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Dividend in the last year was 9p.
I'm not sure that looking at an arbitary prior timespan neccasarily reflects the prospects of a company going forward. For the earlier half of 21 the commodities that apf is biased towards were not really in a bull market imo. I've held here for quite a while, and pretty happy with how I've done and the current outlook.
Met coal @ $360/t today.
a safe 7% is fantastic and a non-exec just bought £1.67m worth
Prescient is the word - there is a lot in the 'pipeline'
I'm struggling to see the outstanding merits of an investment in APF, tbh.
Yes, there is a dividend of circa 7p, gross, but for capital gains, every year, there are none, going back as far as 2017, unless you were a prescient market timer. In a commodity bull market like we had in 2021, isn't this a disappointment?
Hi CaneToad, q3 was an all time record quarter, but it won't be for long.. of that I'm fairly certain. Agree @ q4 paying at the highest rate at kestrel, but crucially it was also significantly above the highest rate threshhold for most of the quarter and still is now(you only get the 15% on the portion above the higher threshhold). We don't yet know how much was produced.. but assuming it was inline with expectations, happy days. One thing that worries me slightly is the possibility of steel production in china slowing what with winter olympics and covid.. but on the whole I can't see prices declining too much as things stand. I think this would be higher now if it were not for JT's selling.
I thought I heard JT say mid January in a recent interview. It could be the 14th or Monday 17th.
@dusty42: From what I can see, almost all of the Kestrel production should have been at 15% royalty for the past 6m.
Given that Kestrel makes the biggest contribution and that coal is rising again, this looks encouraging for the Q4 update. Surely they must be making record profits. Then there's Voisey's Bay, which is starting to become significant.
Anyone know date of Q4 update - hoping it will be super-strong.
Dusty.....many thanks for that fact sheet and this should be a real winner for APF over many years. Happy New Year all.
I'm not sure if you saw the link to an interview with the ceo Cacher posted earlier in december?
I believe they are targeting initial small scale commercial production for q2 22, with a bankable feasability study for the full scale operation due in q1 I think. This is only a link to the project info on their website but has mention at the bottom of the quick start:
https://www.braziliannickel.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Braz-Nick-A4-Sept-2021.pdf
Noted that Ni is well up in price. Haven't noticed any update on Apf Brazil project. Anybody have a link for current info on this?
Hi CaneToad, I've tried to calculate/estimate the numbers for the kestrel royalty in the past, it's difficult as it's not clear what prices are realised at the mine. We can see the FOB price but rail transport costs are a bit unknown. Suffice to say with regard to met coal, I'm fairly confident this q will see record income, assuming production quantities are inline with expectations. This royalty pays very well when prices are high.
Then there's the cobalt stream, short history.. but given where cobalt price have been and are now, this will also make a very decent contribution.
@ cherryburn - indeed, pretty happy with where prices are for the start of 2022.. and also hopefully some income from around May from Piaui.
JT: "I don't think the market understands yet how significant the rise in coking coal and cobalt prices are for the company," Treger said."
That's what Revenue Guidance is for... He shouldn't blame the market. Anyone able to make a stab at the implications? I expect it's not trivial as there's some gearing that comes into play.
Yes agree it's frustrating. Must admit I've added some shares recently given the cobalt, met coal performance and the lack of acknowledgement of that in the APF valuation. To a generalist investor, the CEO selling down his holding will always be a turn off. For me, it's provided an opportunity in a company that I think should outperform over the medium/long term.
I'm looking forward to seeing who comes in to fill JT's boots. I'm hopeful they'll be better at telling the story here - especially over in North America. I suspect we'll see a proliferation of diversified/battery metal/non-precious metals focused royalty companies come to market over coming years - just as we have in the precious metals royalty sector recently. I'd like APF to be that little bit better with their media efforts in today's modern world.
Cacher...also looking forward to 2022. I just wish that JT would finish selling what he intends rather than drip feeding into the market. A RNS in early 2022 stating that he has now reached his core holding level would be very welcome.
Same to you Albus. Have a great Christmas everyone. I think 2022 bodes very well for APF and for royalty companies in general. With operators wrestling with opex creep and developers feeling the inflationary hit In their capex projections it's a great time to be invested in royalty companies and sheltered from those cost over-runs.
Just received my divi cheque in the post - something special about a physical cheque rather than extra digits in the bank a/c - or am I just an old git?
Have held APF almost from inception - I think the divis must have paid for my original investment by now!
All the best for Xmas - I like your occasional posts-all the best for Xmas and 2022 and my biggest solid holding and also to you Cacher who guided us thru the pound shop days not all that long ago
Bodes well for Q1 next year Dusty. The 1.75p divi hit my ISA account this morning just before a "top up" trip to Majestic.
All you holders out there , enjoy the festive season.
Cobalt at $70500/t this morning.
Met coal still sitting at $336/t.
Another question for you Cacher(or anyone else).. Any idea what happened with the Groundhog royalty?
It was shown for a long time in th development royalties list for APF, but seems to have disapeared. Did they get rid of this? A quick scan of the rns list and I couldn't see any notification.
https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/royalty-update-groundhog-anthracite-project/
Run by Antrum:
https://businesschief.com/corporate-finance-2/why-atrum-coals-groundhog-anthracite-project-canada-so-profitable
Indeed on the 'old' royalties page(still hanging around), it's there.
https://www.anglopacificgroup.com/royalties-oldapril21/
Here's the presentation from yesterday afternoon. A particularly good Q&A session
https://youtu.be/6pwmVCqRgv8
Hang on, I've just clocked that I miss read your response. 90% again in 2022 would be awesome!
Thanks for the response Cacher. Yes I knew they were expecting 90% this year, but had no idea about 2022. To be honest 60% could/should still see it making a very healthy contribution to income at apf if prices stay anywhere near where they are now. My hope would be that that figure also be weighted toward the first half of the year.
Hi Dusty. From what I understand, 90% of 2022 production at kestrel will be on APF royalty land. That drops to 60% in 2023.