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Excellent Qtrly numbers and Kestrel very impressive and VB looking great for the future. Might there be a special divi after Q4 results which should be excellent ?
Analysts only predicting $56m of net sales for this year. They're going to be about $70m
Great numbers, the SP will rocket once this news is fully absorbed by the market
A very impressive trading update today from #APF
https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/q3-2021-trading-update-record-quarterly-portfolio-contribution/
I think that JT made the right call - especially with COP26 on the horizon - there will be an accelerated global decarbonisation for sure.
Dusty....you are right to highlight battery tech that can do without/with less cobalt as the new battery tech is moving towards the LFP (lithium,ferro,phodphate) and LMFP (including manganese) batteries. Advantage surrounds safety excluding nickel and cobalt but the downside is reduction in battery range. Would like to see AFP move in the copper and manganese spaces if lithium cannot be done.
1st time poster - long time holder albeit a small amount
I thought the RNS was bizarre, I like this company a lot but I feel they made a right c*ck up on this deal. I will be adding in the future as I like it as a 'low-risk' dividend play but another deal like that the company will have huge question marks over the BOD
Yes better off the books for sure and when else are you going to do it than in the middle of a huge run up in thermal coal prices. Though I agree the angling towards 'future' materials is probably the right thing, it does grate on me a bit how fully the apf management have jumped on the ESG bandwagon after only 6 years ago sinking $65m into a thermal coal royalty. I'm all for them investing in green stuff, but lets also make sure it's decently profitable over long timeframes. Obviously my comments on Narrabri are with the benefit of hindsight, though I think I am being honest in saying I would have preferred to see them to pick up more exposure to something like copper 6 yrs ago rather than more coal. Appreciate your views on Voiseys Bay.. I hope it does come good and battery tech that can do without/with less cobalt does not progress too quickly. So far demand seems to be growing decently.
Yeah I agree regarding foresight. The shift to a more ESG centric world has been ongoing for some time. That said, now that APF can point to this disposal it'll open up more doors with the bigger investment houses who have a mandate not to touch thermal coal. I think they've probably surprised themselves with a relatively successful disposal. Potential buyers would be few and far between vs when they acquired the royalty, so it isn't any wonder that it's the operator who has bought this back.
I have confidence in the Voiseys Bay deal. Wheaton (another of my holdings) was also involved in that deal, and has reported excellent progress from Vale at that operation. Wheatons due diligence is second to none, so APF did well to piggy back on that deal. One must be mindful though that Voiseys Bay makes up less than 2% of Wheatons portfolio - vs a much higher number for Anglo Pac, so that particular risk comparison is slightly skewed.
Must admit I'm disappointed by Julian stepping down. I think he's done a good job. He's a good capital allocator on the whole, and with the likes of Piaui and VB he leaves the company with a much more attractive portfolio going forward.
The kestrel royalty is what I like about apf, but looking at todays rns the Narrabri royalty aquisition looks like it has turned out to not be a very good deal? Aquired in 2015 for $65m(I was invested here when it was aquired, though have been in and out since), sold after 6yrs and (if we are lucky) total cash back from it will be $70m by 2026? Granted perhaps that is something that has to be accepted given the shift in what people want to invest in.. but it doesn't fill one with confidence ragarding foresight applied to aquisitions made more recently.
One wonders if a deal at a lower price that brought cash back quicker for reinvestment might have been prefereable.
"We are pleased to have completed the acquisition of the Narrabri royalty. The Acquisition will immediately enhance our portfolio of producing royalties and help to diversify our royalty cash flow through the addition of thermal coal exposure"
https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/6166c8e54e29f55a941937bb/anglo-pacific-update-on-the-narrabri-thermal-coal-royalty/
Excellent deal imv. Thermal coal exposure has been a drag on the portfolio for some time. This'll open up the opportunity for more ESG centric funds to look more closely at APF.
Looks like you're on for a relatively short term double with far more to come in the medium term to longer term. Well done. I posted here in error, Still APF have a royalty position of around 7% in uranium sector and some older holdings from an older transaction. I also like the coal, cobalt, copper and vanadium revenues here and added over the last few weeks.
In YCA @£2.10
Life changing gains will be made in this uranium sector over the next 2 to 3 years.
Heavy rains hit Shanxi in recent days, the country's biggest coal producing province, after record floods struck the mining region of Henan in July.
Thermal coal on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose as much as 8% on Tuesday.
Did I really say "toady" ? Well, I am seriously overweight in AP now, holding in both my ISA and share account, which I don't usually do. One in profit, one at a loss. Can only go two ways from here, but the dividends will be welcome.
@adv11: "Last chance to buy toady"
I already have a nice little stash of this. Tempted to buy some more, but the wider market is weak, so holding back some dry powder. Serious coal shortage in India and China has to bode well here.
Possibly down because of real estate issues in China? - I can't see APF being materially affected by it.
Last chance to buy toady for 3 dividends in 13 weeks. Amazed to see the price down, will certainly grab a few more.
I think this is an interesting scenario. They've already communicated that they're steadily moving away from coal, but they should see windfall profits from it, which could be incredible for paying down the debt and taking on more royalties.
Be interesting to know market price of Kestrel right now if APF is thinking of selling....
@ saintsforever - I would say that is very cautious on the Mt/month - (5,700,000Mt/12)*0.9 = 427,000Mt per month. Assuming the guidance of 5.7m Mt production for the year and the claim that 90% of mining would still be in the royalty area this year are both accurate.
With met coal where it is now(US$360/Mt), that's AU$493. Meaning a big chunk(most) of the income per Mt falls inside the higher rate of the royalty. However it's hard to get accurate with the calculations without knowing the haulage and handling costs(it needs to get from the mine to a ship by rail) and the average realised prices for any given period. But even if haulage is assumed at AU$100/Mt, the royalty will still be doing very nicely right now. Fingers crossed there are no disruptions to production!
Ordinary coal is up another 6% today. wow
A cautious estimate of 200,000 tons per month is covered by royalty due to apf would give apf close to $8.6m per month at $350 per tonne .