The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
The commodities chart (GNX) versus the S&P is very similar to ECORA and the S&P. After an initial failure a month or two back it looks as if ECOR has broken out but is still testing support. Furthermore, there's arguably a triple bottom, too. I think the rise over the next year or so may well surprise to the upside. The commodities sector looks as if it has bottomed and is tentively gaining strength as it is moving up.
The uranium equities are well placed to make outstanding gains against Sprott's Physical Uranium Trust. That'salso true of URNM (URNP), URA, URJ and GCL.
I like the BRAVE browser.
I posted the following on ADVFN on 2nd of January this year. Today represents a breakout from the ascending triangle for URNP.
"If URNP is in an ascending triangle, then the near to medium term target is £9.50, once URNP goes through 8.50 on volume. Though, I think beforehand we may go go sideways until the end of January."
I've been away from here from some time and I've just noticed your message.
I think you have a spread of really good companies and the dividends are worth having, especially from RIO. As far as what may happen next year. I don't know. I'm working on ideas by Simon Hunt ( See recent interviews on Youtube) that there could be a sell off across several sector in the first quarter of next year and then a strong rise between 12 fand 18 months across everything .But inflation will take off to around 10%. I'd imagagine that this scenario would be good for mining companies like RIO and commodities in most sectors. That's IF any of this comes to pass. But several interesting people think things get much harder after late 2025 as a recession - depression sets in for several years.
As far as URNP goes all of the EFTs are at their lowest point on ratio charts against the metals and the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust that holds the metal. URA, URNM, GCL and the junior mining ETF iln the states are at the lows with the metal - so the next leg up could well be spectacular when it gets going. One thing is certain - the uranium miners are nowhere where they could be given the rising Uranium price, so all that is yet to baked in! I'm holding and selling nothing in my ETFs and just waiting it out. The near producers and juniors have done nothing yet - so that's yet to come.
It's like that scene out of Gladiator where the General or whoever says, "HOLD" before the arrows are let loose!
Spot is around 80 to 81 Dollars but this only equates to $56 .50 in the 2008 value of the Dollar. This means that when we see $115.75 on Uranium this would be the equivalent of $80-1 in 2008 money. Something to think about when we look at uranium charts from the 2000s.
The price of copper depends on whether there is recession or even a depression next year. I'm not sure. I'd incline towards a four year low in the main markets by mid to the third quarter next year and it could be brutal. I'm thinking that things sail ahead until January or February. Elephant Capital on Twitter has an interesting take on RIO going towards 2026 in which he sees it going to well less than half in a capitulation sell off, say in the low A$60s. (https://twitter.com/ElephantCapita2/status/1726122906412056834/photo/1 Meanwhile plays like BHP and RIO do offer good dividends and are safe because they are mining whales digging out a wide range of metals.
But for what happens next year, it could be down to macro worldwide macro events. The shortage in uranium supply is real and set to grow. That doesn't mean uranium stocks couldn't see a short term washout with the main markets. All is in the lap of the Gods, so I cannot say as I do not know.
Good luck with your choices but it isn't a time to take chances on minnows.
That's good. Forgive me if you know much of what I wrote already but it might still come in handy for newish entrants into the sector. Yes, copper. I see Robert Friedland is bullish at present. If there is no downturn copper will take off. I'd stick with the big guns rather than smaller companies myself. No need taking unnecessary risks. Learned that lesson many times over LOL!
More directly, URNP's share price is tied to its holdings the Uranium sector. It is known in the US as URNM. The share price in the UK is a fraction of the US share price. ( I do not know why.)
The uranium stocks have not been outperforming the uranium Spot price since November 2021. If this changes then we can look forward to a good run up here.
Yellowcake are a well run company with experienced people heading . This is one of the safest options to play the Uranium bull market as they own "yellow cake" which is the yellow cake concentrate before it is fabricated and enriched to be used in Nuclear power plants, ect. They have a contract with Kazatomprom to supply them with a goodly amount of Yellow cake every year at a price discounted to the Spot Uranium Price. A good option.
I own some Yellow Cake indirectly through GCL and URNP as these investment vehicles are managed with a spread of holdings across the uranium sector. Have a look at the website as this explains what they do.
URNP is the London based version of URNP which is an ETF that has a spread of uranium companies, etc. at various percentages of ownership give the managers' preferences for setting their spread. It's a relatively safe way to play the sector. (That is, if there isn't a nuclear accident somewhere around the world that could cause a set back for the sector.)
In terms of ratios the charts point to URNM, URA, GCL, etc. as being at the lows compared with the Sprott Physical Trust which holds the metal itself. If there is to be a big move up this ratio will need to be reversed with URNM and its peers outperforming Uranium. The highs were in late 2021 with lower high in April 2022.
None of this is a recommendation, of course. But personally, I think we are still in the early days of the Uranium Bull Market. And if you do not want to spend time researching individual companies to try to get more torque, you could let the professionals do the work for you with URNP./URNP and relax, knowing the work has been done for you.
I hope this helps. Have a look @Quakess99 on Twitter as a good starting point for doing more research on the Uranium Sector. The Professor is retired and spends his time offering encylopedic advice on X. But do some research first. There is no rush.
I'd be surprised if drilling on Canje does not begin by the end of the second quarter next year. WTE's directors think this is a possiblity and the window for drilling ends in 2027. Ratio Petroleum are in talks with oil companies over drilling the Kaietaur block. Results due soon from Nigeria. It seems all to play for. Just as before, patience required.
There's likely a little more to Exxon and Hess pulling out of Kaieteur than one might think and it does not necessarily have much to do with prospectivity in finding oil. The likelihood of (more) oil being found on this block is high. As Hamlet says: "There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy".
Yes, but there is another way of reading this: Exxon intend going ahead with their drilling campaign in the Canje Block. Ratio Guyana are alreading in talks with other majjors over Kaieteur. Who knows khow the latter will work out.
Https://greeninvesting.co/2023/09/russians-enter-global-uranium-spot-market-as-supply-crisis-hits/
It seems the Russians have run short of U308 to make enriched uranium. What a develpment!