I think those targets will be easily met, it is just a matter of when! This sp will only move now on good news, when the black cloud that is depressing the sp will be lifted. That is on a successful Lincoln result and quarterly production figures.
The market is driven by emotion at the moment, which is at a low ebb right now (because of WD result and Kerogen disposal), and not by technical fundamentals or future potential (as outlined in the CMD). The market is holding its breath and waiting on the next bit of good news to drive it forward. That should come with a positive Lincoln result ca mid Sept and quarterly production in arrears in Oct. Both should drive sp to 60+. IMHO
Anybody got any ideas when Zoetic will "launch" officially in both UK and US? Presumably simultaneously and with some serious fanfare/social media/PR? Surely it must be imminent, August anyway? Even an rns stating a launch date would be hugely beneficial to the sp. Or will they wait for an OTC listing?
When will HUR be considered an oil production company and be valued as such? That is a forward P/E of 15+. So by 2020 with 20000bd and say $45/bbl profit with little or no tax (due to c/f operating losses) then at a P/E of 15 the sp works out at ca £1.5 ! That is not based on 2P reserves only on profit. Any thoughts anyone?
I think that this "sell off" by Kerogen is quite a deliberate strategy by the whole BOD (with a Kerogen Director) inorder to provide more liquidity in the market and less dependency on Kerogen as the largest shareholder, and ultimately to the benefit of the HUR LTH's and the sp, all as advised and carried out by Morgan Stanley! Obviously Kerogen get a nice little bonus with a 300% profit on their 5% sold also, but that was NOT the reason, they sold for the long term benefit of the Company!? IMHO
Haggis, I don't agree, even if GWA is zero (which I do not believe for one minute) then the ultimate value of GLA alone is 1.75 billion barrels at say $7/bbl, once proven up. For sure the short term sp would suffer on any negative news, that is the expected emotional response, and always gets hyped down ( or up as the case maybe). Rarely does the sp reflect true value only perceived value by a relatively small number of PI's! IMHO.
On a true wild cat/discovery well, which Halifax was, the OGA will demand a very high mud weight over pressure to that predicted. This is what contributed mainly to the Halifax well bore "skin" problems. I expect that HUR will have convinced the OGA that Warwick Deep downhole pressures will be similar to Halifax and thus would approve a lower mud density, however maybe by not that much because, as you say, you don't know what you will hit, maybe a high pressure gas pocket.
Wulbert, Thats right just chill and wait for Warwick news and CMD. If you are a believer (as I am ) then the news will be good. Yes there appears to have been a few hiccups with WD, as aduk says these things happen, nothing to become distraught about otherwise we would have heard! The stop losses being activated no doubt contributed to the early 6% loss, all back on track now, although, like you, would love to see it higher. Only news will budge it from about here. I think it is better to NOT have an ongoing progress report, only rns real achievements/conclusions, as they are required to do anyway. Although it does test one's nerve a bit, but not that much for a LTH/believer! Markets do not go up in straight lines!
aduk, I agree with what you say, however my expectation is that the horizontal section/TD is about 2/3rds of the depth of the assumed oil depth (as we don't know where the OWC is!). In other words it is expected to have plenty of oil above and below.