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Most of my portfolio is in funds. Currently majority in 40-85% shares but fair bit of cash (from Jan). Latest was bought income trackers. Rest is in low risk stuff or in my share account.
Where do people think the index is going. I'm thinking to put even more into cash and wait for the tumble from second wave, american civil war and recession hitting Europe
Chuck it all in Avacta. I think the current main market rally will be short lived as the true economic fall out hasn’t hit home, the measures have just delayed it. Never mind the threat of an incoming second wave - which will be fully averted thanks to Sir Al, saviour of the universe
I'm gradually researching stocks which should be good for catching the recovery, but I'm not buying anything yet. It's too soon I think.
This said, I geneuinly believe Avacta's test will be a turning point. So assuming all goes well, that's the time I'll start buying in readiness for the recovery.
2/3rds in cash, cannot bring myself to invest for the long term as the markets feel very over extended.
On the other hand there is so much liquidity about, hence the disconnect between the markets and reality......Hard to call, but as Im retired, I'm playing safe....ish
RD - with regards to where the index may be going. Look at what the FED has done, and is likely to do, and that will give you the answer...
Second wave - priced in.
Civil unrest - priced in.
Hard recession - priced in.
Vaccine before 2021 - priced in.
Trump re-elected - priced in.
Q3 +Q4 earnings being terrible - priced in.
20%+ unemployment rate - priced in.
This is turning in to a cracking thread.
Agree Hants, that’s my plan, once Avacta have put Operation Sir Al Saves The World wheels in to motion I’ll consider looking for places to put in money that will hopefully recover well. Anything that’s suffered most but isn’t riddled with debt would be my starting point.
Chengdo, love it and fully agree.
Yes indeed PL75. My strategy sounds the same as yours. For instance, MCS is one I'm bullish about, at least when the time is right. In March they had an available cash balance of 127m. Shares currently at 50% of pre crash value.
Please note: Not a cross ramp as I have absolutely no holding there at present.
Quite like the risky ones... Carnival raised a bunch of cash so should be solid and have a huge way to go to get back to their previous levels. I’m pretty sure testing on cruises will be a key market for Avacta :-)
Also thinking about hospitality, maybe IHG. Hollywood Bowl for entertainment perhaps. Dart group for travel. Plenty out there. Likewise, no recommendations here, just ideas for now.
And a house builder.
Wouldn’t mind some income shares too. Then if Avacta has got high enough to find them I can retire... nice to dream, we’re not all mole catchers.
I don't agree that all of these items are "priced in". Markets are pricing in a quick recovery it seems, but not some of the terrible things you mention. In any case, single case companies such as Avacta, if they deliver, should do well regardless of the economic backdrop.
yeah I'm not convinced things are priced in. More I feel that money needs to go somewhere. There is risk but the returns elsewhere are poor and so risk is accepted (especially give fund manager gets paid regardless). Given the levels of some stocks, it looks like there is a strong assumption everyone is going to keep ordering iphones, playing games, and ordering plastic stuff online (US market anyway). If the is a big down turn, iphones etc will probably not be the top of a lot of peoples shopping list.
Holding long on AVCT. C-19 situation/test is +ve for AVCT, in 12 months time scale but I more feel it will give them a spring board to enter other markets as well 3-5 years. Cash in the bank really helps fire a company expansion:-)
Chen - I'm filling up
Oil be there - I'm googling at least four of the words you said
I'm also thinking income but healthcare offers growth as well but main players are looking a tad pricey. Avacta is a short term **** or bust at this price but offers long term return - my last 10x took 6 years.
I think the market is going to go South - all based on lower economic activity for awhile. Some sectors hit worse then others - interesting thought about cruises - personally I think they are screwed but good luck. Molecatching is looking good - to be honest its a defensibe play that one.
I don't have the courage yey but want to move to high cash within pension - about 30%, 30% bonds / gilts - rest is growth / medium risk inc income funds (I'm with Aviv a for pension and cannot buy individual stocks plus having that there enables me to run my own portfolio - if it all goes tits IP I have enough for a bag of coal and bread.
I think index will be fall to 5200/during Sept and finish at 5499. But based on nothing more than finger in wind
RD, I had a pension with Aviva, I transferred it into a SIPP and have managed it ever since. Over 5 years it has grown by 1000%. If I had left it with Aviva I would be around 33% up.
This pensions are such a con and the charges are so high!
Makes you think. If we have a second wave the global market will have a much deeper and longer drop. Being able to be in the right sectors at times like those is going to be critical. People want safe places to hold there money and many fund managers are stuck in the rules of there funds. That is bad news. So folks now is the time to be smart.
Gold is one area, oil is not an area. But Healthcare and Biotechs are the new tech stocks and the right ones will go ballistic.
If we take AXA Framlington Healthcare fund, it has increased 20% in 6 weeks. Balanced amongst the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world.
Avacta has increased over 200%!
Food for thought!
Cheers RK
Thanks RK. Never thought of going SIPP route partly cause risk adverse for that bit. Tend towards low cost trackers or lifestyle funds - my younger self doesn't want to hack off my older self
In terms of ISA and share account currently holding 8 stocks of which 7 are healthcare. Due to Avacta I'm well ahead of Axa.
I guess I'm holding so much cash with Aviv a cause I'm not sure where else to put it while I sit on sidelines.
In terms of SIPP can you invest in funds cheaper than being with Aviv a
Beg to differ RK. BPC is an interesting oil play at the right price with result due in December. I take your point Oil in general is risky atm for many reasons. I too will look at my SIPP. Just discovered an old GAN pension that I thought was dead and buried long ago!
Cheers.
Lol RK, I’m in a similar boat. Rather than use a sipp, I have put Mrs Treks into her stocks and shares isa (I don’t know why they call it that it’s the same) maxing out over the last 4 years.
Obviously ISA is cheaper and more flexible. It is 344% up in that time and that’s with the last £20k only just going in. It also allows for US/China trades wars, North Korea, Syria, POO bust, Brexit and Covid!
She also has a small private pension which we are crystallising as per the new rules next month. Why because she’d need to live to 180 to get the money back over taking the cash! Lol!
If there are any IFA’s that can explain what exactly it is you get for the charges i’d be interested to know.
Trek
Trumps done for the day, so wheres the big launch that well respected member promised us??
https://factba.se/topic/calendar
1pm tomorrow?
Dryland you are obsessed with a 1pm RNS how many times!! Avacta only do 7ams ;)
but you had me converted...damn
Don't start , that's the Awacta board
timster
what do you think the chances are here for some gains
tsbs: Very high imho and significantly better than on my FRR shares I suspect! SGS
If anyone is looking for a bit of ISA advice, you should ask Umar Kamani.
As well as the LSE Awacta board and GSK (why?), he also had a tab on ISAs open :-)