Member Info for MCB55

Plus or minus 3 mths

Bella,
My view is that there will be a mix. a big Partner for flagship Ava6000 and avacta's contribution financed from licences for some of the drug pipeline!

Avacta do not have the muscle (finance, manpower, skills, manufacturing, etc) to take Ava6000 to market alone, so they have to either partner up or sell. The lead time to market is at least a year, so for them to be in a position to sell product shortly after Ph2 completion means that a partnership deal needs to be done this year!

I think your view of what is an acceptable sp/offer is all to do with when/time! For instance £14.71 tomorrow first thing or £54.71 in a few years time?
Also how old you are now and how much you have invested, are you 25 or 75, are you in right now at £5k, £50k or £500k!?

Apre,
Ok maybe the word "delay" may not be precisely correct (as no date given as you say), just that in all the other rns' re new cohorts the new dose level was announced at the same time as the move to the next cohort. It is now 2 weeks since the 5th cohort rns. That 2 week "delay" is for some reason and imo that may well be that they need MHRA approval to extend Ph1a beyond the original plan and/or approval for a new trial design/protocol.

BMD,
I think it’s possible that the delay in announcing the next dose level is because Avacta are waiting on the MHRA to approve the Ph1a trial extension and/or the trial design in order to accelerate finding the MTD. Is that likely in your opinion and how long would it take?

I get the impression that AS really wants to keep it all in the UK........but may reluctantly turn to the US/Nasdaq for further funding. The purpose of Science day may well be to rev up UK fund managers so as to keep Avacta in the UK.

Could be a bot closing out all those with a stop loss at ca 150!?

An RNS next week is nailed on?.........unless there is a bigger deal unfolding in the background!?
Can you imagine no RNS next week......I can't......but if there wasn't then a whole bunch of "what if's" would emerge.......from super positive to super negative!

"If early Jan wasn't really meant to be specific then we might have to wait up until 15th..."
I cannot believe that big Al would say "early" Jan if he didn't mean it and wanted some wiggle room just in case, surely he has learnt from all the miscues of the past.

My bet is week beginning 3rd Jan, even though it’s a 4 day week!
AS will use the Monday holiday to refine n review the rns.
Any much later is stretching the idea of “early” January

Ipad,
Yes there appears to a few fund managers in the II list, so you are right maybe the PI's actually do hold the key!? Many PI's would accept a ten bagger out of the blue and the certainty of a deal. However a ten bagger rarely comes out of the blue, there would be a build up to such an offer.

That really would be outstanding, but a lot of long persevering PI's would settle for a lot less (imo), say £5+bn, not that such a figure truly values the potential. It would be tempting though and hence would get a fair level of backing from PI's, but the II's capitulation would be the key. What they are looking for is just anybodies guess, most II's are in at ca £1.2, so times 20 and some would accept and that might just tip the balance to an overall majority. However any such offer would become public and so hopefully a bidding war might ensue.

My remembrance is that II's hold about 60% of the issued shares, that plus HC's 15% plus a fair proportion of sticky PI's would mean that a good % would have to capitulate for a hostile offer to be successful! So any offer would have to be outstanding to convert the committed. Plus 50% on average of last 3 mths sp would be declined out of hand, imo. So little chance of a low bid being successful imo!

Yes where has the Santa rally gone , let alone fomo on near term mega news!?
I can only assume it is down to avacta being below the radar for many and also no spare cash available cos of cost of living crisis/xmas, and fomo not kicking in just yet. Things will change dramatically after xmas imo.

My view of what "the data emerging" means is that although the safety and tolerability should be comprehensively demonstrated, the efficacy (from biopsies and other data) will be demonstrated to an extent BUT not fully comprehensive due to the paucity of data (its good I expect, but not enough samples to declare it statistically proven)! That comes with P1b I assume.

"...POINT expects that its cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, combined with the upfront payments, will fund its current operating plan into 2026."
That is what I would expect from AS early in 2023......... Avct's finance runway for its forward operating plan! Whether this is at the Science day or shortly thereafter I am not sure, BUT that is what the City analysts and Fund Managers will want, it is the only thing they really understand......not just the science, key and interesting though that no doubt will be!! Science plus finance runway is the way forward to a new revolution.
GLA

“Its total wishful thinking Avacta make AVA6K to commercialization”
That may well be your view (& mine), BUT Avacta have to continue to put forward a credible plan/runway to get there alone. Otherwise any predators will detect weakness and swoop for a low/medium price!

Yeah was just being a bit pedantic around interpretation of word "complete"!
I agree that analysis should be well under way by now......still hoping for pre-xmas rns!

"The Phase Ia dose escalation study is expected to complete in late 2022"
Yeah the study maybe complete in Q4, but the data compilation and analysis may take a few weeks extra!?