I think that this "sell off" by Kerogen is quite a deliberate strategy by the whole BOD (with a Kerogen Director) inorder to provide more liquidity in the market and less dependency on Kerogen as the largest shareholder, and ultimately to the benefit of the HUR LTH's and the sp, all as advised and carried out by Morgan Stanley! Obviously Kerogen get a nice little bonus with a 300% profit on their 5% sold also, but that was NOT the reason, they sold for the long term benefit of the Company!? IMHO
Haggis, I don't agree, even if GWA is zero (which I do not believe for one minute) then the ultimate value of GLA alone is 1.75 billion barrels at say $7/bbl, once proven up. For sure the short term sp would suffer on any negative news, that is the expected emotional response, and always gets hyped down ( or up as the case maybe). Rarely does the sp reflect true value only perceived value by a relatively small number of PI's! IMHO.
On a true wild cat/discovery well, which Halifax was, the OGA will demand a very high mud weight over pressure to that predicted. This is what contributed mainly to the Halifax well bore "skin" problems. I expect that HUR will have convinced the OGA that Warwick Deep downhole pressures will be similar to Halifax and thus would approve a lower mud density, however maybe by not that much because, as you say, you don't know what you will hit, maybe a high pressure gas pocket.
Wulbert, Thats right just chill and wait for Warwick news and CMD. If you are a believer (as I am ) then the news will be good. Yes there appears to have been a few hiccups with WD, as aduk says these things happen, nothing to become distraught about otherwise we would have heard! The stop losses being activated no doubt contributed to the early 6% loss, all back on track now, although, like you, would love to see it higher. Only news will budge it from about here. I think it is better to NOT have an ongoing progress report, only rns real achievements/conclusions, as they are required to do anyway. Although it does test one's nerve a bit, but not that much for a LTH/believer! Markets do not go up in straight lines!
aduk, I agree with what you say, however my expectation is that the horizontal section/TD is about 2/3rds of the depth of the assumed oil depth (as we don't know where the OWC is!). In other words it is expected to have plenty of oil above and below.
I take it that we can assume the DST is in progress? How long will this take?....... from the 2014 DST charts it appears to be about a week with multiple flows and shut in's..... Is that the perceived opinion on here? So that would mean an rns either late next week or most likely monday 1st July......thoughts? AIM rules say they O&G companies must report on well completion......is that immediately after DST or a further few days to withdraw DST gear and complete the well for production?
Yes AIM rules for O&G companies is that they have to announce the basic drill results as soon as well completed! Maybe not all the minutae of the DST, but I would expect that as well. They are not allowed to delay and wait for the CMD unless they coincidentally happen to be the same date!
Bs, I generally agree with you, but think that the reason the sp is down is because hnr is under the radar at the moment and therefore no sustained demand! It requires some good substantial news and another Markets day......all coming soon I feel sure!
The main reason IMHO they are not moving up to the main market just yet is that such a move requires good steady audited income for 6-12 mths! That is after the publication of next years accounts! So 3Q20 to me seems earliest feasible. Also other factors like BOD too busy, etc. Don’t get me wrong, I would love to see HUR move out of AIM asap! However such a move may not be the panacea of all our volatility concerns. We maybe taken out before then anyway,
Much along the lines you suggest! For me it would be Zoetic launch, website launched, product available, first sales, etc. Timing must be before AGM due 21st August I would have thought, ,so I would guess in July then!
My guess is that they will set out a date/timescale to go to the main market at the Capital Markets Day in July, may even be that day! Certainly in 4Q most likely 3Q. They will want some proven production/income to show the market so at least one tanker load sold! Somebody should ask at AGM today and let’s see what the answer is!?