is now at an estimated 19.58p share?!
-> Received an £8m shot in the arm - liquidity.
-> 2 new NEDs from TMTA who bring skills
-> A highly experienced Head of BD who's already more than proven his worth. Mr Bob Fary.
-> Unit selling price for X-Plor has been raised from $2500 to $2750+ i.e. net profit margin per item sold is up $250/unit or more and rev share with Innomax up a forecast $25/unit.
-> $15m of orders received including many for the (much) higher margin X-Plor
-> A $55m 10 year royalty agreement (plus profit share), with a $213bn turnover Chinese manufacturing giant who work with Apple.
-> Product launch in Hong Kong with an addressable market worth £75m in profit in royalty and rev share. That one territory alone is worth more than 2x today's market cap value of BELL.
-> Its ability to be a great option due to its inclusion for CMS E1390 (stationary) and E1392 (portable) reimbursement codes
-> It will also produce nearly three times as much oxygen by weight than its dual flow competitors.
-> Its distribution agreement with McKesson - Europe's largest and US's 3rd largest pharmaceutical distributor.
-> Survived a short sell attack from a popular website which earns a crust by promoting shorts (and some longs)
There may be some other points for the past 6 months but I think I've listed most of the progress.
Why would any of the above mean the company will be worth 25% less than today in the next few weeks?! I don't say fanciful and unhelpful for no reason, Boyg.
These articles provide further detail/substantiation to the above points too:
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-onging-together
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-issimo
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-kong
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-lunder
The fact it's even down at 25p is a minor miracle in my opinion. Completely overlooked by the market.
GLA
Theboyg can get quite hysterical. Of course anything can happen but wouldn't really make a lot of sense. Either way looking to add some more in the next couple of months. Easing of financial conditions and ramping up on sales should provide for a nice correction.
Agricore
You are never rude. Always considered and support your arguments with stats.
CM’s assertion of hysteria less considered but my wife may get along with him
My point is this stock moves on small volume
20,000,000 extra shares
Today 80k traded and down 6%
If 5% of the 20,000,000 want to sell then high teens is a possibility
The price is not reflective of value… never is I suppose whether positively or negatively
Highs of 145 plus when there was no news and lows of now when there is huge news everywhere
This is all about production
And then getting money in.
The company does enjoy a jam tomorrow feel and less what we have done today.
For example. If production was good in October you would like to hear a ‘1500 produced and tested in October’ ‘1900 manufactured in November’ so that we know the factory is churning whilst board members work on future proofing finance
Jan 2023 update
By 31 December 2022 the Company had shipped or received orders for 2,850 X-PLOR units with 1,226 units being shipped in 2022 (2021: 377). As at the year end, the Adjusted EBITDA1 loss is anticipated to be in line with market expectations and retained cash balances of $1.8 million, which together with inventory and inventory deposits, amounted to $11.9 million.
So 2850 done…. 1200 of which 2023
So 1650 units or so 2021
Revenue $1.54 million… on 1600 units… not profit… revenue
Financial Highlights:
· Group revenue of $1.54 million (2021: $0.42 million)
· Adjusted loss from operations of $6.2 million (2021: $4.2 million)
· Basic loss per share of $0.07 (2021: $0.06)
· Net Cash as at 31 December 2022 of $2.04 million
· Inventory and inventory deposits at 31 December 2022 of $10.8 million (2021: $1.8m)
Doesn’t add up. Unless they reduced it 50%… which they stated that they did reduce first tranche
Anyway…
The company has money. Has inventory. Hopefully useful inventory.
They just need to produce and sell and throw 10% at r&d for Discover-r+…. The next model😎
It is a few steps up a huge hill. Production…. And sales are what drives this. All other good news flows freely. But not production and sales
I see another two late reported sale yesterday 100k & 250k – seems like the TMTA boot sale continues for now? – maybe I'm wrong..another RNS re share take up coming up shortly?
Great comments from both Agricore & theboyg… definitely relevant for the coming months, but I think this recent drop is nothing to do with this – the option granting has already been priced in and if anything, flogging them off with these tiny margins should help, rather than when the price is double.
To me it’s seems to be a supply and demand matter, re huge volume of shares being dumped on the market in a short time… if you believe in this share, it’s a great time to top up for the brave…certainly I’ve been buying over the last week, but with 40 years trading under my belt, I have made a few mistakes in my time!! – hopefully it will pay off….to quote the army slogan of the 17th Lancers ‘Death or Glory’ – Lets hope its glory!!
I don’t believe it! - yet another late reported sale from yesterday, reported this morning of 750k – no wonder the price tanked yesterday! Sit back and enjoy the white-knuckle ride I suppose – I thought filling my hot petrol leaf blower 10 minutes ago in the workshop was a thrill, but this almost matches it!!
I suspect they are doing some rejigging, and it will settle down over the coming weeks? Who knows what their strategy is and if there’s more to come – We will never know..they could even be setting off against off losses in another share for tax purposes for this tax year or company y/e – Anyway, my tip is to not watch too closely – go and do something else, like blasting leaves around the garden on full throttle!! - GLA
This will carry on until late December I think
There is clearly an exodus
That’s understandable. You disagree with the takeover you move on.
My guess would be if this drops to the 20p sell me we will have a jam tomorrow announcement and maybe some production numbers… ‘we have manufactured 300 a month oct Nov but we are now fully geared for 2000 in December ‘as we scale up manufacturing’….’
That type of thing
But 750 and 250 and we above 20p
That’s promising
Looks like it's tek doing the flogging...didn't see that coming!!!
Out in the shed at the moment having a coffee...I'll look into it later...I'm useless on these mobile type things and use desktop for serious stuff!!
Buyer of 750K, already shareholder at 4.69%– According to Bloomberg - “Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited operates as an investment management firm. The Company offers wealth and asset management services for private and institutional clients.” Incorporated 2009 – employing 135 according to December 2022 accounts. Refer you to Companies House for full accounts – A plus for me to see an established investment firm increasing their holding.
Boyg
In my article:
https://theoakbloke.substack.com/p/bell-issimo
I’m working on a Discov-r 500 units a month US and 125 via innomax in Q4 rising in Q1 next quarter. With the same level for X-plor.
So I’m assuming 33% less than you just because of gearing up takes time
More buys than sells, yet down 2% – another late report sell to appear tonight or tomorrow morning?