Member Info for MCB55

"Could there be bigger discussions currently taking place? "
That occurred to me too!±
So the delay imo can only be:
- delay to cohort 4 or go to next DE
- analysis and peer review of the final data
- bigger commercial discussions.

I personally think/expect the summarised results to be Q4 accompanied by a future date for the science day (probably a month ahead). Its too late to organise a science day for this year imo.

Although I agree in principle with RAH's valuation methodology, CoS times future potential earnings times by av sector P/E, I however I am not by any means sure that is how the market will see the value in the short to medium term......long term quite probably though.
My view is that the short term sp will be driven/spiked by an emotional response to a "eureka" moment, fall back and form a new somewhat higher base and then prepare for a further move north depending on the level of continued media cover and more news.

NDN, At least better than Motley Fool!!

I say £2.5 by xmas, with possibly a higher interim spike!

Whats holding the sp back?
Is it just the working through of the PI offer and thus nothing will happen until 2nd or maybe 9th, is it lack of technical news (results) not until say ca 10th earliest, or is it waiting on science day say about 15-20th for definitive news.
I know patience is required only max a month now, but this is frustrating all the same!

S10, Agree sorting the finance prior to results turbo charges any rerate rather than a muted response pending capital raise post results!

I am confident of both the technical and financial position of Avct, however the market needs more convincing on the financial runway through to P2 and beyond! The Science day will move the sp quite a bit, but will not reach amazing heights until the financial/commercial runway is also clarified by a licensing deal, IMO! The two together would turbo boost the sp!

"This is not a situation where we get to the end of C4 and the SDMC then give Avacta all the data."
I agree that Avct will/should be collating the data progressively as we go along, BUT how long will they then need to review it all in house and with management and come out with an overall management summary/conclusion suitable for the press/RNS/presentation, at least 1-2 weeks I would have thought!? So maybe we get 1-2 weeks notice of the exact date of presentation. Possibly a brief summary/RNS before the presentation (?), but I doubt it.

As a responsible CEO when reporting historic results , AS should also provide a financial outlook too! Such an outlook must now include a strong guide on the funding runway, through to Ph1b completion, as current cash expires ca mid 2023. Future funding can not be left to be addressed/nailed til just before cash runs out! Therefore it would be very opportune to nail a license on final results or at least v shortly (!?) thereafter. So I agree Rip that a license deal for Ava3996 on final results is quite likely and necessary.

The market is only rational in that it reflects the general sentiment for the particular share and the overall market on the day. It rarely reflects the true chance of success even though the market is forward looking. Currently the general market mood is downbeat (cost of living crisis, etc) and Avct in particular is down partly due to that, but also due to there being few solid facts made public on the Ph1a outcomes (plenty of good indicators/inferences, but not much definitive) and nothing other than inferences about ongoing funding (licences, etc). So the "when the herd moves, the herd moves" seems applicable right now, the mood is currently somewhat negative, hence low sp, but not crashed. HOWEVER the mood/sp should/will turn positive in a rush/stampede once the mist clears and results and funding are fully clarified! THEN the sp will defy the general low market mood and rerate big time.
GLA

"Patents ONLY give the owner the 'ability' to try tp prosecute anyone who tries to copy etc without permission/license."
Totally agree, as a wise old sage once said " a patent is only worth what you are prepared to spend to defend it!"

There are many personal reasons to sell! Such as need to pay tax (my case soon, will have to sell 5%!), need to conserve cash for cost of living, call on funds to cover leveraged positions, etc!!

I would hope that AS advises tomorrow the precise date of P1a results announcement/investor presentation, and not just shortly!

Anyone else having trouble with Lee chat updates today!?

Also if you believe the total bought (748K) and sold (148k) on Lse board........why did the sp not move!?

"Perhaps financing clarity / certainty is what is holding the sp back?"
What is required is solid news to move the sp! Technical /data reveal backed up with clarity on a financial runway to self sufficiency is what's needed.

A lot of II's are not allowed to invest in AIM and those that do will have investment committees to approve all new/additional investments, and also a rule for the maximum holding allowed in any one stock ( probably quite low say 5-10% of their total portfolio!?).

Apart from all the technical progress, what PI's are looking for is some substance on the commercial side as well!
In the current market conditions there is not a lot of money around to speculate with, except for rock solid fast buck opportunities!

Given that DE2 level exceeded AS’s prediction and close to his DE3 prediction then there is a strong argument to suggest no need for DE3! So results in 3 mths then! This was discussed a couple of days ago.