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Started: Barno61, 25 May 2024 10:21
Last post: Barno61, 25 May 2024 10:21
Small but to the point article in stock watch.
Started: Barno61, 24 May 2024 14:09
Last post: Barno61, 24 May 2024 14:09
Posted elsewhere advfn. Excellent post and spot on.
elzco: The good news for the holders and new investors that have bought today after the company said that it exceeded it's forecasts for the year to 30/06/2024 "significantly" is the downsize for the shares is very minimal and the potential upside is huge.
Not everyone at IG opens short positions, i myself have traded long positions from IG.
The problem now for those that still may have short positions ( having been done by this very upbeat trading update ) is how much losses they can take because shares are likely to rerate aggressively ahead of the forthcoming trading update in early July.
Started: Barno61, 24 May 2024 08:59
Last post: Barno61, 24 May 2024 11:45
That’s a serious amount of debt gone with huge money inflows for the next few years.
Excellent update and RNS. A move upwards here for sure.
Amazing buying a plane and making more than the manufacturer selling it on.
Well done Avation.
From Google:-
The average hourly rental rate of the ATR72-200 is around 20,400 USD per hour. The average purchase price of a new ATR72-200 is 17,850,000 USD. The average purchase price of a pre-owned ATR72-200 is 26,000,000 USD.
Started: Bearraider, 20 May 2024 08:27
Last post: Bearraider, 20 May 2024 08:27
Interesting to see the Capital funds building stakes in AVAP with another RNS today (for crossing threshold on 16th May) Milkwood capital up from 3.4% to 4.7% crossed 3% on 24th April.
RNS on 16th May IG Markets through Equity Swaps crossed 3% of voting rights
RNS on 28th Nov FourSixThree Capital LP NY USA reduced from 5.84% to 4.78%
BUT the big one hovering up shares is Jefferies LLC NY USA on behalf of Rangeley LLC USA with 25.78% as at 10th November 2023 with a second string via JMK Raper 0.1905%. (which can build to 3% without further market notification)
Rangeley has an interest in Value investing, recently looking at 'Covid casualty stocks' it is also very activist, getting on boards, changing management, taking private, refinancing it at lower cost etc..
With over 36% of shares declared to be owned by Capital funds (may be others sub 3%b threshold) with most owned in the USA the future looks interesting.
As always DYOR and best of to all
Started: Bearraider, 15 May 2024 14:09
Last post: Bearraider, 17 May 2024 08:07
Whilst the RNS on the sale of two ATR aircraft in quarters either side of 24 year end brings in $10m profit, without AVAP having to increase borrowing to finance the planes it does mean that these next two planes will not now be available for lease. So short term gain (in 6 - 9 months time) at the expense of longer term fleet / turnover /profit expansion. Do current interest rates mean there is limited profit in buying new planes for lease. I note that Ryanair are complaining of lack of planes (they blame it on Boeing output) but could high interest rates also be to blame?
I have held AVAP a very long time, itwas once a bright star in my portfolio, then came a takeover bid foolishly & greedily I bought more, then along came Covid and what a sad story since. Planes grounded, debt interest soaring etc etc...
Well where are we now? At least all the spare planes are sold or on lease - financials are known, cash is flowing in, now we need to see the debt come down to increase profits , so as far as I can see this is a play on interest rates reducing, or a new takeover/merger approach. The big question is when? for either
Started: Troajan, 13 May 2024 14:39
Last post: Troajan, 13 May 2024 14:39
Started: Nutmegmilk, 18 Dec 2023 08:24
Last post: Gallmat, 4 Mar 2024 19:34
Happy they finally listened about share buy backs after laughing it off in prior call.
If 1m does not mean much to company just buy back. Making 100pct return and also lets shareholders exit if they feel like it.
If your sitting on 100m gbp what is issue in allocating 1pct to this to ease some pain
Looking for my 150p, come on!
Started: Gallmat, 23 Nov 2023 22:22
Last post: Gallmat, 13 Dec 2023 21:27
Once rates start to fall all these debt plays will rerate
That’s good news … I just would like 150p … it should be at least an now!
The Company's broker was approached over the summer in relation to a potential takeover offer, however, while the board diligently contemplated the proposal, the broker was ultimately unable to verify the funding package of the potential bidder and discussions were therefore brought to a close.
Started: Nutmegmilk, 23 Nov 2023 09:46
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 23 Nov 2023 09:46
This is edging up nicely, just a bit more for me and I have a big Christmas present!
Started: Just_a_guy, 12 Nov 2023 09:54
Last post: extrader, 17 Nov 2023 10:25
Here's an old article on Raper's investment approach :
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4412437-sa-interview-deep-value-and-special-situation-investing-with-jeremy-raper
.."As for investment decision process - this is a complex, multi-step process, but in general, I try to answer the following questions:
1) does this meet my minimum criteria for valuation (i.e., in general I won't buy anything more than 10x normalized free cash flow)?
2) does this have a strong downside protection (derived from asset value, or strategic value to an acquirer, or through potential strategic action)?
3) what does the market not understand about the value/quality of the business and how will that change in the next 12mos? i.e., what is going to get the market to view this asset like I do? What is the catalyst to rerate it?
Assuming all three of these criteria are met, then it can theoretically go into the book, provided point 3) is satisfied in spades - that is, I need to be fully convinced something is going to change, fairly imminently, as cheapness and downside protection alone are never enough.
I wonder what he thinks the catalyst for AVAP is - industry consolidation?
