Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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So many opinions that I thought I'd join in! A 3 day roadshow without any new data or update would be completely ridiculous imo. Why are so many people writing off the LFT business? I'm still expecting it to fund us over the coming years. If it wasn't for the CTDA process and blatant cronyism and possible corruption we would have already made many millions.
"We believe COVID-19 testing remains a long-term commercial opportunity. We will therefore use the robustness of the Affimer® platform, and what we have learned about the SARS-CoV-2 virus, to generate the next generation antigen test that will be as resilient as possible to any future mutations."
I'm also expecting an update on the above statement as it is a vital component for us moving forward. Many opinions recently seem to suggest the statement is an untruth. I don't believe that to be the case but if so then the CEO's position becomes untenable which I would be truly devastated about. So much to be positive about over the coming weeks. GLA
Regrettably MrR, given AVCT's track record in this regard, I suspect you are likely correct. Personally, I'll hope for the best - but expect more of the same old, same old (much less disappointing that way). GLA
That bland option is the most likely. I’m not seeing any particular reason for news to coincide with a roadshow. I’m sure they’ll give a nod and a wink as they’ll have some data, but it’s still very early in the trial so I can’t imagine any huge fanfare at the moment. I just hope, as we all do, that the trial is going well and then any future raise will come from a huge position of strength. WaffAl doesn’t mind giving the same presentations with no new content, time for another investormeet yet…
Drobbo, the other option is a lot more bland. There is no news Monday. The roadshow is the same sound bites as ever simply to make IIs aware of Avacta and it’s pipeline, and to make them aware of a future fund raise post AVA6000 data but not yet. As I’ve said we’ve got zero or slightly above zero LFT sales. We do have several positives in the LG, Daewoong and Point deals. The big one though is positive AVA6000 data and that’s the sales pitch. So if no news Monday I’d say it’ll just be the usual fluff, and it simply happens that this roadshow has landed now, nothing more to it. As always with Avacta PIs should expect total silence
I agree with Wyndrum that RD's post is a good reminder to tread carefully with what AS communicates as unfortunately his very pleased messages are not very reliable. Not sure about the lfd smokescreen though as quite specific details of what the issue is has been provided. Irrespective of what is said here though and any very pleased comments AS may make ultimately it will take detailed information with positive news on AVA6000 to achieve significant SP gains. We may even get a bonus with the rebirth of Affidx although like most here believe this is becoming secondary. We will know more next week and hopefully PI's will benefit through the process which as ever is understandably biased towards big money II's as without funds all grinds to a halt. You have to accept as a PI that you are on a rollercoaster ride where the ride is not yet built so you can't see the climbs and scary drops ahead in the distance. II's get to see the build plans and can act accordingly whereas PI's can get on and off at any time without knowing what's ahead or like me stay put and enjoy the ride till the end.
MrRipley : On balance I think you could be right..... after all AS is defo no salesman, so he cant be selling thin air. If that's the case there should be an RNS at 7am on Monday, as it would be illegal to divest info to II and not PIs anything price sensitive.
In that case maybe its a bit of both. Hit the investors & market with some great data but also stress that AVA need additional funding. That could make sense as if data is good the potential as we all know here is MASSIVE.
NDN back under KneelT username then. New account, loads of posts. Subtle digs at avacta and loves SNG.
Know his game.
Haha knee is quite obviously a wind up merchant. Give it up NDN. Also “science explanations”. Wowza.
Timster…. You ok hun?
Drobbo, so you think AS is going cap in hand do you? “Hi IIs….. so the LFT hasn’t sold much even though I said it definitely would, I’ve got no data on AVA, but hey, it’ll make us billions, pinky promise, defo. It defo will because I really want it to. Want in?” If your scenario is true then no II is going to want in on a promise based on AS track record. They will want data from the AVA6000 trials. There won’t be IIs piling in on a wing and a prayer, a raise won’t happen pre data. It makes absolutely zero sense financially. You have to have something to actually sell them.
