Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Past history suggest AS has told IIs one thing and PIs something else
E.g.
1. Boohoo invested at 18p. Quite alot of money. Later the lfd investment was announced and partnership in that order.
2. AS stated in a presentation to PIs no need for fund raise when shares were £1.90. About a week later posters here were actually telling us a raise was happening including the exact price but no RNS until two days later at £1.20. AS then stated he had been flying to the States for over a year looking for investors. PIs were excluded from the raise.
I think he needs more cash to make the business a success. I agree he needs to raise it and IIs is the most economical way of doing it. I think he will steer this ship to the best of his ability and the tech will win out. I think he could make me richer.
The roadshows coincide with the appointment of new PR - someone sold him the idea. His motivation is about the next fundraise. I agree the company will need to do it and it will be at a discount. He needs IIs. He doesn't need PIs
Thats why he treats the two groups so differently. We won't provide enough new cash for him to give a ****
You’re right, rip. He can’t flog the LFT, currently. The ‘covid 19 commercial opportunity’ line shouldn’t be muttered.
Yep, Affimer proof of concept. I also believe the achievement in becoming a diagnostic business is worth a great deal of credit. Apatamer group are valued at £90m. This should show how valuable the Affimer diag business actually is. Ironic the AS has ramped it in reverse.
Looking forward to updates of over the coming weeks. Regardless of the roadshow, we’re imminently due AVA news.
My unpopular opinion Bein, is the LFT, for us and all other U.K. developed diagnostic companies, is worth pretty much nothing. Or so close to nothing that it really isn’t worth peddling. I think diagnostics will quietly develop via BAMS, Elisa and the like but I think the pandemic has done more damage to the LFT rep than good, though they may become a triage method for initial diagnostics. But in terms of near term value of the diagnostics division I think it’s worth no more than the proof of concept of Affimers and the operations they have developed to create the diagnostics.
I believe the roadshow will be almost entirely based on AVA6000 initial data and I don’t think we PIs will get that info before the roadshow. It’s got all the hallmarks of the same back door event of the last raise.
I have also given up speculating about these events - there are multiple permutations possible of course - the actual one (if indeed any) will only be revealed via RNS - if price sensitive. Like many, I've been here too many times before to get whipped into a state of excitement - only to be grounded with a harsh and unexpected whack. AS is totally out of ramping credibility - he needs to deliver facts and figures in support of AVA6000 and/or LFT (preferably AVA) - not hype. If he does try another rampathon with already known data he'll likely get badly burned - even by the faithful LTH's. GLA
Ollyj24...IIs are not PIs..they will want something more than what is out there...they will be wanting to see some bottom line news and trial data...otherwise they would have invested already...they might have had permission to impart some news/info from our partners...
Any significant news cannot be withheld.
Question has to be why a 3 day road show now???
I think he needs new presentation material. He can’t ‘sell’ the LFT anymore based on info in the public domain - that’s been a bit of a mess. AVA potential is known to all. They could have added (maybe have) at these levels without the roadshow.
New news, new hooks required.
I think we have had too many moments of great speculation that have led to disappointment.
I personally expect that there will be no news next week and Alistair is going to present what we already know (which is a great investment opportunity as it is) in the hope that a well done presentation will bring enough new blood into the company to stop the share price being controlled by shorters.
It may also be that they have they do have news but are keeping it under wraps with some pretext (like they are awaiting some data or a report to be finished) Then they can present the case say news is imminent present the news in a few days and they won’t be done for insider trading. Just a theory which I would be happy to be wrong on if we do get news.
:) I’ve got a lot less patience these days.
Lol Beinthelead
You managed to say to same thing in a quarter of the space!
My bad!!!
Interested to hear some very balanced views.
These presentations should really have attracted better discussion on here. They are intruiging. Peolpe seem more interested in identifying NDN's lastest incarnation
Let's not forget that these presentations are costing money to promote and present. They will need to be delivered with utmost integrity and without the usual waffle us "normal" shareholders are given. The company shouldn't be doing them without a very good reason. Is it for:
1. Buttering up the insti's for a fundraise
2. Needing the insti's to help fight off a cheap takeover bid
Fundraise option.
Reasons this could be:
LFT sales were poor and we never recovered our costs on the product and cash burn has been higher as a result (certainly possible)
Initial AVA6000 data is extrememly promising and Avacta desperately want to keep the project "in-house" but will require more cash (certainly possible)
There can be many more reasons but none that I can think of as compelling as above.
