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Today's RNS tells us that AVAP has bought another 2,500,000 shares in CLA taking it's ownership to just under 70%. It has used AVAP shares at a ratio of 1 : 6.55 CLA thus valuing each CLA share at 20.4 p a considerable premium to the 15.75p mid price. There are three reasons I can think of for this (1) Doing a friend a favour (there are a few connections between AVAP and CLA (2) The seller was reluctant at selling at current market price which is so far below NAV of 27.75 p and needed sweetening and AVAP are desperate to increase their ownership of CLA (3) AVAP are getting close to launching a full bid for CLA I had toyed with the idea of buying some CLA to take advantage of the bid/offer if/when it comes but AVAP hold all trhe cards there can be no counterbidder and AVAP could just offer an equity swap at near market rates
Good to see Aberdeen Asset Management increase it's shareholding past 12% - total declared ii is now 54% or so plus smaller holdings by other ii below the 3% declaration level
Doing a bit of research on ALK it seems like the planning application for the trapped natural gas under Callow has been rejected - as yet i cannot find why - It is a council rejection (subject to about 30 conditions the planning officer gave approval all of which are pretty normal most of them put forward by ALK in the proposal) there may be strong grounds for an appeal as the rejection seems to be a political one not a planning issue. http://www.alkane.co.uk/images/Calow/Derbyshire%20county%20council%20not%20granted%20-%20final%20press%20release.pdf
Alkane owns 40,000,000 = 18.1% of EDG Premier Oil owns 39,200,000 = 17.75% of EDG : in three holdings Premier Oil (EnCore Petroleum) Limited - 20,400,000 (9.24%) EnCore (NNS) Limited - 18,000,000 (8.15%) EnCore Oil Limited - 800,000 (0.36%) JPMorgan Asset Management Holdings Inc : 15,065,000 (6.82%)
Alkane owns 40,000,000 = 18.1% of EDG Premier Oil owns 39,200,000 = 17.75% of EDG : JPMorgan Asset Management Holdings Inc : 15,065,000 (6.82%) Premier Oil (EnCore Petroleum) Limited - 20,400,000 (9.24%) EnCore (NNS) Limited - 18,000,000 (8.15%) EnCore Oil Limited - 800,000 (0.36%)
If you missed this article - well worth a read http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/market_reports/69029/oil-gas-market-wrap (% of shares ALK and Premier oil own are a little off I think I am trying to locate up to date figures for ownership of Egdon.
As ALK now own 18% of all that Egdon own this may be of interest 29 May 2014 EGDON RESOURCES PLC ("Egdon" or "the Company") PEDL 180 and PEDL 201 Egdon Resources plc (AIM:EDR) notes the announcement today by Europa oil and gas that the Wressle-1 well on licence PEDL 180 will spud in July 2014 at which point the Company will provide a further update. Egdon has a 25% interest in, and is operator of PEDL 180. Egdon also notes the resource assessment announced today by Union Jack Oil plc in respect of the northern parts of PEDL 201. Egdon has a 32.50% interest in, and is operator of PEDL 201.
Are we man enough (not wishing to exclude any ladies out there) to take the disappointment that this month will bring, in each case we will hope for the best BUT, at various moments we may be on the edge of our seats BUT, Just sitting here (having watched Brazil/Croatia - should have got an Oscar for acting not a penalty) thinking which will disappoint the most, The England Team, Andy (will an English female even get through the 1st round) or waiting for Corac to announce CET have either sold or got a contract to sell something - anything - even on ebay.
The RNS today is very good - turnover up 29%- pretax profits and EPS up 25%- 6 more planes due before the end of 2014 will increase the fleet size by another 25% if all are retained and leased (AVAP does sell it's plane production slots if they have no lease customer lined up - profit region of £1m on last sale). We know that 2 are lined up for Uni - air of Taiwan. Possible two more are on route to Fiji link who took delivery of their first plane from AVAP on the 6th June ( Fiji link are planning two to replace two more planes before year end). My slight concern is that profit growth is smaller than turnover growth - ideally profit should grow faster than turnover as central costs should diminish in % terms relative to turnover. However there are logical reasons why this may not happen - new lease start up/plane delivery costs are taken up front - several lease refinancing have taken place during the year again charges tend to be taken upfront- these will reduce costs but full benefit will not kick in till the first full year. There may also be a growth of sales/office staff ahead of planned growth in business(and we know that AVAP has been recruiting in Singapore during the year.