Just read the Myles tweet. Interesting stuff and he did say that it is risky. I think that is true of all shares. Will he go to the roadshows.
He doesn't know what potency is and some of his science explanations don't make sense but I think he has gone to a lot of effort to explain share stuff. Does anyone know what shares he recommends and how they are doing.
I'm with your drobbo...
I hope I'm wrong and I genuinely hope there is massive good news regarding the efficacy of AVA6000.
I do believe there will be at some point.
However I do think these roadshows are to attract IIs into the business to keep it funded.
Reason:
At many stages (if memory serves me - which it may now) Avacta have said the LFT sales will help reduce the cash burn and fund the therapeutics side of the business. A month ago we have no LFT and no sales. Now AVACTA are doing a roadshow to IIs. I don't think it needs a genius to work it out.
Unless we get a 7am RNS Monday I think the above will be the likely reason for the roadshows as there is no way AS can say anything price sensitive to IIs and not the whole market.
GLA
All he ever does is copy & paste everything from the Avacta website to make up long winded "Research" reports when all investors have to do is simply look at the Avacta website, just like he does.
Myles hasn't got a single thing right so far, just like Ophidian...apart from losing huge amounts of money for their followers of course.
I'm certainly on the same page as RD, but i think there must be news on the current trial.
AVCT have done roadshows before so I think those who need to know about AVCT already do, to a major extent.
Therefore to raise more money I think they have to demonstrate that Precision is a goer based on the results thus far.
If there is good news that is strong enough to be reportable then that must boost the SP thus making a raise easier with less dilution.
There is lot riding on this because if it does not go well, then it makes it all abut harder. I don't think he can get away with him just saying he is confident, it must be backed up with some data of some sort.
(PS: I think the excuse of omicron leading to the the pausing of the the LFT was a smoke screen.
All other tests seem to be the same boat but they did not pull their products, so there was no need for AVCT to do so either. (They had just got EU approval for goodness sake.) Something else was wrong imo.
I will be very surprised if we ever see a resumption of the Covid LFT.
We all know AS heart is in Cancer drugs.
Hold a road show for institutional investors if AVA6000 results were looking brilliant and you were expecting to attract a buy out? A buy out that could help you fast track all other cancer drugs and complete your dreams. Would you want institutional investors to pump up the price to make the most or your shares before the inevitable buy out?
For those questioning the timing or value of presenting to II's now, I think there are a number of simple reasons:
- Avacta could do with more II investment to both boost the SP and make it less volatile.
- II's will not necessarily know everything that Avacta has to offer - some may have taken little or no interest so far.
- The failure (to date) of commercialising the LFT makes it easier to highlight that Avacta is not a 'covid stock', and focus on the theraputics.
- Companies do sales pitches all the time with no 'new' information.
- If Avacta repeat the same messages given to us re AVA6000 trials, it means so much more now 6 months along.
- The SP is an absolute steal IF Pre-cision works, and still great long term value via commercialising affimers (which we know work).
Mmm… been thinking about this. I think and support that PI’s struggle to value at present with NO data. However, if data is good, AS will present the info ala Myles then they will.
It’s not entirely a PI issue here, it’s Avacta’s communication where fault should be laid.
Good post Runner.
Plan A was to raise funds via the LFTs. These still sell at high prices in the US but Avacta has not obtained approval there. In the future patients planning to use Pavlovid to treat a covid infection will need to know whether they have covid and so will need a stock of reliable LFTs well into the future. Pavlovid is priced at over $500 per treatment course. The US will get the lion’s share of Pavlovid when production first ramps so this is the key territory for LFTs this year.
Plan B was to raise funds via a PreCision licence when the technology had proved itself. That option may be available now depending on results.
