Member Info for Bearraider

I agree with a previous poster that DUKE tell us very little about the performance of the underlying companies in the portfolio so I decided to dig deeper.

Not really happy with what I found as I waded through Tristone AR 25 on the UK GOV website . They increased T/O yes, but they increased % costs more than % T/O hence LOST £1.9 million up from LOSS £0.9 million in 2024 . The properties are worth £8 million so the £24 m loans are hardly asset backed. The intangibles (i.e the branding /goodwill of businesses acquired) equates to around half the loan. They pay £3.6 million in finance cost (mostly to DUKE) they would need to more than half their finance costs to just break even! The 13.5% interest they pay DUKE is driving them towards bankruptcy !

Creo o tech were lent C$28.9 m yet the company T/O was only C$5.5 m at last filing and DUKE own 99.9% of the company.

Scared to dig into the rest of the portfolio not sure what I think about DUKE as a sound investment now with their large % shareholding plus loans in their companies they are more like a conglomerate group than a pure credit supplier.

Whilst CHH may not make real headway till the market improves, IC seems overly negative.

Not sure what 'looming cost pressure' IC is referring to if it's CHH energy costs then read the results carefully less than 20% of energy costs for 2026 are not already fixed, and only 36% of 2027 are not fixed either. Wonder how many airlines wish they were in that position?

Considering CHH is on a path to reduce its energy usage the variable gap may be even smaller. Main materials are sourced in house and action has been taken to reduce costs there further. Increasing mechanisation will reduce the head count.

CHH is not Denby pottery most of CHH product serves a different need and market. Where there was a crossover CHH may pick up new customers.

DustPhotonics based in Modiin Israel has just been bought for $1.3 Billion by Credo, DP has 70 employees so is quite small but is in production.

Not sure why people think Texas is against renewable energy it is way ahead of California. Texas logic is get as much from renewables for our own use and flog are old carbon stuff to others.

What Trump says affects grant aid/tax breaks etc.. but business ignores him if the cost of old carbon energy is more expensive than renewables see https://www.ksstradio.com/2025/11/renewables-are-doing-some-heavy-lifting-when-it-comes-to-the-texas-grid/#google_vignette

FIPP owns 9.1% of 2D Photonics which owns 100% of CamGraPhIC which just got a £183.45 million grant so FiPP just got a boost in it's investment portfolio of 9.1% of £183.45m = £16.693 million of development funding when all of FIPP is valued at around £12 million.

Now if a cash strapped government like Italy is betting £184m in grants on this then it is either desperate or believes in this in a big big way.

I have bought more today but can only get 5000 at a time as I believe long term this could be a great investment if the photonic cells come to market and are better than the competition. As always DYOR

Not all wind downs are bad news I hold ENRG bought a year ago at 55p before the wind down announcement has risen steadily now just above 70p against a NAV of 100p .

However with SEIT it all may depend on debt and how it is accounted for, sales of an asset may not generate cash to return to SH at first it may go to pay down debt thus losing the income return from the asset which may affect dividends.

If debt is held against each asset individually then only that debt needs to be repaid, any balance may be used to pay down other group debt or be returned to SH ( held till windup/cashback/ used to support the dividend).

Difficult to tell if a lot of sells will force the price down further (may do short term) or the wind down will generate buying interest at this level.

Looks like a careless cut & paste job on the NAV and fact sheet, the correct figures show a 4.2% reduction in NAV over the last Q of 2025,

hope that's not a trend.

Today's circular seems a complicated way to return proceeds of asset sales rather than just paying a special dividend, anybody know why?

The question I am asking myself is when to jump ship - considering the steadily rising share price, how close to NAV will assets sell, what dent will sales costs make on realisable NAV, the current dividend is not quite covered this will get worse as cash generators assets selloff (I expect they will be the easiest to sell) if the gap between SP and realisable NAV closes further are there better shares on wider discounts and with covered dividends.

Have been buying LTHM as a hold for the long term a solid well funded /run company, with a good cash pile and NAV.

With one of the main competition out last year I expect LTHM will have been picking up new customers.

What's not to like?

On renewed leases rents up 31% so far this year - up over 56% in last Q

could indicate rent review rates are now accelerating

occupancy up 0.8% to 96.1% - retention rate 91%

Good sales at book value - cash raised being recycled as NRR beds in Capital's portfolio and sells down Bravo JV's

Seems a good deal struck for Capitol centre Cardiff now a core asset not a disposal.

Nice to see a BUY recommend from Goldman and a lift in Target price from 300p to 328p yesterday.

MNG is now (after last 2 days) my largest holding sadly I sold some back at 262p to trim (hindsight always a great thing)

As a financial MNG is vunerable to market sentiment in the wider investment world and I think with the big gains behind

I also am going to cut my stake here again (normally to regret it latter) but trying to find good dividends in sound companies is getting

harder. I am already too heavy in renewables and property trusts.

TORO one of my buys for my income PF last year in the finance world steady 10% divi but the SP is as boring as watching paint dry almost Trump gob off proof.

Energold already owns 19.6% of AYM

The issue of warrants at around 0.3p (the avg 5 day SP prior to 5th Dec 25 ) for £350,000 will provide 1167 million share warrants 2.39 x the shares currently in issue.

Whilst EG will limit it's excercise of the warrants to a level so it does not have to bid to take control ( normally 29.999%) it will still own the outstanding warrants.

AYM will consolidate the shares 10 for 1 it will then seek to issue more shares , unwary investors will be sucked in all the capital raised is really providing funds for Energold to develop the mine whilst limiting the costs to themselves.

