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Our potential is just too tempting!
Hmm..... " And no, it doesn't depend on whether on not it is making money, it depends on the potential to make money in the future."
Its worth less if its not making money, do you agree?
Worth less than what?
Pointless discussion as we are fully funded and the DX business will be cash generating in 2025 so no reason to sell the business now. Build it up with full synergy and spin it off when things are fully integrated. Or keep it and see what happens. Deals will likely be done when more data emerges anyways.
So hard to stop BP taking us over… hardly queuing up are they . In fact I don’t think at this moment they have any purchase interest
“the DX business will be cash generating in 2025” - when was this confirmed?
“when more data emerges anyways” - how much, and when?
Less than 20p a share.
At 20p it would be valued at £75m.
If it was valued at that price it would have been sold and the debt cleared and more money left over in the bank.
Still, we are in a market where small Bio-Pharmas have been under the cosh but I am sure you are right with AVCT's steady hand on the tiller they will have doubled the value of the 2 companies even though they are not making money yet after nearly 18 moths of ownership
The FY 2023 adjusted revenue for the Diagnostics Division is approximately £22 million and the revenue forecast for FY 2024 is approximately £24 million. The Diagnostics Division is expected to be EBITDA positive in 2H 2024 and cash generative in 2025.
In the placing RNS….. 😉
Deals will be likely, once phase 2 efficacy is published as it’s stated in the investment note we need partners for phase 3, however I do expect other third party deals to arrive not for AVA6000 as the data emerges over the next 2 years. That’s imo though.
So 10x revenue is 65p per share then? Just for Diagnostics.
Annual results will be as at "audited preliminary results for year ended 31st December 2023" Maybe also get some forward diagnostic guidance .
-------------------------
--Trinity Note :
https://rtfilesprod.blob.core.windows.net/originalnotes/Avacta%20Update%20231214.pdf?sv=2019-07-07&sr=b&sig=fqVH2eWKz0ubrJ0qDPvIzChxsyeEzo4k%2FdOJG7q9HoM%3D&se=2024-04-29T12%3A26%3A58Z&sp=r
"Incorporation of the Coris acquisition (June 2023 Lighthouse) has led to an uptick in our Diagnostics DCF (over and above rolling forwards in time) largely owing to the higher revenues from the combined businesses, plus from future operational synergies. Recall Coris’ FY22 revenues were £4.6m (unaudited), with a c 50% gross margin, an EBITDA of £0.35m, and a £0.02m net loss. Hence, together with Launch Diagnostics (fully consolidated FY23e revenues of £17m), we expect combined fully consolidated FY24e Diagnostics revenues of c £23-24m; more details on our Coris forecasts follow in the next section of this note. "
Diagnostics "rNPV/ share (p) 14.3 pence "
Bridge, given your name this has worked out quite well,
I have this bridge for sale and the toll revenue comes to £10m per year. Will you give me £100m for it please?
(Oh by the way the upkeep of the bridge costs me £12m, so I am losing £2m per year. Anyway, shall I email over my bank details?)
It seems sensible to me to assume the results have been held back to coincide with the expiry of the 40 day blackout period. Despite the positive science the financials/fund raise have been driving this down from over £1 in the last year. Some clarity on this will surely have a very positive impact on the share price. And as I've said before, mention of a US listing would be nice.
Bridgedogg1...you might find this of interest:
'The Nasdaq Capital Market (Nasdaq-CM) is one of three listing tiers on the Nasdaq exchange, specifically for companies that need to raise capital.
Companies listed here may be small companies with a need to grow capital or shell corporations designed to raise capital in public markets for the purpose of acquiring other business entities.
Companies that don't qualify for the Nasdaq National Market trade on Nasdaq-CM.
Nasdaq Capital Market companies are required to meet a net income standard of at least $750,000, a minimum public float of 1,000,000 shares, at least 300 shareholders, and a share bid price of at least $4 (with certain exceptions).'
Bridgedogg1...you might find this of interest:
'The Nasdaq Capital Market (Nasdaq-CM) is one of three listing tiers on the Nasdaq exchange, specifically for companies that need to raise capital.
Companies listed here may be small companies with a need to grow capital or shell corporations designed to raise capital in public markets for the purpose of acquiring other business entities.
Companies that don't qualify for the Nasdaq National Market trade on Nasdaq-CM.
Nasdaq Capital Market companies are required to meet a net income standard of at least $750,000, a minimum public float of 1,000,000 shares, at least 300 shareholders, and a share bid price of at least $4 (with certain exceptions).'
Icecool...I was very specific in my post...and said Spin-off not Sell-off...
'A spin-off, split-off, and carve-out are three different methods of divestment with the same objective: to increase shareholder value.
A spin-off distributes shares of the new subsidiary to existing shareholders.
A split-off offers shares in the new subsidiary to shareholders but they have to choose between the subsidiary and the parent company.
A carve-out is when a parent company sells shares in the new subsidiary through an initial public offering (IPO).
Most spin-offs tend to perform better than the overall market and, in some cases, better than their parent companies.
Spin-Off
In a spin-off, the parent company distributes shares of the subsidiary that is being spun-off to its existing shareholders on a pro rata basis, in the form of a special dividend. The parent company typically receives no cash consideration for the spin-off. Existing shareholders benefit by now holding shares of two separate companies after the spin-off instead of one. The spin-off is a distinct entity from the parent company and has its own management. The parent company may spin off 100% of the shares in its subsidiary, or it may spin off 80% to its shareholders and hold a minority interest of less than 20% in the subsidiary.'
I also mentioned (again to see who was listerning) they could pay off the Bond...but this would not apply with a Spin-off and wasn't picked up by anyone so I take it many don't understand a Spin-off.
Sheppy they will queuing up after tomorrow
Sleep well shorty
Let’s see I don’t think the share price will go up more than a couple of pence if at all but truly hope I’m wrong. Think more likely to fall but again hope I’m wrong
Yeah Bella sounds good to me, as I said we are fully funded and more efficacy results will arrive before we need to concern ourselves with various options regarding more funding imo. Whether funding comes from DX options or licensing deal options or even Nasdaq options, the longer the positive data keeps emerging the stronger the position Avacta are in. We hired a very competent commercial expert in Dec, I have faith he will exceed expectations and deliver for the longterm.
If they do spin-out DX at some point...it can be listed as a separate company under a new name and existing shareholders could be shareholders in both companies. This then allows DX to carry on with it's M&A policy if they so wish and for both companies to realise their own potential and should TX be taken over or if worst happens and the trials fail then at least existing shareholders will be left with their DX holding.
I'm not saying it will happen but it could and would certainly explain the fundraise, website and AS comments re finance and shareholder value etc etc...
Bella. Would the "dividend" in the spin off scenario be treated as income by HMRC?
By the way my name is Sheppy not Shorty Watching
Oh pipper447 may I suggest you now do some research on the subject...