Member Info for travel_light

Video from someone whose wife on Dox(I think).

Puts perspective on things.

https://youtu.be/Z76jba2kDXE?si=SynX_udVZe7cLcTZ

Warm feeling for SGC but 100%? Lots of step to go. 50/50 seems about right if it gets to phase 3.

Current treatment SGC is surgery from my understanding. Does improved early detection make this treatment more likely ?

Did a quick search about phase 3 success

“ Phase III rates rose to 66%, far above the 56% 10-year pre-pandemic average.”

https://www.iqvia.com/insights/the-iqvia-institute/reports-and-publications/reports/global-trends-in-r-and-d-2024-activity-productivity-and-enablers

hi pl, good to see you are here, confidence boost if nothing else. have to admit put this one in a drawer with don’t open till 2025. pretty much ignored it once it became really obvious that prof alan house had been paid for but the lfd wasn’t the golden goose.

nice to see new management team, even if some of moves are bloody painful. i could think of better ways of blowing 10 million.

tend to lean towards what you are saying. two threads and product lines with different production, distribution and sales is bloody difficult to pull off when you need every penny. ho hum, no use crying over spilt milk and look to future as was pointed out.

wasn’t expecting to be told to f*** off within 3 posts but it warmed the ****les of my heart. not of the standard of his lordship thou which was disappointing. my own response was hardly oscar wilde thou :-) got to remember the rule about posting after that third

guess some people over committed and don’t enjoy roller coasters. now all we need is a laminated sheet with how much money we will make. be an interesting ride from here although feeling i’m getting is put it back in drawer and open 2027 .if it passes it will rocket, if it fails unlikely to catch it before mm crash it. dilution likely as you say, and no need to get knickers it a twist.

cheers tl

thanks.

100 billion thou, wow how did you get there? not doubting, genuin interest.

i looked at enhertu, which is licensed at astra zeneca from daiichi sankyo. 1,35 billion dollars upfront with revenue share. ds oncology unit has 2024 3,5 billion revenue across multiple products representing ca 25% of revenue (12-13 billion). ds cap is 44 billion, so say 25 % of that for oncology gives market cap of 11 billion from oncology.

enhertu is modern breast cancer drug and ds biggest but not only revenue generator in oncology.

i’d thought 4 billion market cap for avacta just for 6000 and that’s pretty sweet gain, well worth wait and pain.

back of a *** packet stuff thou. if tech can be licensed out which would make sense it will be multiples of that. not sure 100 billion in medium term, but who knows it would be awesome. a “just a can we test drug x license “would be worth shed loads.

anyone else got valuation they think is likely ?

Wow, they must be on fire, you have my sympathies. Do you need to sit on a rubber ring?

Yeah, the last few years from the Covid highs (there is an expression that doesn’t sit well), and through dosage escalations ,were a learning experience for me. Worth the wait if it can get to market both as a treatment and investment. Happy to sit and wait for trials to complete, although financing is a pain I’m the arse, although not as bad as your issue SB.

Shame you think a “anyone has thought about pros cons of X” question is spreading doubt

Especially on an investment forum whose sole purpose is discussion ?

Fear….maybe clearing the decks for external partner?

If that is a negative and fearful for you might want to take a rest. Maybe see a doctor for the dingle-berry’s, I’m sure they could help.

Love and kisses TL

thanks gmcc.

three wheels on my wagon :-d paints a picture. silk purse from pigs ear is one thing but it seems to have been the other way round.

the buying and then selling diagnostic was odd, looking for insight as to what was going on.

trials take time. getting rid of diagnostics could point to shed load of confidence in therapeutics , a demand or a “oh **** we need cash”. i don’t have a good feel of either.

safebreaker was that meant to be pithy or edgy. you need to try harder otherwise you just come over as someone whose jumbo sized tube of preparation h hasn’t worked.

cheers

My own thought, getting rid of diagnostic in such a short time points to incompetence or that another player won’t come onboard with that parachute. Company much cleaner to understand for external players including any market move eh Nasdaq, acquisition, license including options etc

But incompetence is not unusual.

Continued

Snapshot themes:

Timelines extended (COVID LFD, AVA6000); mixed M&A track record (paid ~£31 m+, sold for ~£15 m gross); repeated equity raises and £55 m convertible facility; leadership churn; Affimer®/pre|CISION® IP retained in Therapeutics arm.

⸻

🔮 Avacta 2025–2027: Key Things to Watch

1. Clinical Trial Milestones

• AVA6000 Phase I/IIa: watch for safety/tolerability readouts and first meaningful efficacy data — proof-of-concept moment.

• Other pre|CISION® assets (AVA3996, AVA1000 series): preclinical disclosures and funding needed for trials.

2. Financing / Cash Runway

• Monitor remaining capacity and conversion schedule on Yorkville facility.

• Current cash runway into Q1 2026 but Phase II requires more capital — equity raise or partner deal likely.

3. Strategic Partnerships

• Look for co-development or licensing of pre|CISION® or Affimer® technology to bring in non-dilutive cash.

• Watch for outsourcing or new manufacturing/clinical partnerships.

4. Regulatory / IP Position

• Affimer patents renewals and any disputes.

• Fast Track or Orphan Drug designations could boost valuation.

5. Leadership & Execution

• New CEO Dr Christina Coughlin and CFO Brian Hahn — can they deliver on timelines?

• Regular, clear trial updates needed to rebuild investor trust.

6. Risks

• Clinical risk: pre|CISION® may fail to beat standard doxorubicin.