As ever, there can be good and bad reasons behind the need for a fundraise. I have been thinking for a little while and especially more since Avacta pulled it's LFT from sale, that any future fundraise will only be bought into by the market for exceptionally good reasons. AS has been fronting up fundraises for 12 years and failed to deliver any meaningful revenue. I really don't think the market can stomach another AS fronted fundraise for anything other than immensly promising, "totally validated" data on it's theraputics programme.
Fighting a cheap bid option
The current SP situation has led to many faithful shareholders being horribly underwater here. A cheap bid for this company might well succeed on release of great data re AVA6000. Having more clued up insti's on board would certainly help in fighting off a cheap bid.
The issue though is. How do they get them on board in significant numbers and at a price acceptable to them?
If they give them great inside info and they trade on it, they are all breaking the law. If they give them great inside info and they don't trade on it until the info is released to the market, they won't get a great price.
The issue for me is that neither of the options for the presentations make much sense. I would be very glad to hear others objective opinions on what they think is happening here. I know what you all "want" to think is happening.
If history has taught us anything about Avacta, it is that when we get excited that something great is about to be delivered, we often get a quick kick to the crotch. The last thing we want now is another downside surprise.
Does anyone have any other compelling positive reasons for these presentations that actually make sense?
Due to the fact that AS will be bombarded with all sorts of searching and awkward questions that, unlike during general shareholder presentations, he can't hide from, I just don't see him putting himself through that without a compelling reason. Interested to hear ba
Good post.
Two options;
1. He’s out with his begging bowl because cash is running out and presents the same ramps.
2. He releases price sensitive info re AVA positivity. The II’s are lined up ready with the cheque books. A lot of nervous PI’s will sell up north of £2, which is where the II’s will bite their hands off.
Option 1 is far less likely. He’s lost almost all faith in the market to get away with ramping the potential without delivering. I’m convinced CAG have advised him of this.
Therefore, news and a new positive ‘hook’ could be on the cards.
Here’s to hoping - nobody knows either way. Those that talking in facts do not know any more than us.
Al cannot say anything price sensitive at these roadshows which haven’t previously been announced to the market so I would anticipate a 7.00am RNS Monday or Tuesday through a trading update. It is highly unlikely he would go to all this PR trouble if he was simply repeating info that is already publicly available and if he didn’t have something positive to say. I would anticipate a AVA6K update and the clues are already out there to indicate that we are nearing a pivotal period in Avacta’s short history. Reasons to be both optimistic and nervous.
The process seems unfair. Surely he has an obligation to make all investors PI or II aware of the date at the SAME time in the form of an RNS. By all means, he can do a roadshow to explain what this means monetarily in the future... though I think Miles has done that already with his latest tweet. Irrespective of Monday RNS or not, I would expect the share to rocket. Exciting times ahead. Hold on tight.
AS also has to be careful he doesn't set himself up as a takeover target too early.
I understand the dilemma, so it seems a post roadshow rns more likely then! I am not sure how they can keep all attendees sitting on their hands for 3 days though!
Anyway we will get to know sooner or later!
MCB - a passing thought….
1. It’s highly likely that AS has very good news to impart officially concerning AVA6000, for example.
2. If so, then an official announcement/update when made will very likely lead to a significant uplift in SP
3. AS is keen to get many more II’s involved - thus the meetings coming up.
4. BUT - timing wise - if he announces before the meetings start, then the II’s will be presented with a much higher SP entry level if they want to invest. Less attractive to them.
5. If he announces after the meetings have begun or when they’re all concluded, the II’s will have more temptation to invest.
6. There presumably cannot be a wholly binding obligation (yet) to make the announcement by RNS before these meetings begin - otherwise the RNS would have been published already?
Sounds great as always from Miles! AS surely must update the market this week with more details on AV6000 results to date (and for that matter LFT revamp), he cannot just repeat what's on the website ("chemotoxin dramatically reduced"), he must give and II's will demand chapter and verse! II's will also want to know timescale to relaunch LFT's!
The only question in my mind is when will AS update the market, before or after (Bella suggested this was possible) the roadshows, and in what level of detail (at least the roadshow slides!?).
https://twitter.com/MylesMcNulty/status/1487064735908569089?t=hIbJJ1v16rqLmav6Rqcn_g&s=09
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