It seems the continuing uplift in price at SN may now be being fueled by the speculation that Zimmer is in the frame (excuse the pun) now that Stryker has declared out (my understanding is that if Zimmer make a run for it then Stryker can re-enter without waiting six months as their declaration was only a 'we are not making a bid now - unless things change' - which a bid from Zimmer would. This all may be based on an article in the FT (which I cannot access) that someone is checking SN out this article was added 3 hours after Stryker had declared a not bidding now statement yesterday- anyone seen the FT article?
I bailed today on NG at 859p. The SP had risen strongly expecting better results than a 1% rise in profits which is below inflation. The div rises to match inflation but the cover diminishes further. I may be back if the the PE improves it is after all a good dividend payer
Hi Mega - have you noticed the selection of various points to present the order book data - "Group order book rising by 15% since the end of 2013" "ACI's order book at the end of March has risen by £2.8m since the start of the year to £8.7m." (equal to 47.45% rise) HTT "Building on a strong close to 2013, the year-on-year order book has grown by 55%" Whilst all these 3 statements seem positive indicating an increase in the order book, if they were all using the same reference point the unspoken statement would be that the CET order book has plummeted lowering the 50% ish increase in the order book of the other two divisions to average 15% across the group. As CET does not really have an order book as such - just some grants and partnership funds the figures don't seem to make sense. It always concerns me when companies have to be selective in how they present their figures. Still think CRA is a good value play at this price - just depends on either CET coming good or the other two divisions booming enough to compensate for any failure at CET to become cash burn neutral or profitable
Today EDG gained nearly 10% on the back of the ALK tie up whilst ALK went down 5% figure that!! On the EDG bb they seem convinced they are the big winners from the deal. I disagree the way I see it is this. ALK do not need to invest in all the costs of bringing shale gas to market on their acreage - if all fails it has cost nothing because there was no viable shale gas on the license acreage. If their is viable shale gas they get an 18% share of the profit - If EDG discover non shale gas while drilling then that belongs to ALK 100% (as does any non shale gas that ALK finds for itself on the acreage) ALK itself will not drill deep enough to find shale gas. It may seem that ALK has given away the potential profit on 82% of any shale gas found on their acreage but don't forget they have also gained 18% of the profit off all shale gas/ oil etc found on the acreage that EDG owns already plus what it may acquire in the next license round. The third benefit is that ALK have the right to access any discovered shale gas to power their units to provide electricity not sure if this only applies across ALK acreage or if it applies across all EDG acreage as well but it would seem to present real opportunity for ALK to develop it's core business. Any wells that are not viable to connect to the gas grid may have sufficient available gas to power an ALK unit, the input cost for the gas will probably be lower as otherwise it has no market value. Contrary to what the SP is doing I feel that ALK is now a far better play on any future shale gas potential than any other company. I will be using the fall back in sp to add to my holding in ALK as soon as i can move some capital.
The rns for today is good news for AVAP and the SP. Firstly it means higher visibility for AVAP in the aircraft leasing market being in the Singapore government recognised scheme takes it onto the same playing field as other lessors more prominent in the Singapore market ( RR have based a facility for aero engines in Singapore because of it strategic importance in the far east aviation market). Secondly it MAY reduce costs of finance (reduction in admin/compliance costs) and finally a corporate tax rate of 10% on profit. This should be positive for cash flow in the business which is the only real measure of a company and it's Sp over time.
Now we know why PG jumped the gun with a broker statement must have know good news was coming today. The news that sales are recovering in the second half as per hope expressed at half year stage and also that the first half year for the year we are in looks good bodes well for the SP. The jump today means we have already reached the reiterated expected SP of two brokers with the target price of two more still ahead at 100p up. The best news in this is the increase in positive cash flow - for me when all is said and done it is cash flow that determines where a company is going over the medium/long term
I wonder why we have a broker restatement today, ( looks like a house broker) with expected update due soon? it seems a little premature but it has moved the Sp upwards a little - but not enough yet to get me to break even on my average.
