Member Info for MCB55

MR, I was expecting Ph1a results about now (early Q1 I believe was mentioned at some point!?), but see from presentations that might now be end Q2! What is your expectation/understanding?

"But the fact that proof of concept for AVA6000 is within the next 12-18months, I don’t see a reason to throw the towel in. "
Full proof may take that long, but there are several important inflexion points along the way which will add value/derisk along the way. Starting with results of Ph1a, followed by results off Ph1b in 6 mths, and so on.

Bella, I can accept Ph1b being a bit delayed/extended due to Omicron/hospitals priorities, but what about reporting the conclusions of Ph 1a, can't see that should be delayed a few days!? There was talk of end of last year/early this year, so imminent? AS may have been sidetracked a bit attending to Affidx shortcomings, but that is now in the hand of the scientists and production team now.

MM, Avacta need to (and will imo) make Affidx at least a technical success inorder to demonstrate their credibility and capability to the world, that will then form a foundation for further diagnostic projects! The commercial success of Affidx will then follow imo, that is more than wash its face, however the level of future success is a matter of conjecture from a few million to a mega millions!

"It’s now very much a case of waiting for initial data which is due very soon from AVA6000 trials,"
This is due any day now, surely before end Jan!?

I agree that we've missed a lot in the last 18 maths, so what I mean "for the duration" is firstly at least the duration of Omicron (not just in UK, but around the ROW, particularly US), also be there for and responsive to any future mutations and lastly be there to expand the use of LFT's for other disease diagnostics! Avacta's diagnostic division is not just there for Covid (albeit 99% concentrated on that at the moment) but diagnosis of many other diseases.

Totally agree Monty!
There are some hidden messages in the RNS.
- a quick fix for omicron
- a quick FDA approval possible
- sales to US possible
- a long term next generation LFT redesign indicating that Avacta are still in this for the duration!

I agree Reaper, you argue it better than I did a few days ago, when I suggested that there maybe 2 versions, a quick fix for Omicron now and a longer term fix for the next generation LFT!

The Trinity valuation of the therapeutics side of the biz is at a 10% probably of success equivalent to an sp £2.28, so if ph1a is a success that should at least double to 20%, £4.56 plus diagnostics.

"mass deception, based on faulty PCR testing, a minimal threat from a highly survivable virus and propaganda, "
Another conspiracy theory! IF that were the case, THEN why would they, what is their motivation and how come every other Country in the world has essentially done the same thing!?

Is it possible that they will be pursuing two versions/solutions? A short term fix with a change of antibody just for Omicron and a long term fix using an affimer (more fundamental/redesign)!?

At least the Germans and Americans are waking up to the issue of lfts accuracy for omicron! HMG prefer to keep head in sand and carry on!!
Many lfts could be castigated in the next few weeks, just about when Affidx rises like Sphinx from the ashes!

All depends at what price the major shareholders are prepared to sell out at! I don't think that today's sp is relevant to that, all the LTH's would only sell for £5+, some PI's might be happy for £1, but those would not make a majority and so no takeover!!

Marik,
"As the pre|CISION platforms is unaffected by todays announcement, the therapeutics arm is worth £577 million i.e. 171p per share."
With no of shares in issue at 254m, then equivalent sp is £2.27 surely!?

Bella, totally agree, this is a tweak (not a fundamental change) that could be done quickly!

I expect UK volume suppliers (Surescreen/Innova) dare not do internal testing for Omicron detection sensitivity, like Avacta has done, because they are afraid of loss of contract/revenue!

CO totally agree, AS/Avacta are a responsible credible company and value their reputation highly, which is the only long term way to be!
How many other LFT suppliers even know how they respond to various levels of Omicron!? There seems to be a deafening silence from Surescreen, Innova, etc.
When we relaunch we will be in a stronger position than all the others!

Yes they will tweak it pretty rapidly and no doubt have been working on it for awhile already! Only question is what level of testing of the new product will be required before re launch. Is it just a lab test (like that which exposed this weakness) or something a bit more robust (and hence lengthy!) and what level of TT to Abdx is required? Hopefully the former, as it is a tweak and not a fundamental change!

It’s an update/ reiteration on 22/12 of a previous valuation, reconfirming a valuation of £2.8. This should dramatically change given good news on AV6000, at least double.
Reason current sp so low is lack of news and low sentiment on lft success, which will also change shortly, imho.

Moniman, they would say that wouldn't they! I am sure HMG "want" to end free testing and may have "floated" the idea to see the public reaction, but have rapidly retraced after negative responses!