I guess the big money has flown away, mainly to the east. Covid hasn't gone away, and can still make people pretty poorly (and yes it is still a killer for some).
For someone running a business, the last ting you want as recovery happens if for half your workforce to call in laid up in bed. Protecting productivity will be a priority for many, and the best way to do that is to issue LFD to employees. If you are not feeling well, take the test. If +ve send image to HR and stay at home for a week. If -ve, follow advice, pick up another LFD from the office.
In addition for asymptomatic, test every one on a given day.
the cost of protecting productivity is minor compared to spreading illness through the organisation. Less than the coffee machine costs.
Protecting means using a test which is good quality, why spend money on crap (different if test are paid for by public purse). Maybe some marketing to get this message across would be appropriate early through summer. Even though peak money has gone, a steady flow of cash into the business 6 month a year would give it a good base for operations, and if that happens should raise SP nicely.
anyone thinks differently, I kinda think I am just crossing my fingers to be honest.
hmmm so the share a few years ago was worth on this day 2020 24-28p
1. since then we have had a debacle where company has shown it lacks experience in a goto market plan in the DX space.
On the plus side
1. lots of money in the bank to drive TX 2. phase 1 of a drug started 3. 2nd candidate announced (although there have been news before) 4. others believing in the TX tech and partnering to take it to big markets
so the share has doubled on the +ve in 2 years.
I think any further decline is SP would be odd, just looking at how the market prices risk/reward generally.
The current SP is odd. TO ca 3 -5 billion would not be an unreasonable expectation with similar deals in the past, but time needed to reduce risk for big pharma. Thats a nice risk/reward in my book if you can wait.
so only conclusion is loss of confidence in CEO performance last week, and that mainly around DX.
so fix is easy, switch out CEO for someone with a better take it to market/manufacture profile, or become better at working with DX partners by placement of someone with that experience. Avacta have had affimers on books for a long time and have struggled to DX partner despite many possible applications. I don't know why, if it's something technical it would be interesting to know. I suspect it's a mental inability to allow others make lots of money from your commodity IP (antibody = commodity) combined with no experience in the heavy lift of production/sales.
alternative, suck it up, and wait for TX which is the main carrier if value. I have enough in this share to hurt, but young enough not to panic over timescale. Not buying even at this price, but only cos I spread my investments.
the donkey **** of " success is just 2 weeks away", and "an antibody is easy to replace" has pretty much shown the promoters to be either naive in the extreme or pumadumpers. Never coming back with reasoned arguments or even "its an appraisal that might be wrong", but instead trying to secure their own position by throwing insults and arrogance. Hopefully they have now moved on. Maybe over to DDDD (ouch) or EQT (double ouch)
I think the share price could recover quickly with a plan for DX. Maybe not Covid LFD, but something to generate a feeling of a future revenue stream instead of the shrug of the shoulders and a "well what ya gonna do, init" we got from CEO last week. Get some deals done where affimers are used in the field. Otherwise it looks like CEO is just throwing money as ideas without any real business understanding.
Of course TX new could change SP quickly, but timescales are quite long, and not a lot company can do to change those, other than license something out.
86da, thank you for that answer. I think a cohort just mean population all meeting certain criteria and in some cases a cohort may just be one sample. But then no one would expect a significant answer from that.
In this case original plan is for each cohort/group to have 3 patients in it before next cohort/group is dosed at higher dosage and in that cohort there would be 3 new subjects. Why then was cohort 1 a population size of 4, was the plan changed?
extremely aware that subject were in serious condition and don't want to be insensitive. Just wondering what 3+3 means, and on interview it said plan was 3+3 and we could take that as read.
RE: A question for the virologists out there09 Feb 2022 17:23
depends on frequency of each old variant. My understanding is omnicron has replaced the older variants, so they are less prevalent, and therefore a new mutation less likely to appear based on old variant (function on number of individuals in population). But viable mutations also don't happen equally across the genome.
Omnicron seem to have an advantage over older variants, but yeah if older mutates it might be more adapted to conditions somewhere (see Darwin). That might be detectable or not. But as Omnicron out there, a test would need to detect it as well as any new variant, otherwise Omnicron gains an advantage (like camouflage) and increases in frequency.
linked to why vaccination across the world is important. Lower frequency of occurrence , the less opportunity for mutation to occur, less risk to us all.
it was an odd interview. If anyone was using DX in a valuation, then yesterday was a kick in the nadgers.
It's one thing to say " this will take time", and another to say we have licensed affirmers to replace antibodies which is a huge market but we don't think they can generate any money any where soon. He looked defeated, no energy at all about DX. It's been a couple of hard years, and a learning curve.
SP reacting to doubt on the ability of the CEO to make judgement calls about executing a product strategy. Be interesting to see what terms were offered to potential DX partners in the past. Maybe a bit more humility and better terms so others can make money off the back of affimers, might actually bring in more money. Better a small piece of a big cake than talking about owning a whole cake one day. How many DX deals have been done for others to licence.
we have been here before not too long ago. Traders might be having a field day, good on them.
RE: New V-0-X markets interview just released...07 Feb 2022 16:33
Al wouldn't comment on his feeling for status of trail (inappropriate), which is fair enough. Delay seems to be cos of covid wave, again fair enough. No nittty detail but not too much waffle either.
LFD...basically wasn't even mentioned in the recap of upcoming news, and neither was any other DX product line. Shame, but at least it clears the deck for valuation. Think many had already got there. So much for it being a quick and easy route to revenue.
on the whole nothing amazing, but solid enough interview
Today saw emotions running high, not sure why, maybe just after so much “delighted” and “soon, having a real bit of information gave some people a brain short circuit. Expect tomorrow will see some expert ramping about 4billion market cap and ball in the back of the net etc hope it’s a bit more creative then posts of late, random timeline would be nice to see again. I think Marik is also MIA, some of his post were lost like tears in the rain. Has admin slapped his wrists?