Member Info for Cacher

Research note from Atrium Research.

Target price C$4.00

https://mcusercontent.com/4bc421505c66d079778a0d0be/files/afc39e96-90fe-17ea-4187-3d9b23e23325/20260429_Atrium_ECOR_Q1_Trading_Update.pdf

Hey Albus.

I've been in and out, but yes I'm in again. Have to take a long term view here, but discount to NAV and the pipeline potential is compelling.

S32 saw it as a way to monetise some of the royalties they'd acquired on various projects. They don't get any value for them as part of their own portfolio, so much better to have equity in a wider royalty and streaming vehicle. As you say though, it's interesting they increased their position. The post-transaction lock up period expired a long time ago, so the fact they're increasing their stake rather than selling it down speaks volumes of the potential here

Big win for ICEYE

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/iceye-to-provide-sar-satellites-for-the-armed-forces-of-poland-302455109.html

"ICEYE, the global leader in Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite operations, today signed an agreement with the Ministry of National Defense of the Republic of Poland to deliver the Polish Armed Forces with an initial batch of three ICEYE SAR satellites, and an option to purchase three more satellites and additional ground segment capabilities in the next 12 months, under the Polish Armed Forces' MikroSAR program. As part of the agreement, ICEYE will also partner with local industry to provide the Polish Armed Forces with a mobile Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) platform that provides near real-time tasking, data downloads, and analysis. The total value of the agreement is approximately €200 million..."

Here's the YouTube version:

https://youtu.be/T21VbyHVthw?si=U-OjGEZz8zSUI73v

I thought the Money Makers podcast over the weekend was very compelling. Well worth a listen

It's terrible news. Very little to fill the gap when Kestrel drops off shortly. WM now indeterminate, Santo Domingo is high cost and challenging for Capstone. The news there will be key. Piaui will help, but that's still 2027/28 most likely.

I suspect that management have concerns over whether TP will be a success. Show me a successful low cost clay operation producing lithium at scale. Adam and team know that extrapolated revenues from TP are far from a slam dunk, and are cashing in their chips.

Pretty standard to sell exercised options on the North American markets. I see it a lot with many of the other royalty co's I follow. MBL's and KF's shareholdings remain the same as prior to the options exercise

Recording of today's PGM seminar available on the JMAT website

https://matthey.com/investors

I signed up, but the day got away from me. How was it?

Indeed. Pleasing to see...

Very disappointing offer. Far too low, and I'm surprised the board are so fervently in favour of it, given the potential here with TP etc.

Yes, they alluded to that in the full year results at the end of March.

ECOR has always been somewhat of an outlier, as their dividend yield has been far higher than the average in the royalty and streaming sector for quite some time. I'm not surprised they want to reduce the burden - but from an investors point of view it only makes Ecora less attractive. If the board can demonstrate some shrewd acquisitions and a clear growth strategy then that would go some way to alleviating that, but so far that isn't the case.

Re Sam's point on the comparison to Trident. I do agree to a large extent. I see no reason why Ecora can't pick up smaller and/or earlier stage royalties - similar to what Trident are. Again, MBL seems to believe that ECOR are above that...

As most long termers here know, I was pretty disappointed with the choice of MBL to replace Julian, and it's the main reason I only hold a fraction of what I've had previously here. I'm hopeful that the assets will finally start to do the talking, but for me - trust in the management is an absolutely essential pillar in my investment decisions, and I just don't have faith in the Ecora team. MBL's attitude that the job is seemingly done and all we need to do is wait really grates on me.

The counterparty is important, as the royalty holder will want to see the asset progress. If the developer is constantly cash strapped then it's inevitably slow going. An experienced, well capitalised operator is the ideal counterparty.

The other issue is graphite isn't priced on a recognised international exchange. Adam has said in the past that the pricing for copper, gold, silver etc is transparent. Commodities such as graphite are more opaque in comparison

Agreed MS. Threats of nationalisation very rarely end up as such. Yes, weve occasionally seen it happen, but more often than not the government (in this case the Mali Gov) realise that the mining industry and exploitation of their natural resources (funded by foreign capital) is too important to the national economy, and simply choose to take a slightly bigger slice of the pie than before. Its a story that we've seen play out across South American nations and now in Africa.

Thought that was good news regarding Anson today.

Unfortunately if you strip out Kestrel then this looks absolutely dire. BHP putting West Musgrave development on hold makes it more imperative than ever that ECOR spend some money to fill the gap when Kestrel runs off in the next 12-18 months.

No link to HZM.

Years ago, APF/ECOR did have an option to purchase an NSR on Araguaia, but we let that option expire.