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You stated:
"CLNs need buying volume and news to sustain buying pressure to counter the constant downward pressure on the share price."
Let's assume 45p for the share price, given it's likely the rns will be monday/tuesday next week, and that the price is taken as a 10% discount of the vwap of preceding days. The upcoming payment will look something like the following:
| Coupon Payment (£M) | Amortization Payment (£M) | Cumulative Repayment (£M) | Total Shares (M) | Dilution (%) | Cumulative Shares (M) | Cumulative Dilution (%) | Balance (£M) | Share price |
| 0.62 | 1.9 | 2.52 | 5.59 | 1.57 | 5.59 | 1.57 | 36.1 | 0.45 |
That's a dilution of 1.57% this quarter and 5.59m shares over roughly 65 trading days until the next quarterly payment. That is an average of 84,600 share per day that needs to be absorbed. Since we dropped to 50p we have on average traded around 4m shares per day, so that represents an additional 2% shares per day that need to be absorbed. It's the kind of transaction that sheppy eats for breakfast.
It's 3 months then until the next quarter, say around July 22nd, at which point the 2w results are likely to be coming into view, so that 84000 shares per day just becomes insignificant.
On top of this we have just had GSA capital open a short position, so there's 1.75m shares of buying pressure that need to be closed right there ;)
The trouble though Gje is that you calculate the issued shares against the total number of shares in existence.
What moves the share price on a week by week basis is the number of shares issued and then sold by Heights relative to the volume of shares bought and sold over the same period of time. This is obviously a much, much smaller number of shares and the impact of these shares being released onto the market will be significantly larger than your rather benign interpretation.
Indeed it's this disproportionate and ever increasing downward pressure (more shares at a cheaper price with every conversion) that can so very destructive in terms of the longer term share price.
The term 'death spiral' is used for a reason.
Thorno =🤡 just ignore
i ran the numbers to get a better understanding of the impact, no prompting from anyone. as we saw, they're really not that bad given all the reasons i mentioned; in particular:
- the worst payments have been
- the ever reducing principal and interest payments
- the fact that it is still spread over 3.5 years
- the heavy weighting to the final payment in 3.5 years
there's going to be no sudden and catastrophic dilution event.
when you couple that with the fact that there is now 44m in the bank and so there will be no other source of dilution for the foreseeable - we're good.
you can sit on the side-lines and await events, that's everyone's prerogative, however i'm sure you'll openly admit that you don't have the foggiest what events are inbound and when ;) wyndrum keeps trying to tell us he has a crystal ball, but admit it, you have no idea, any of you, which makes all of what you say completely hypothetical. for example, you might wake up one day to some event and the price is up 500%, or we might go 4 quarters with no news with the share price on its ****. hint, it'll be somewhere between the two.
what i do know however, was that the p1a results were brilliant, and reading between the lines and applying some basic logic about the chemistry involved here, the 2w results are likely to be an improvement on these, so we may not have to wait as long as you think for one of those events.
so, hc shares will undoubtedly apply downward pressure, but not that much. on the other hand, stonking 2w results, which are not that far away, could apply far more upwards pressure. it's for everyone to work out when the best time to be in our out is, however, so long as we have this singular focus from your crew, then it's important to keep raising awareness of the upside to this proposition, for balance.
" sit on the sidelines to await events,"
Good idea Thorn, cheerio.
But also including the Share Price GJE.
Your recent Contract Loan Notes calculations were designed to reassure, with some prompting you ran the numbers assuming a share price of just 30p.
The problem however is that each round Height's repayment effectively sets a new floor for the share price.
Today we might close at 47.5p? Loose another 2.5p by next week and then the conversion of shares at a 10% discount to the prevailing share price will be at 40p.
Already half way to your 'worst case scenario' figures which you tabulated earlier this week!
3 months time: 30p? etc etc.
CLNs need buying volume and news to sustain buying pressure to counter the constant downward pressure on the share price.
If it's falling and everyone knows it's likely to fall further then why not sit on the sidelines to await events?
"All we have is what has actually happened before as a reference."
Including the p1a results, which are as good as I could have hoped for given the patient cohorts. All success criteria of the p1a phase ticked off, with a Brucey bonus of observed efficacy in a group of patients that were never anticipated respond positively to the treatment.
I look back at that very recent event, satisfied. Now I look forward to the Q2W, which it's hard to see how these won't be even better given the treated cohorts are going to be more targeted (the last we heard) and the dosing more frequent.
Bfd, its not that I think AVCt will be taken private but simply highlight that it could happen to refute the "Its all about the science and the science works, so we will have to be patient but it will all be ok, so just keep using these low prices to top up" brigade.
If the trial is delayed or has any sort of set back which costs time and the there is more money needed, then given the costs of listing (which are pretty high I believe), then an option would be to de-list and go private ala SuperDry at the moment.
As I say I don't think this is the most likely outcome but it is not beyond the realms. That was/is my point.
Its not about the science its all about the money.
