Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
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A precedent has been set.
Oh well, have to wait a bit longer then....
RNS:
"Anexo is involved in a separate class action which covers a second, although not subordinate tranche of claims against VW on similar grounds"
I refer you to http://bondturner.com/services/diesel-emissions-claims/vw-emissions/ "How much will it cost me to claim"..."You should however still receive 50%".
Implies Anexo/Bond Turner gets 50%
Anexo represent approx 13,000 claimants. Going by that report, each claimant is entitled to around £2120 so Anexo's claim is worth around £27.5m. Not sure Anexo have reported what % cut they will receive but I would hope around 33%, so approx 9m.
It appears that VW has settled British dieselgate claims which as per previous posts here on 13.5 should could have positive repercussions https://english.alarabiya.net/business/banking-and-finance/2022/05/25/Dieselgate-Volkswagen-settles-UK-emissions-class-action-for-193-million
What do you make of the current corporate action and the potential of de-listing? Surely this is the reason that the stock has dropped from its prior 135p-140p range? Its latest trading update and ST article did nothing to move the needle here - surprisingly. Is DBAY behind this?
Took a wee punt here today after my 120p alert was triggered. Just in time for the small dividend on 19th.
Continued:
"Investment in new cases explains why year-end net debt increased by half to £63mn, or two times current year operating profit estimates, despite cash collections rising by a fifth to £119mn. The group's post-tax return of 16.5 per cent on equity warrantsthe investment.
Interestingly, Anexo has been tapping new income streams, having invested £1.7mn in 2,000 cases last year for tenants makingclaims against landlords under The Homes(Fitness for Human Habitation) Act 2019.The Act came into force to make sure thatrented houses and flats are fit for humanhabitation. The unit delivered a tenth(£2.5mn) of group pre-tax profit, havingsettled a quarter of those cases with 1,500still ongoing. Investment in new housingclaims will be doubled this year, a sensible decision given the bumper profits to be made and the short working capital cycle tosettlement.
Anexo is also starting to actively sourceclaims against Mercedes Benz in relation tothe German group’s emission scandal.Sellers says that the market could be doublethat of VW, another positive for windfallgains. Analysts expect Anexo’s claim againstGerman carmaker Volkswagen on behalf of13,000 motorists (who suffered in theemissions scandal) to reach settlement wellbefore the year-end. Anexo couldpotentially earn £16mn of operating profitwhen these cases are settled, a hefty returnon its £4.5mn investment to date. This isnot embedded in Panmure’s current yearforecasts which point to group pre-taxprofit and earnings per share (EPS) rising afifth to £29mn and 19.9p, respectively, onsix per cent higher revenue of £125mn. Postresults, the brokerage also raised their 2023EPS forecast again by a further 10 per centto 22.6p.
On this basis, the shares are rated on acurrent year forward price/earnings (PE)ratio of 6.5, offer a prospective dividendyield of 1.4 per cent and are priced in linewith year-end net tangible asset estimatesof 129p a share. A cash windfall fromsettlement of the VW claims would not onlydeleverage Anexo’s balance sheet, but is anobvious catalyst for an overdue re-rating.Buy"
in the IC as follows:
"Bargain Shares: Priced to motor
Business is buoyant for a vehicle credit hire and legal services group and it could be in line for a windfall gain, too. That’s certainly not reflected in a current year PE ratio of 6.5.
May 11, 2022
By Simon Thompson
2021 pre-tax profit up 50 per cent to £24.1mn on 36 per cent higher revenue of £118mn
Cash from case settlements recycled into new claims to support ongoing growth
Potential for bumper windfall on emissions scandal claim against German carmaker Volkswagen
Analyst earnings upgrades post results
Liverpool-based Anexo (ANX:130p), a provider of a complete litigationclaims process focused on the recovery of credit hire and repair costs fo rthe impecunious non-fault motorist involved in a road traffic accident, has delivered a better than expected earnings recovery than I had anticipated when I included the shares, at 136.9p, in my market beating 2021 Bargain Shares 2021 Portfolio.
In fact, following a robust pre-close trading update in January, Panmure Gordon pushedthrough 11 per cent plus earnings per share(EPS) upgrades for the 2021 to 2023forecast period. More importantly, thestrong momentum shows no sign of abating.In fact, chairman Alan Sellers says theopportunities within the group’s credit hiredivision “have never been so strong”, andthat’s after the average number of vehiclesout for hire increased by a fifth to 1,834 lastyear. Currently, around 2,000 vehicles inthe fleet are being hired out.
The withdrawal of several competitors fromthe market and the introduction of the CivilLiabilities Act, which severely curtails the ability of personal injury solicitors torecover substantial legal costs, has certainlyplayed into Anexo’s hands. Moreover, byoffering both credit hire and legal services,Anexo is exploiting a competitive advantageover pure credit hire companies (who lackthe in-house capacity to litigate acustomer’s claim), and solicitors (who lacka vehicle fleet to offer to motorists).
True, a decline in road usage during national lockdowns still had an impact, but less so on Anexo given that a large numberof credit hire customers are classed as keyworkers, including couriers (who have beenextremely active throughout the pandemic)as well as health professionals, teachers,nursery staff, emergency workers andsupermarket personnel. In fact, despite thelockdown in the first half of 2021, Anexo’scredit hire division provided vehicles to10,625 individuals, a 36 per cent year-on-year increase.The group’s focus on motorcycle credit hire is worth noting, too. That’s because take-on costs are significantly less than for cars, but claims have a similar value, a positive for the working capital cycle and return on investment. Statistics show that motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable to personal injury in non-fault accidents."
Don't worry, with a 28.51% stake and Booard representation I'm pretty sure DBAY will be coming along with another bid at some stage if the share price continues to fail to reflect ANX's progress......