Once (if) the mine is ready to go (EG will know before we do with it's two guys on the Board) they will probably go for control by excercising their warrants and take the company private if at the time they own more than 50% + 1 of the company the buyout on their terms is unstoppable.

I once owned shares in a company (great prospects amazing patents but in distress ) that this happened too. SP was at 7p the vulture fund (same guys who took out British Leyland) converted their warrants (recieved when they put in a loan) and then offered 1p per share to outstanding shareholders and took the company private. They ran it for a few years then sold it to an American company at a price that would have equated to over 33p per share.

Since then I always check out the outstanding warrants/share options held and their terms before I invest particularly in the micro/small company area I invest in.

HL hold your shares in a custodian called HL nominees Ltd

IT IS A NON TRADING COMPANY - the clue to what they cannot do with your shares is in the key words NON TRADING

Hi Wiscos (and others) HL or others like them (I'm with ii) do not lend your shares to any other financial entity check the agreement you signed when you joined. Your shares are in your name so if HL or ii went bust you would still own the shares and the funds from their sale if they were being sold at the time.

Hope that makes you feel better as they didn't lend your shares to shorters to use against you!

Company expectations - 25 to be modestly below 24 when pretax was £204 m

Q4 says unchanged except now a £ 4.5 m tax charge from previous years has appeared on top of the modestly below.

Average Market Expectations were (before Q4 update) £180 m 25, and £193 m 26. (approx a 7% uplift)

In other words they were expecting a 12% fall in profit 24 to 25 with an uplift of 7% in 26 so still be below peak profit of 24

Now 25 includes some serious capital expenditure classed as peak with fall in 26 (so profit should increase - but company expectations are same level as 25 even with an increased amount of locations and better locations).

If you are happy with a good company on a decent PE of 11 (so making decent profits) with a 4% twice covered dividend and take a long term view that when consumer confidence improves /excess cap ex costs are over and the new facilities are running smoothly and cutting cost s in 27 and beyond so that profits will rise.

Then Greggs is a good hold but all speculation the price is going to rocket are nonsense it is fairly valued at current and near future profits with some upside if consumer confidence improves.

1. There are some powerful names in the list of short position holders, they may be right and know or suspect something we don't know.

2. Some of our short holders may have both long and short positions in Greggs (you or I would normally need to do this in different accounts with different brokers unless you were using CFD's for one position) one term for this is called 'shorting against the box'. Depending on prices paid for the different positions it can both protect holders against volatility and they may even be able to lock in a profit from their holding.

The danger comes IF the results are below expectations or meet expectations but come with some attached caveat the market could be seen as not liking and therefore not really positive for an uplift to the SP and then one or more dual position holders can see more profit in forcing the price down by selling some of the shares they own hoping the herd will panic if they see the price going down and sell into the fall thus causing a plunge from which they can close positions to make a profit (or even just mitigate losses on a failed strategy).

If the SP falls dramatically due to such manipulation I will buy more as I personally intend to hold /add as I expect that in the medium to long term Greggs will prosper as the new centralised facilities come on stream in 26/27 and if all goes as planned this will cut costs substantially.

Plus the potential for an increase in both the number of sites and move to larger sites with cafes.

In addition to the roll out of more Greggs products for 'take home and bake ' from the freezer section in supermarkets (plus more supermarkets?)

Along with a low PE and a decent dividend.

As always DYOR

Of all the similar bond/debt funds BIPS has the lowest dividend return (approx 7% compared to 8 - 8.6% in other funds) but in my opinion is the best.

1. It is the largest (still open to invest)

2. It has the lowest PE ratio of its peers

3. Dividend is always covered by around 1.1x as and has grown for the last 5 years at least.

4. It holds back around 10% of its income each year (for the last 5 at least)

5. This means NAV can grow, nearly all the other peers surrender capital in most years to cover dividend beyond earnings.

6. BIPS is finding ready buyers for more shares at a slight premium to NAV these are being placed with institutional buyers which is encouraging.

Whilst I have holdings in several other debt vehicles like Duke & Toro which return in the region of 10% they do carry more risk and therefore I have smaller

holdings there compared to BIPS which is my 2nd largest tuck away holding in my income portfolio.

If a company was reporting the kind of growth this fund is

"Looking at all the companies in our portfolio, the weighted average growth in revenue and EBITDA for the twelve months to 30 June 2025 was 22.9% and 22.5% respectively. For our co-investment portfolio, which accounts for just under 40% of the portfolio by value, the comparable figures are 15.8% and 26.8%. For all companies and co-investments, there has been a noticeable quarter-on-quarter acceleration in EBITDA growth."

It would be classed as a growth company it's EPS would be north of 20, highly unlikely to be trading below NAV and not paying a div of 6%!

If the growth both in revenues and EBITDA compound at this rate over ta few years a lot of value will lock in and be reflected in the SP once exits become easier.

As stated back in May I planned to add more BIPS if /when suitable for me, and have done so at just above NAV

(but lower than recent new share placings) encouraged to see more shares being placed at above NAV on a regular

basis an avenue not open to many trusts which are trading below NAV.

Good to see where some of those growth point shares went - particularly pleased to see Premier Miton (who have a good rep) increase their shareholding above 5%.

Growthpoint are out - Good - no overhang dribbling out

New and existing shareholders bought up nearly 5% of the shares in NRR at 75p - widens our shareholder base - Good

NRR used cash to buy 10% of the shares up for cancellation - cost of borrowed money less than paid out in dividends - Good