Today I bought DIGS for my ISA (my purchase at 105p showed as a sale) as an 'alternative investment' to my other investments in shares as even though it is a share it should display more of the characteristic of an inflation linked bond. As a REIT (real estate investment trust) it has to pay out 90% of net income as a dividend. GCP believe that this should be around 5.5% of the launch price of 102p and seems to be planning quarterly payouts of 1.35p for 2014. These payouts should rise in line with inflation as the rents charged to the students will also rise with inflation. The NAV will be largely determined by the rental return so it too will rise as rents rise, it is unlikely rents will fall - unless we have prolonged deflation or unless there is an oversupply of quality student accommodation in London both of these seem unlikely. NAV may fall as interest rates rise if that leads to a higher expected return from rental of property. A squeeze on net income may also come from rising interest rates as about 30% of Digs is borrowed money, though most of the borrowings are hedged for a couple of years. DIGS SP will not rise rapidly but should remain fairly stable linked to underling NAV rather than the general stock market.
Not really a Director share purchase Julia has just used a bed and Isa she will have sold her shares then via arrangement with her broker bought them back into her ISA at no spread. I assume she either likes to keep her paperwork to a minimum by holding shares in her Isa or/in addition it may be she believed she was doing the tidy up at the low point for the sp and taken her maximum capital gains loss (she can use against gains elsewhere) whilst keeping any future gains inside her ISA and tax free. Mildly positive action but would have nice to see her use all her ISA allowance and top up with more shares and make a real director purchase.
The share price also sank from 12.5p on no news over recent weeks. Possibly the recent small rise is a bounce off the bottom, there will be a few buyers who sold their shares when the Sp was falling who have bought back in at a lower price as they believed it had bottomed. The buying of the last few days seems to have petered out as there is virtually none now so without news I don't expect much probably just a little bouncing movement in a range with 7.5p being the bottom (hopefully) and a sub 10p price being the top
Below I have pasted the RNS from the 24th April good to see the directors still adding shares into their ISA's even the one who sold 12,500 bought 785 back into his ISA. The family control over 53% of the shares though after these last sell/buys that has dropped by about 11,000. Had a fantastic run with GDWN this last year (up over 70%) the current PE is pricing in a good set of results for the year just ended - but we will have to wait a while to see. DIRECTORS' SHAREHOLDINGS The Company received notification on 24th and 25th April 2014 of the following transactions in which Mr. J. W. Goodwin, Mr R S Goodwin, Mr. M. S. Goodwin, Mr. S. R. Goodwin and Mr. B. R. E. Goodwin, directors of the Company, are interested. 1. The purchase by Mr. J. W. Goodwin of 265 ordinary shares in the capital of the Company into his ISA account at a price of £40.903 per share on 24th April 2014. The purchase by Mr. J. W. Goodwin's wife of 265 ordinary shares in the capital of the Company into her ISA account at a price of £40.903 per share on 24th April 2014. 2. The purchase by Mr. R. S. Goodwin of 292 ordinary shares in the capital of the Company into his ISA account at a price of £39.75 per share on 23rd April 2014. The purchase by Mr. R. S. Goodwin's wife of 285 ordinary shares in the capital of the Company into her ISA account at a price of £39.74 per share on 23rd April 2014. 3. The purchase by Mr. M. S. Goodwin of 785 ordinary shares in the capital of the Company into his ISA account at a price of £40.40 per share on 23rd April 2014. The sale by Mr. M. S. Goodwin of 12,500 ordinary shares in the capital of the Company at a price of £39.00 per share on 23rd April 2014. Mr. J. W. Goodwin, Mr R. S. Goodwin, directors of Goodwin PLC, and their sons Mr. M. S. Goodwin (also a director of Goodwin PLC), Mr. S. R. Goodwin (also a director of Goodwin PLC), Mr. B. R. E. Goodwin (also a director of Goodwin PLC) and Mr. T. J. W. Goodwin are acting in concert (and deemed to be so).