If Avacta can’t manage either of these and the PreCision results are good they may be planning yet another fund raise. But if the PreCision news is good they should release those results first and get the share price up before dumping the fund raise on investors. We will find out in February if Avacta are getting their act together or continue to screw things up. The outfit arranging the three days of meetings look incompetent. They can’t even state the dates of the meetings the same way in two places on the same page.
Runner-Runner, good post.
Agree its a very interesting situation with how to get instos on board without making them buy in a volatile market if Avacta were to release ava6k news. On the flip side, how do they discuss the progress to date given right now we should we well into cohort 2, and even starting cohort 3 soon if we are to finish the dose escalation by Q2 as per the FDA IND approval RNS on 29th Nov, without giving away inside info which hasnt been disclosed to the market?
Given its impossible to finish the dose escalation on time if they havent already gone through 2-3 already, I am of the view that theres been no safety issues, particularly with the selection of ava3996. So the data is good, but just how good is it? It creates an urgent need for a sticky share register as right now theres too many flaky PIs. If someone came in with a bid of £1.5b which is £6, I fear many PIs would accept as they dont fully appreciate the market that good data unlocks. Its many many multiples of that and maybe why Alastair previously said:
"Avacta is in a position to help shape the future of medicine through powerful new anti-cancer treatments and diagnostics. With appropriate scale-up capital, Avacta will become a multi-billion-dollar life sciences company competing globally with the likes of Roche-Genentech, Thermo-Fisher and Abbott."
They are worth 200-300 billion. Now read that again and ask yourself if Avacta can disrupt the whole industry, what price would you accept?
The only way I see it is if no RNS, then those instos would have to be brought on the inside if sensitive info was to be given.
I believe the best situation for all involved would be to release data, then alongside that do a private premium fundraise at say 200p with those institutions who appreciate the value of the platform. Just look at other companies who have done a premium fundraise. I am in All Active Asset which suspended at 53p ish and has done a premium raise at 80p etc with someone who will stick around for the journey.
Suggesting the need raise has to be 50% above the last is pushing it! Given LFT hasn’t worked out as expected/planned anything above 120p is fair enough. That said I hope positive AVA6000 data will push comfortably above and even with a slight discount we will raise above.
I agree with a lot that has been said this am on this subject. IF Avacta need to raise money, it has to be at an sp well above £1.20 of last raise, my guess is a min of £1.80. However it would have to be at a discount to the sp at the time, so AS needs to get the sp well above £2 to play games! SO a combination of II's buying in and shorts closing (as well as a mega rns) could squeeze the sp to such heights in short shrift!
Runner/Rip/olly - good discussion. Balanced. Ahhhh - how refreshing.
Cellar boy summarising well again.
https://twitter.com/boy_cellar/status/1487401041104617476?s=20&t=cNpHQWGBS3Q4I1y4FJo3Cg
Ollyj24 - your view makes a lot of sense and could well turn out to be a good call.
"I can’t see them raising below Conifers 1.20 entry as it would be a massive kick in the dick. More likely we get initial data, the SP is shoved north towards £2 and a fundraise is announced."
MrRipley
The above quote from you makes the most sense in relation to these presentations and expected imminent AVA600 data release.
This way would solve the problem of the insti's being priced out if they have already agreed on a fundraise price.
This ties in with a compelling reason to raise whilst allowing an orderly entry for any inst's that want in.
Thanks
The question is when will we get initial data. I believe within the next 4 weeks. The next question is do they then raise or license out AVA6000. Short term a license deal makes sense as there’s no reason to raise funds plus AS stated they still value the input of Conifer fund. I can’t see them raising below Conifers 1.20 entry as it would be a massive kick in the dick. More likely we get initial data, the SP is shoved north towards £2 and a fundraise is announced. The third option is they’re heading to NASDAQ and the road show is a preamble for this. My thinking here is the IND filing for AVA in the US. It would make sense to get market exposure over there. I’m guessing we’re not exactly big news across the pond.
Anyway we’re all guessing here. I’m sure it’ll all come out in the wash.