I have no idea of the calibre of the staff of AVCT, other to say this BB was full of the same type of things when JV's were being discussed and new staff were being recruited for the LFT.
And that whether people like it or not this is a red flag for me. I hope this will be different but it is following the same path as the LFT inasmuch, best in the world, everything going great, deals being inked etc etc. but delay after delay kept occurring. and money being raised
Now we have a paradigm shift in this tech, everything going great, small deals being turned down etc etc, but with delay after delay and money being raised.
My default position is we don't actually know anything about what's going on either in the trial or the actual company. All we have is what has actually happened before as a reference. Does not mean history will repeat itself, but common sense should at least surface to be aware that this is a very high risk company that has a very poor track record to date about commercialising their tech.
So when I read chomp chomp, buy now, top here there and everywhere, I think it prudent to remind people of what we actually know as opposed to what we guess/hope is going on.
Of course I don’t have a proper job Shepee, I’m really paragliding through the Pyrenees atm, just went over a boring bit so I thought I’d check in
Wyndrum, personally i like your posts although i rarely fully agree with them. Atleast you usually provide a considered if long winded view of what you perceive to be the reality.
I am a little surprised by your contention that AVCT could be taken private and shareholders lose everything. This simply isn't, and never has been the case. If AVCT were to go private, which i doubt, the most shareholders would lose would be some liquidity.
I must also take issue about your depiction of the BOD. Simon and Christina seem to me to be people of the highest integrity who didn't need to come to Avacta. AS i do not trust as i have posted before, but i think you are looking through a historic lens that is simply no longer relevant.
My biggest concern at the moment, as i have been posting for a few months now, is somebody is trying to do the same here as was done to SAR. SAR have got rid of any form of CLN, AVCT need to do the same
Ben thought you had a proper job to go to . Obviously not
Again you struggle with what people say making ridiculous inferences from their words. In the next year would mean any day in the next year. It almost seems like you’ve become confused by your own backhandedness to the point that you can’t actually understand what others are saying without overlapping your own agenda. Maybe go to the drs I believe this is an early sign of dementia.
If Avacta sold their Diagnostics business ? Would they achieve £30M they paid , say they could ?
They don’t attempt to settle the Convertible in part but use the proceeds to settle the next Qtrs payment, the share price should firm , Avacta when the timing is right conduct a placing to make up the gap between the loan note and proceeds of the disposal ? £15M to £10M? Square the outstanding convertible?
Appreciate the above depends on the disposal price
Shorters a lower than low. How the hell they sleep at night
The practice should be banned !
Yes and might make Heights think twice about pre-selling...
Wouldn't it be great if AVCT caught these shorters out and paid this next Heights conversion in cash? Unlikely I know but would do sentiment and the SP the world of good and only eat up a fraction of the cash on hand.
Ben, so you are telling me you expect a big deal by the end of 2025.....(20 Months!) .I said (based on what AS said), there was no big deal coming short term, I ie the next few weeks/ months. And you accused me of lying while agreeing with me...
Well done.... facing both ways at the same time, you should be in the AVCT coms dept.
Wyn (typo)
Wny your last post is spot on as many of yours are. Your intellect is clearly higher than the rampers who only know FUD whatever that means
Timster you really are like a lamb to the slaughter. Nobody can suggest an alternative point of view to your blinded by desperation view of this company. You might be many things but open minded is not one of them
I am waiting for the efficacy part of the trial, whatever it is called now, to re-produce the stellar results that have been indicated in the safety part of the trial.
My "beef", is with many posters here who talk in certainties rather than possibilities. The ones that won't or refuse to recognise the still high risk and ever extending timeline being subscribed to this trial without caring about the money.
Their inability to understand that AVCT could get taken private and they lose everything and yet still the science could prevail. That actually the SP does matter.
The talk of "golden tickets" as though this can't fail, when in fact the history of the company (not other examples, this company), is a failure to commercialise any tech and to miss every timeline ever set for anything. To recognise that they have a BoD that are very ambiguous with their statements and partial in their revelations to share holders while continuing to cause capital depreciation and dilution of their holdings going over years.
As long as no one has bet more than they comfortably can afford to lose then if the worse (from a shareholders pov), came to pass they would be financially ok.
Reading posts here there is little balance, and those that do try to balance the risks here are simply personally attacked and with all the intellectual vigour at their disposal just shout FUD, as though meaningless acronym is some sort of answer.
I expect a deal sometime this year. But. As I don’t have an agenda I don’t make stuff up to back up my point. Patience. Anyway I’ve got a proper job I need to go to, I suggest you try it sometime as your tedious banging on here must bore even you. Good day to you
If it doesn’t land in the next year it still doesn’t make you right. You said that AS said something and inferred something that they just didn’t. What then happens after that is a completely different story. You’re still a lier.
Given the size of the short position, they're possibly just looking to close when the hc shares are issued ie. it's a liquidity event and they're taking advantage of it.
And so the circle of fud continues
https://wondermark.com/c/1062/