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The market will expect the first update on the 2WD tomorrow based on AVCT saying it would have the early results by the end of April.
Big, big day
Massive deals announced during results, Hurstbot prediction removed this morning but he's never been wrong 130s incoming..
What a load of nonsense, they didn’t say they would have the early results end of April, read the RNS.
I am not expecting deals...but if there is a definitive improvement in treatment due to 2WD then there would be a very sharp re-rate (imo).
Its just how much info will they have to share? If its an "early days, nothing to see here...yet" holding update then it might be like most updates, somewhat underwhelming, however it was AVCT that said "it expected the safety data monitoring committee (SMDC) to review the data from the two-weekly cohort one by the end of April."
(Hopefully they will have good news tomorrow. I think it more likely than not given the very late date for this update.)
What if they give clear indication Qw2 is going exceptionally well.
I'm sure there will be something in this update to send our valuation back up
Tomorrow will be results, that's it. This build up to every single meeting Avacta has is tedious and pointless.
The RNS says this:
Three patients have now been dosed in cohort 1 (160 mg/m2) of the two-weekly dose escalation study in the US and Avacta has received regulatory and ethics approval to open sites in the UK in the two-weekly arm. Avacta anticipates that the SMDC will review the two-weekly cohort 1 data by the end of April.
So we could get something this week or next on cohort 1 of 2w dosing.
Thats what I said.
(Also in updates they usually say how the new year has started and give guidance on what they expect. Given this update is 4 months into the first half of the new year then I expect something a bit more in depth, esp given the latest events....)
This should cut through the 50s fairly sharply
It needs to go up by at least 150% to get confidence back. Bare that in mind Alastair
So let's get this right. Tomorrow we're expecting:
- an announcement that AS is being replaced
- some brilliant explanation for the 50p raise, such as, we have been bought into by a european health fund at 50p and they're going to help sell avacta for 5bn in a month
- Big, big news on the first 2w cohort that the ultimate cure has been discovered.
Never been a bigger day in avacta history....
Anything less would be a massive disappointment gje. Imagine if they just present the results which is the purpose of the update.
If they get rid of Smiffy and TG the share price will be off to the races. The overhang of these two is bigger than the placing itself.
Everyone is building this up to be more than it is. Its a presentation of results...that is all
"Diagnostics - Significant progress towards establishing a fully integrated in vitro diagnostics business with first transformational acquisition"
I wonder what happened to that? - after our acquisitions it all went quiet
Nothing will be big tomorrow.
Stop bigging it up
It’s just results and nothing new
And anyway if it was positive news the share price would drop just like it does with every other positive bit of news !
Our Diagnostics purchases are probably worth around 20p in the current share price yet given no weight at all. Maybe we should just sell it off and focus on therapeutics.
Now there's an idea.
Bridge, current Mk cap is £180m If the Dx was worth somewhere between £18-36m then its worth maybe 5-10p.
We spent £31m outright plus £16m business performance payments. We already had our own small Avacta Diagnostics division. How much have pharma M&A valuations increase in the last year?! Should be worth £50m+. I’m not saying we would sell it, just that it has material value and we get very little news about it.
It depends if its making money or not.
Its immaterial what AVCT paid for it.
Hope shorters can sleep tonight!
Yes immaterial, but our best guide to what the value might be in absence of any other information. And no, it doesn't depend on whether on not it is making money, it depends on the potential to make money in the future.
I think it’s hard to stop a big pharma from taking us over
Would be great if we stay independent for a few years