ATB
Unfortunately the podcast link didn’t work.
Jeremy raper on the business brew podcast touches on Avap
This might help explain it. Don’t think anyone is window dressing for performance…
[LINK REMOVED]
Started: Nutmegmilk, 10 Nov 2023 10:03
Last post: Gallmat, 10 Nov 2023 16:09
Institution purchased a big block.
They are just buying up small volume.
End of year looks like huge gain. 80p to 120!
Slow and steady rise … the way I like it, this still seems so under the radar …get in quick
Started: Nutmegmilk, 6 Nov 2023 13:27
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 6 Nov 2023 13:27
Less than half its Intrinsic value .. this surely should move up soon!
Started: Nutmegmilk, 2 Nov 2023 10:59
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 2 Nov 2023 10:59
I am after 150p for 1st target, it should be easy to get there!
Started: Nutmegmilk, 1 Nov 2023 10:05
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 1 Nov 2023 10:05
Nice
Started: Nutmegmilk, 26 Oct 2023 15:06
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 26 Oct 2023 15:06
Well this is looking a bit better, still climbing, nice to see the shorters dont have thier greedy fingers in all the pies!
Started: Nutmegmilk, 20 Oct 2023 16:23
Last post: Gallmat, 20 Oct 2023 19:12
Easy bonus. Take big block in off market trade. Spend a bit more in illiquid market. Show big profit get paid bonus.
Good to see a small rise!
Started: Nutmegmilk, 9 Sep 2023 10:18
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 17 Oct 2023 07:49
Thanks for your view Carcosa, back in with a few to see!
Also worth remembering that Avation had negotiated a 'very good' inflation price cap whereby they heavily implied is well within the current inflation environment making the rights more valuable. Furthermore the Purchase Rights cost no further money to maintain as is. Neither do they need to find any customers for utilising these rights as they can either form a JV or immediately sell the aircraft at delivery (as they have done in the past generating significant profit.
Furthermore they are believed to have the largest number of ATR Purchase Rights than any other lessor.
With constrained ATR production(~30 this year and hopefully rising to 80 in one or two years) the longer they maintain the rights the greater the value.
Nevertheless, apart from the two additional ATR's next year, organic growth of the ATR fleet appears to be muted for the next 18 months or so. Therefore am hopeful some jet narrowbodies will be added to the fleet.
I think I may buy back in!
I was in same situation.
My main worry was that 1/3 of nav was purchase rights. The company explained these rights ( or options) do not really have an expiration date, they mutually role the dates. They also said they can purchase below market value because purchase price in option is has a cap. So as inflation goes up. Aircraft goes up but purchase price less.
Nothing in detail given but it did make me have some more comfort on nav
Just having a look at this again .. I sold out and sort of wish I did not! … seems to be on a rise again!
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 29 Aug 2023 07:31
I would be happy with 150p ... but it is taking longer than I though!
282p. interesting. value in PLANE sight?
Started: Nutmegmilk, 10 May 2023 11:00
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 3 Aug 2023 08:54
WOW primetimer you would think I was here to make money .....what is your goal to make a loss? doing a great Job so far in easyjet!
Nutsack milk should not be listen to he will be long gone once he has reach his goal of pumping any share he is in.
gl every one else
To be honest, that should be sitting in the 200’s now, and that is only haft is intrinsic value
But I have plans for my 75% profit at 150p and in case this war turns into something ridiculous or some new virus outbreak. I wish I had a crystal ball!
Debt is not due for couple of years. I think when fed starts to reverse rate rises it will fly.
We have time for that to happen
Looking good ... still holding for 150p cant understand why it is taking so long with all the good news!
Started: Nutmegmilk, 26 Jul 2023 07:20
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 26 Jul 2023 07:20
Still hoping and holding, but It is taking so long .. though 150p would have been a definite!
Started: Nutmegmilk, 14 Jun 2023 13:17
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 14 Jun 2023 13:17
Still waiting for 150p … come on Avap you know your worth it!
Started: Nutmegmilk, 19 May 2023 15:46
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 19 May 2023 15:46
Creeping back up … come on 150p need my 70% profit asap …
https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/soaring-prices-for-used-aircraft-appear-to-be-leveling-off/
If you are worried of circle of competence i would look elsewhere. Lit.l and tirupati graphite just had very good news today (much less specialist to follow)
Why do you disagree with a nav that meets accounting standards.
Loads of articles saying there is aitcraft shortage and second hand prices are high. Just google 2nd had aircraft prices
Can't say that I agree with the NAV here, but pre-covid earnings were exceptional, in relation to the current market cap. Can anybody who has an extensive understanding of this company and/or industry shed some light on how likely AVAP is to return to such levels of profitability. Also, what sort of timeline is expected for this to be achieved? I understand that none of you have a crystal ball, but this is currently outside my circle of competence
Price now 137p
The first share post by me on Barc after a £7.5 fund raise 12th March 2021 at 110p .
soi later bought on 24th March 2021 at 101p only to sell April 2021 102.86p .
They fell to a low of 64p 20 May 2022.
It is about time .
This was tipped at 120p by one of the best investors I know and ST from investors chronicle, but I do love all the entertainment on the chat .... if you can drive the sp down for a even more greedy entry point thanks I will have some of that!
Started: Nutmegmilk, 3 Mar 2023 09:19
Last post: Nutmegmilk, 3 Mar 2023 09:19
Go baby 150p soon