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What am I missing here? 7.5% down on those strong results?! Valued at almost 5 pe. Maybe the debt? Successful VW claim and this could double in a day
Most exciting piece of news out of ANX for a long as they push back results a day for the coronation so building even higher levels of anticipation.
Wow.
Personally, I think VW and Mercedes should be made to pay additional punitive damages and penalties. They settled in the US years ago and are just trying to play the system here in the UK and delay paying out. They should be forced to fund a UK advertising campaign - "vorsprung durch schummeln" ;-)
A good update overall as long as PBT comes out at the top of the projected range, as nearer the lower £24m would be a fair miss. Given that the year end was over three months ago it seems to have taken a long time to only arrive at a relatively wide range of PBT expectations?
The business as a whole is performing well, with all divisions performing soundly. And net debt is slightly better than expectations.
The news of the Mercedes case is encouraging and could provide a second major windfall on top of VW, which is mooted to settle soon.
With say 17p-18p EPS ANX looks very good value at these levels, even with the debt which is forecast to begin declining from here as housing disrepair revenue share increases and the focus on cash collection bears fruit.
Debt hole deeper.
Interesting to finally see some discussion here!
Completely agree that VK is not key part of investment case….but find it very hard to believe they will not get a settlement after therium case last year…really not sure what could drive a market. Belief they will lose??? Thoughts?
Even without the VW case which presumably there's zero update about in 2022 nor in Q1 2023 (despite the court case in "early 2023") otherwise there would have been an RNS to update on this market moving news.
The underlying profitability 2023 EPS of 20p (PE of 5.3), positive £11.7m 2023 FCF and the estimated 2023 NAV/share of 144.8p (~35% above market price) is not baked into the price.
A VW settlement only adds about 10% profit so drops another 2p-3p earnings per share straight to the bottom line. It's a welcome addition but this share isn't an all or nothing bet. Plus there's plenty more emissions cases to pursue.
Only explanation I can think for the current doldrums is that the market is assuming annexo will lose the case. There were £5.8m accrued costs relating to emissions H1 2022 so perhaps £7.5m now? A loss would send that £7.5m to the bottom line and reduce profits by 25% for 2023 plus put the logic of pursuing further cases in doubt. I do not believe this will happen but if you separate out the legal emissions cases the rest of the business feels undervalued.
The lack of news and engagement is an issue but the numbers are the numbers. The brief and understated "trading in line" doesn't wax lyrical that's true, however anyone who analyses the past performance and trajectory can see that "in line" is flipping good!
Anyway, yes, Tuesday should be good reading.
GLA
Should be good reading.
we must be getting very close to a VW settlement now....the effects of which would be truly transformational...and it is still being completely missed by the market!!!
This is a quiet board for a share that seems so disconnected from fair value.....
Do people have a view on the Volkswagen settlement and if there is any probability it won't come through? Feels very much like a done deal given they were found against last year for the same case that was brought...just feel like time is now dragging on a lot?
Either way, interesting that all broker forecasts don't even account for the settlement and we are still way way off fair value.
I note yesterday's offer at Kape technologies to be taken private.
The offer represents a 12% upside to the previous days close but a shocking £1.50 a share below the £4.44 kape was trading at less than a year ago.
Can't blame the major shareholder for taking advantage of a mispriced opportunity and can't see the (generally upset) small Private Investor base finding a way of stopping him.
I know many on here are also invested in Kape and view the recent TU here as a precursor to being taken out. Careful what you wish for eh? Similar percentages would represent a take out price around 130p here, 20p below where we were less than a year ago & well below true value.
I sold most of my holding here after the lacklustre TU two weeks ago but I retain an interest both here and at Kape.
The above also goes for Centralnic where again some of the cheerleaders here are also invested, as I am, in a much more committed way.
I was expecting the VW case resolution by January. Perhaps, the management delayed the TU in anticipation of a last minute settlement from VW.
Assuming DBay plus all the Directors voted in have of taking ANX private they'd have 66.84%. They'd need 8.16% out of 33.16% remaining to pass the resolution.
So 25% of the remainder.
Given ANX has been trading higher 50% higher than today I think it's unlikely either PIs and IIs would vote for ACP of 36 sessions. But if DBAY repeated their 150p take out offer I could see that potentially passing, can't you?
GLA
A strange TU with so little to go on there has to be a reason. They just can't be a*s*d with the market and only one reason for that attitude I can think of is they intend to come off market.
An offer based on the average closing price of the last 36 sessions or something?
DBAY?
Rivaldo,
Corresponding statement from full year 2021 trading update 12 months ago
"The Board is pleased to announce that revenue growth has exceeded the Group's forecasts and that profit before tax will be significantly ahead of market expectations." Incidentally, the catalyst for my investment here.
Not, simply, "in line with expectations " as of this morning.
Given that we were so far in front of 2021 at the 2022 half year (EPs 9.3p v 6.1p, + 52.5%) and that full year eps 2021 were 16.8p, this indicates ANX trading below 2021 for 2022. Not "nicely" in my book.
Also no mention whatsoever of housing disrepairs or vehicle emissions, the two big growth opportunity areas that, hopefully, were to push profits further ahead moving forwards and are the reason many are invested here.
Having just come out of Immo where a paucity of information was due to a subsequent PE/management buyout I wonder if its the same here? The TU was 1-2weeks later than usual and hilst anx's past TU have not been verbose they had a little more information
Glad to see confirmation that trading for 2022 was nicely in line with expectations.
That equates to consensus 18.5p EPS - a historic P/E of just 6.2.
Probably the least informative trading update I've come across. PR dept need a rocket up their .... Can only expect this to drift for another 8 weeks. Disappointing.
Also onboard, there is a lot to be said for companies where the directors are major holders.
Yep - obvious forthcoming favourable outcome for Anexo being missed by the market. This share is so so so undervalued
Encouraging to see that at the end of 2022 in Scotland VW paid £11.9m in relation to 7,800 claimants, i.e £1,525 per case.
Hopefully ANX's case against VW will also come to a conclusion soon:
Https://joneswhyte.co.uk/media-centre/blog/__trashed/
"In Volkswagen’s view, the legal costs of litigating this case to trial in Scotland, and then in relation to any further appeals by either party, were such that settlement was the most prudent course of action commercially.
The agreed settlement resolves circa 7,800 claims that were being brought against various Volkswagen Group entities in that group action in Scotland. These claims were brought on behalf of consumers by the law firms Thompsons Scotland, Slater & Gordon,?Lefevres, Drummond Miller, and Jones Whyte. "
Hey Trendz.
Yes I liked the holdings too. I also liked the p/e ratio, the growth over the last few years and the fact they could see some bumper wins from the likes of VW claims.
This may go to 100 again but I will buy that. Its far to low. I have also just read the company was in IC for possible take over target. Lots of possibilities here.
Suspect *
I’m also on board, suspend the exec directors (with monster holdings) will hold out for £2 before selling up. Interesting to see that DBAY also hold 29% (just below the takeover level) despite their failed attempt to buy the company in the summer of 2021.
Interesting times and clearly way undervalued…
Thought I would say hello. Very compelling investment here with little down risk.
Just couldn't say no. Look forward to the continued story and later discussions.