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Fantastic effort . Numbers crunching is always good to reassure yourself you have it right . Always nice to see others helping other investors out also . We are all here for the same reason .
Yep, spot on, I knew I’d make at least one slip up, but at least it’s one that makes the figures look even more appealing.
Thanks for the correction Early_Bird!
From the Q3 results
"§ All-in sustaining cost ("AISC") ³ at USD 30 452 was slightly above management guidance of between USD25 000 and USD30 000 per tonne of contained tin."
Great Post rbuk, always love to see the numbers broken down. Just a quick query relating to the AISC you use is for "Tin Concentrate" when actually the company AISC stated cost I can see is "Containted Tin". Therefore isn't the below correct? (Essentially Tin revenue and AISC cancel each other, leaving lithium revenue -20% and Tanatalum revenue - 20% as the profit)
Tin Revenue $42m + lithium (Petalite) revenue (-20%) $38m + tantalum revenue (-20%) $4m - total ASIC contained tin cost $42m
Gives $42m profit
U.S. to provide more than $2 billion in loans to Lithium Americans project in Nevada.
14, 2024 14:03.
U.S. to provide more than $2 billion in loans to Lithium Americans project in Nevada
The Biden administration will announce plans to provide more than $2 billion in loans to U.S. lithium producer Lithium Americas Corp. The company is developing the largest lithium deposit in the United States in Nevada. A conditional loan commitment could come as early as Thursday, people familiar with the matter said. And the U.S. Department of Energy will provide the loan to the company's subsidiary Lithium Nevada Corp. to build a lithium carbonate processing plant.
This is a huge amount of money and confidence what lies ahead within the Lithium future markets.
Then there's this.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-lithium-boom-slows-sagging-prices-batter-high-cost-miners-2024-03-13/
The lepidolite, spodumene narrative is an interesting one for a company in Andrada's position.
TDT
It's all shaping up quite nicely IMO.
https://www.mining.com/web/the-big-lithium-short-gets-dangerous-on-lower-supply-outlook/
TDT
Good effort rgbuk. I hope you're right.
TDT
Just thought it would be interesting exercise to see what the future revenue and profit were looking like. This is obviously just my very rough estimates so feel free to add/subtract as you feel necessary! Please be polite if I’ve missed any glaring errors as it’s just simply meant as a rough view for me to see where the company is going and it might potentially help others too.
These are figures of proposed increases in operations, I’m not going to amend them as AV has been pretty accurate in meeting previous guidance.
So for revenues:
Tin: 2600 tons of tin concentrate which is roughly 60% tin metal, let’s take $27000 as the tin price.
2600*.6* 27000 = $42m
Lithium (Petalite): 30000 tons which they suggest they can sell for between $1600 to $2200 per ton, so let’s take the low end.
30000 * 1600 = $48m
Tantalum: 83 tons but this is a concentrate of about 24% tantalum oxide. Tantalum oxide sell for about £250000 per ton.
83 * 250000 *.24 =5m
So all in all roughly $95m revenue.
Ok, so profit/loss
The ASIC cost in the last set of figures was just over $30,500 per ton of tin concentrate. That included the advanced stripping and the Orion royalty. We can assume that additional stripping will not be required for several years which, let’s be very conservative, brings the ASIC down by $1000 a ton, also the new ore sorting will reduce the ASIC by roughly 10%.
So the ASIC reduces to roughly $26.5k per ton of tin concentrate.
We are all aware that the petalite and tantalum processing costs are low due to the fact they are a ‘by product’ of the tin processing, but let’s say we take off 20% for their processing, shipping, etc.
Tin Revenue $48m + lithium (Petalite) revenue (-20%) $38m + tantalum revenue (-20%) $4m - total ASIC tin concentrate cost $69m
Profit $21m
Obviously this does not include any economies of increased throughput.
We obviously then have the next phase of lithium (spodumene) and potentiality tungsten, copper and more tin.
As a long term holder I’m very happy with the way the company is progressing and look forward to more exciting news to come!
I think this behaviour goes with AIM shares, some pi's see the drop, then realise they could of sold at say 4.90 in this case, but they feel it could drop further and panic selling now, their method is thinking they keeping the powder dry, though it could well not drop anymore and rise up, so you selling for a loss due to the transaction fees and a spread.
All IMHO
I think we all know that stock markets by enlarge are both irrational and unpredictable but I do find it so puzzling when u see 2/3 days ago it’s was 4.90 -5p to sell and obviously a fair few did and I get that after the recent rise too but what I do find odd is like today why would anyone be selling at 4.4-4.5 when they could have done at 4.9-5 p 2 days ago …
A couple of new articles, nothing really new in them from what I can see.
https://miningandenergy.com.na/andradas-first-tantalum-shipment-set-for-march-2024/
https://theextractormagazine.com/2024/03/13/andrada-anticipates-tin-concentrate-production-to-increase-from-1-500-to-2-600-tpa/
Not with $35mil in the bank
SP action odd with a large spread on the back of Tin heading north. I wonder if they are look at a raise in the background
Tin and lithium rebounding and people still sell. Plenty of news coming .
Tin breaking out over night .
Loveky stuff
Https://www.metal.com/Tin/LME_SN_3M
Tin 28200 get in there ..
Be $30k in no time
AV has avoided any sort of mkt raise so think this is unlikely, he is just trying to be positive.
plenty of facilities to get extra money if needed, and there will be some pure cash element (maybe a lot) when this damn lithium deal(s) materialises
Yesterday over 10m shares changed hands. Today, after 3 hours, it's 73,000 shares in 9 trades !! Markets sure are strange sometimes........
Another thing that AV alluded to in the interview, which will be why there's been so many parties interested in an offtake agreement for Andrada's lithium, is that they have a pre-built mine of some scale which is already producing lithium concentrate, albeit as a by-product at present.
For all the talk of lithium exploration and lithium mining, it takes years to get to where Andrada are today, admittedly somewhat by accident; which just goes to show, you can't beat being in the right place at the right time.
They've even got the fringe benefit of having thousands of tonnes of pre-crushed tailings with all the lithium still in it!
Andrada will be selling bulk lithium concentrate into what is forecast to be a demand-led lithium market in a couple of years time, primarily due to the fact that it's very expensive and takes so long to build large mining operations to the point of production - all of which Andrada already have.
The thing I felt this statement was saying is that for any future expansions they are almost self financing, which means any further raises required will be minimal which is good news in my view not bad, but I accept this wasn’t totally clear.
Plus let’s face it I don’t think anyone can say with any certainty what the tin and lithium price are going to be going forward, so that will obviously have a major impact. Currently both heading in the right direction and let’s hope that trend continues.
That is why they have a partner process on going!
And don't forget the Orion facility and the banks...
In the mean time they have $35m in the bank!