The BoD, the II’s and the pi’s would never agree to a buyout anywhere near current mcap, so just wont happen! A hostile bid would require a majority of shareholders to agree, ii’s hold more than 50% and would be wanting way more than current mcap, more like £5++! A few desperate pi’s might agree to £2+, but not enough to carry the day! So any successful bid would have to be mega! Imho
I agree the therapeutics side is totally undervalued. The sp only really reflects the lack of news on the diagnostics.....driven by Aim traders after a quick buck........thats AIM for you though! If this had US exposure then the sp would £5+ on clinical trials alone!
RE: Dose Escalation & Short Squeeze?03 Sep 2021 12:52
Marik/roundhowe, Surely AS cannot keep totally silent on the trial progress until December. I would have thought an interim statement to the effect of "The trial is progressing satisfactorily with no major concerns" would be put at the half way stage?.......your thoughts? Maybe scientists/medics never will make pre-emoptive general statements until the facts/data have been fully analysed!?
Mr A, I agree in many respects with what you say, I think that the only explanation is that it is still a bit early (!) as there is an NDA with Medusa and probably DHSC (I know that old rabbit again!)! When all becomes clear on both counts, hopefully within a month, then I would expect marketing, etc, to ramp up to professional standards!
The current sp does not currently have any real relationship to the value of the IP of the company, it is purely driven by sentiment/emotion and frustration of no sales data and not logic or NPV valuation (as in the Trinity analysis). True value will out eventually!
"These people will, sadly, be terminally ill" Also they will have exhausted all other treatment options awhile ago before they can enter the trials, so this is their best/last chance for a bit/a lot longer! Best of luck to them and of course for us investors.
AS did say that feedback/results from the Ph1a trials will be available by the end of year! However I wouldn't rule out an interim statement after a few doses of escalation, in the autumn, even iif just to say" Trial progressing well patients responding as expected".
"However, apart from their obligation to service the NHS, the govt. wants to wash its hands of LFTs and make people pay privately." HMG need to protect their total workforce, not just the NHS, that is the Armed Forces, Civil servants and council employees, Border control, so quite a few really (say 3-4million overall). If they were tested twice a week that is then ca 28m/mth.........that is what a sovereign test would be for! Everyone else can be catered for from the private sector.
As the Ph 1a trial is in 3-4 stages of dose escalation, I think there is a real possibility of a rns/comment at the conclusion of each stage. Not in detail, just to say stage1 completed satisfactorily and now moving on to stage 2, etc.! So asome potential feedback every 4-5 weeks or so.
RE: MP response at last - & not the standard one05 Aug 2021 20:09
PL75, I would suggest ask why top quality LFD's (with s&s of say min 98%) cannot be used as the equivalent of a PCR test, thus providing a rapid non invasive quality test at low cost. If necessary a positive result can then be backed up by a PCR test.This would be a massive boost to travel and other business.
AS would not recommend a bid of less than £10, so it would have to be a hostile bid that shareholders vote for at an EGM. Many a PI might vote for £2-5 right now, but I very much doubt if over 50% of shareholders including II's would!
RE: New safety standards for LFTs (excluding those already approved!!!!!!)01 Aug 2021 21:25
Oily, I agree as long as MHRA do not extend The EUA for home use for Innova beyond the end of August! It would take one big player out of the race! However don’t bet on it, because although Sunak will want to end free tests soon, he will be under pressure to hold off, and HMG when in a corner just extends what they are used to doing! However the landscape is changing albeit slowly, I am still hopeful of HMG orders as it beggars belief that they wouldn’t support UK Diagnostics after all the talks there have been and no doubt still are ongoing, and all that govnmt LFT machinery standing idle!
"If you read the new govt guidelines, the acceptable level of sensitivity is above 60%, so quite a low bar." That is my concern too! There should be either a higher bar or a two tier bar, the second tier being close to PCR accuracy!! The cheap n cheerful tests will go to the uninformed organisations, but hopefully the large organisations will understand that the best is not necessarily the cheapest and the impact on their productivity/workforce absences far outlays getting it wrong!