• Funding/dilution risk: extended trials with no partner deals will mean more equity issuance.

• Market sentiment: past delays and M&A losses weigh on credibility; positive data and disciplined communication required for recovery.

Quick monitor list: next AVA6000 update; remaining Yorkville capacity; any licensing/big-pharma deals; 2026 annual report for cash/pipeline/IP position.

⸻

Executive takeaway:

Avacta raised big money during COVID to build diagnostics and promised rapid oncology progress. It then spent heavily on acquisitions, took on a convertible debt facility, but ended up selling its diagnostics arm at a loss while timelines for its flagship cancer trial slipped. Today it is a lean oncology biotech with unique Affimer®/pre|CISION® IP, extended timelines, and a need to secure partners or new funding to prove its science.

Been a long while, put this one in the don’t worry till later drawer.

Tried to read forum but same old same old. Thought to ask ChatGPT instead. Not as entertaining but interesting.

Has the almighty AI got it right ? Any insight other than everyone is working in a basement with multiple personalities ?

📝 Avacta 2020–2025: From Pandemic Tests to Oncology Pivot

2020 – COVID diagnostics promise

• Apr 2020: Partnered with Cytiva to develop Affimer-based lateral flow COVID test.

• Mid–Late 2020: Medusa19 signed up to distribute tests.

• Cash: Raised ~£48 m in a placing (June 2020) to fund AffiDX test scale-up and therapeutics pipeline.

• Message: Avacta positioned as a fast-moving diagnostics innovator.

2021 – First approvals but slow commercialisation

• Jun 2021: AffiDX COVID test receives CE mark for professional use (EU/UK).

• Late 2021: Announced need to re-engineer test for Omicron variant, delaying roll-out.

• Financing: Follow-on placing (~£65 m April 2021) to support pre|CISION® trials.

• Message: The virus changed faster than their test.

2022 – Expansion into diagnostics + new debt

• Oct 2022: Acquired Launch Diagnostics for £24 m upfront + up to £13 m earn-out.

• Nov 2022: Issued convertible bonds to Yorkville Advisors (YA II PN Ltd) — up to £55 m facility to fund working capital and acquisitions.

• Message: Aggressive push to become a pan-European diagnostics player.

2023 – Second acquisition & first clinical trial readouts

• Jun 2023: Acquired Coris Bioconcept for £7.4 m upfront + up to £3 m earn-out.

• Clinical: AVA6000 (pre|CISION® doxorubicin) Phase I begins dose escalation; timelines extended into 2024.

• Financing: Further drawdowns on Yorkville facility; equity issuance to support ongoing trials.

• Message: Split identity — diagnostics on one side, oncology on the other.

2024 – Leadership overhaul & diagnostics retreat

• Apr 2024: CEO Alastair Smith steps down; Dr Christina Coughlin appointed CEO May 1.

• Jun 2024: Chairman Eliot Forster resigns; Shaun Chilton becomes Chairman.

• Jun 2024: CFO Tony Gardiner resigns; later replaced by Brian Hahn (May 2025).

• Apr–Sep 2024: Diagnostics division classified as “held for sale.”

• Clinical: AVA6000 dose escalation continues; safety data delayed; new cohorts added.

• Financing: Drew down more of convertible facility; raised small equity top-ups.

• Message: Strategic pivot to Therapeutics.

2025 – Selling diagnostics, funding oncology

• Mar 2025: Sold Launch Diagnostics to Duomed (gross £12.9 m, net £10.6 m) — loss vs £24 m paid.

• Jul 2025: Agreed sale of Coris Bioconcept for £2.15 m upfront + up to £0.615 m earn-out — loss vs £7.4 m paid.

• Clinical: AVA6000 Phase I/II ongoing; still awaiting major efficacy data.

• Refinancing: Continued to convert tranches of Yorkville convertible notes into equity; extended cas

"It'll only take a few weeks to develop an affimer to detect it, we'll sell all we can make........"

well it made me smile, ok I broke out in a cold sweat first, then some deep breaths, then I smiled. What at first doesn't kill you...will make you poorer.

T-shirt? Shirley you mean shumper!

Many backed them at 54p, issue is many people backed them at a higher value on information they gave/chose not to give.

LTH so this is in a drawer, but I can sympathise with anyone who bought above a pound. Basically AL is about as reliable source of information as picking a number using a dart board.

@pl given the audience I would have thought purple pills would generate the most ad revenue. It used to be mining equipment and bibles but those days are long gone.

Oh no it’s not

200 ex China

I don't feel well, I need to sit down. Just popped a rec on an Icecool post. Feels weird.

Oh happy days, great RNS, AND his Lordship returns with his usual comedy gold.

I’ve got the potatoes on the boil ready to make some mash to go with a good sausage thwacking.

I hope he’s been working on some good material. The old stuff,to be fair was awesome, just genius use of excel with fill colors and logarithmic scales, with a liberal use of bratwurst. I think we could be on the cusp of something spectacular, could we hope to see power point with clip art. Fingers crossed.

Big fan Mr O, welcome back.

Apes would imply intelligence.

More like sea-gulls, flapping around, getting excited over rubbish, making a lot of noise and s***ing on everyone else.

Bump. Interesting.

Here's a thought, maybe some are shorting Avacta and that could affect the share price, hence rules changing about shorinting being posted on the Avacta board.

on political posts, one thing to vote with the crap that was being spouted by people in positions which traditionally have a level of trust. It's another thing to think Brexit was a good thing thing looking around today, rather than a "get over it". Maybe an apology instead;-)