The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Looks very solid. Record quarter/year, with strong outlook for cobalt and coking coal.
@ CT nah it's still good to know and tbf direct income from thermal coal only stopped about 20 days ago. Plus it's price has a real bearing on how much money we get back from the Narrabri royalty. And these prices clearly do not exist in a bubble - very high thermal coal has got to have some affect on met coal. And yes it primarily met coal and cobalt at the moment, but could see nickle become a decent contributor in the next 6-12-18 months. Copper, I wish they had more tbh. Be great if the mine in peru listed in the early stage stuff atually got built. I value your posts on caml/atym, here.. keep it up.
@dusty: You're right. Ignore my ignorance. I didn't appreciate the difference. Looks good for Cobalt, Met Coal and Copper, which to me, looks like most of the portfolio.
Good news given the terms of the divestment of Narrabri, but afaik we don't have direct exposure to thermal coal any more. I guess may also have some influence on higher quality coal prices.
That said, met coal now @ a crazy $432/t
And cobalt up $1500/t to $72000/t
Bloomberg: "At least one cargo of Australian coal for February loading changed hands at $300 a metric ton on Friday, according to traders who saw the transactions on the globalCOAL platform. That’s one of the most expensive cargoes ever transacted, the traders said, and could push spot price indexes above last October’s record high."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-21/coal-soars-to-300-a-ton-as-asia-scrambles-for-power-plant-fuel
Good news for APF.
RBC Raises APF Price Target To 240 Outperform.
Given the kestrel output and net coal price my bet is that q4 is very close to rest of year combined. Q4 trading update next week I think so get ready for a blockbuster.
Met coal @ $430/t will be something to do with it. I've never seen prices so high. But hope kestrel has not suffered any weather related disruption.
Beyond that, probably just general anticipation of a very good last quarter. Far too early to start saying this q could be another record.. I'll wait at least until the end of january for that!
wish I'd added more in the summer any idea about why the rise - just general sentiment or is there a particular driver?
Today
SP humming along nicely - any bets when we will smash through 150?
Ignore me, the article I was looking at was out of date I think, so no evidence kestrel is affected at the moment.
Seems there is a record high met coal price at $415/t, but unfortunately due to disruption at mines in north america and austrailia. I think kestrel has been evacuated due to heavy rain. Though not sure if it has affetced the actual mine or just access routes and the evacuation just a precaution. I guess that if they can get back to mining relatively soon the boost to prices could make the situation a net positive.
I am increasingly concerned that the Board is going to mess up the replacement for JT. He has done such a good job creating our new APF but they have had 6 months to find someone new with no success.
Has anyone heard anything?
My guess at the average FOB price in q4 would slightly more conservative, somewhere in the range of $300-$350. But yes, I agree that the SP is not reflecting the change in outlook since mid year. In fact in h1 the SP was higher at times.
@adv11, no worries.. I just didn't want to misinform. So far as I can remember it came up as a question at the end of the recent interview they put out.
I think the diminishing returns from Kestrel will be MORE than compensated for by the streams from VB cobalt etc. Becoming a purely 'green metal' royalty company may well push-up the SP in the future.
Thanks @dusty42. Just wondered if anyone knew without wanting to put you to any trouble.
I’m struggling to see how APF isn’t considered hugely undervalued. CEO has said Q3 Kestrel prices averaged $210, or thereabouts, whilst Q4 have been around $350 per tonne. Given that that additional revenue is at the 15% royalty rate and tonnage was broadly similar at around 500,000 per month its hugely difficult to see how Q4 can’t be anything other than a bonanza.
Add to that steadily increasing cobalt price the only cloud I can see is how long kestrel will last. I think I read somewhere that they were moving away from APF royalty lands in early 2023, recent years output has been around 90% on APF royalty land.
Not that I am aware of. It was due to the cobalt stream aquisition last year.. I think they said they expected the schedule to be normalised this year(I think it was in some recent interview, but don't have time to look now).
is there any reason to expect a delayed final dividend again ?
So 2021 started slowly here, modest h1 portfolio income of £16.2m. But then q3 was pretty nice(a record) with income at $23.6m(or £17.3m at todays rate). Based on relevant commodity prices during q4, assuming production was inline with expectations.. seems to me we've a very good chance of beating q3. So first 3 quarters bought in £33.5m, my guess q4 might be in the £20-25m range. So that'd see the year at £53.5-58.5m, just short of the 2019 record of £59.5m.. that said - quite possible I am underestimating kestrel! So not impossible that record could get broken.
And met coal now @ $408/t is a _very_ nice start to 2022.
Hmmm. If one cannot see the merit in an investment into a battery metal focused royalty company that's largely sheltered from the huge inflationary pressures that operators/developers are struggling with in this space then maybe the space isn't for them. Capex and opex numbers are going through the roof for most miners or wannabe miners.
Appreciate that APF has lagged somewhat - but there's obvious reasons for that if one was to do an inch of due diligence. Royalty companies will outperform over the longer term. The last decade was a rapid growth story for the precious metals royalty players, and now it'll be the time for the diversified focused co's to shine.
Olderandwiser....... Have a word with Berenberg who has just increased their target price to 180. You might become even wiser.
JT a participant in this interesting panel discussion:
https://youtu.be/Rj-s4z59Wsg