... and, as always, the market ignores because of the ongoing concern about cash, recoverable debts and transparency ;-)
I am holder but am often left to wonder why ;-)
And here's Progressive Equity's new summary FYI:
Https://progressive-research.com/company/anexo-group-plc/
"FY22E – Our revenue forecast is increased by 5% to £132.4m, reflecting the benefits of investment made in FY21 across all businesses. The expenses forecast is increased by 8% to £60.7m, reflecting a higher FY21 cost base and continued investment in FY22. As a result, operating profit and adjusted operating profit are increased by 7% to £32.1m and £32.8m, respectively. Profit before tax and adjusted profit before tax (before share-based payments) are broadly unchanged, reflecting increased finance costs, attributable to the levels of net debt discussed above.
Reported and adjusted EPS are maintained at 19.1p and 19.7p, respectively.
FY23E – New estimates for 2023 assume an 9% revenue increase and 4% administrative
expenses growth, resulting in 15% operating profit and adjusted operating profit growth compared with FY22. Higher finance costs attributable to higher net debt levels slightly temper profit before tax (reported and adjusted) growth rates to 13% in FY23. We forecast reported and adjusted EPS of 21.7p and 22.3p, respectively, 13% above FY22."
Arden today reiterate thier Buy and 280p target price following the excellent results.
They see 18.3p EPS this year and 20.1p EPS next year, with 1.6p and 1.8p dividends.
They summarise:
"Stronger than expected results:
Trading was robust last year, with FY21 group revenues +36.2% to £118.2mn. Anexo had guided in January that pre-tax profits would significantly exceed market expectations and adj. PBT of £24.1mn for the full year was +49.7% y/y, broadly in line with our revised forecast. This was even after significant investment across the group, which together with a favourable market backdrop, under-pins our FY22 forecasts, with an upward bias to FY23. Finally, we continue to expect Volkswagen AG to negotiate a settlement before the scheduled court hearing in January 2023. Reiterate Buy."
Progressive have today increased their operating profit forecast for 2022 by 7%.
They also now have an EPS forecast of 19.7p EPS, rising to 22.3p EPS next year.
Arden's last target price was 280p, so still a long way to go.
Debt.
Agreed - the resultslook excellent, being in line with previously upgraded forecasts.
The 16.8p EPS is bang in line with Progressive's forecasts, as is the £23.8m reported PBT. The 1.5p divi is slightly less than the 1.7p forecast, which I assume is due to the increased debt in turn resulting from the big investment in the various new and old divisions which took advantage of competitors' problems during Covid.
The outlook is confident, supported by the KPI's re cars on the road, number of fee earners etc, and targeting improved working capital with efficiencies in numbers of vehicles.
The VW Dieselgate case may well conclude this year bringing in a big lump sum, and it's good to see ANX initiating a similar case against Mercedes-Benz.
The forecast for this year is for 19.2p EPS, which makes ANX look absurdly good value.
PBT up over 50% from £15m to over £23m.
Seems a bargain at current its price. Hidden value in the VW and Mercedes case. The housing claims unit is already doing well too.
Arden have released a replacement research note. They retain their 280p target price and 19.3p EPS forecast this year - a P/E of just 7.1 - here's their summary:
Https://research.arden-partners.com/portal/portal.html
"Buy
Target Price: 280p
Trading Statement – Improvement and Opportunity
Continuing improvement –
Anexo has released a pre-close statement ahead of final 2021 results on 11 May 2022. With current trading in line with management’s expectations, recovery in Bond Turner and industry dislocation playing to Anexo’s strategy and capabilities, we believe the group has re-entered a strong growth trajectory which will deliver excellent shareholder returns over time. Reiterate buy.
Increasing focus on quality in credit hire – the successful launch of the MCE referral contract in November 2021 provides Anexo with the scope to be more targeted in the cases it takes on, driving more efficient use of capital and higher margins and should enable quicker recycling of funding through the business. In our view, the market has yet to fully understand the positive impact of this on Anexo.
Legal processing accelerating – The re-opening of the court system supports accelerating cash collections at Bond Turner for reinvestment in credit hire and housing disrepair. Cash collections have been rising and reflect the substantial capability Anexo has built in its legal settlement capacity. In Housing Disrepair, growth remains strong and will further benefit from marketing through 2022.
Further growth funding secured – Anexo has secured further debt funding for growth, which combined with more efficient capital use and faster cash collections, provides excellent headroom for the Group to continue to expand across its various business lines. The MCE contract provides validation of the Group’s strategy and market position and gives visibility of a referral stream to provide lenders comfort over the growth potential in the business and demonstrates the demand from lenders to put capital to work in Anexo’s business.
Investment thesis and valuation - We have argued for over a year that Anexo was in prime position to take significant share in credit hire and become an integral part of the insurance claims processing industry. With strong momentum across all businesses, we swee further share gains and likely upward pressure to our 2022 forecasts. At only 7.1x 2022E P/E on our forecasts, the shares are excellent value in our view considering the market position of the Group. Buy."
Arden reiterate today their Buy and 280p target price.
Progressive Equity Research have issued an update note this morning.
They forecast 19.2p EPS this year, so almost exactly the same as Finncap, for a P/E of only 7.1.
In summary:
"Confident trading update and increased debt facilities
Following a strong January trading update and forecast upgrades, Anexo has issued a confident trading statement ahead of its 2021 full-year results announcement on 11 May."
Very happy with today's year end trading statement, with trading nicely in line with previously upgraded expectations.
Which means historic 16.8p EPS (up from 11.4p EPS in 2020).
For the current year, Arden forecast 19.3p EPS, so ANX are now on a P/E of just 7.1.
Importantly, cash collections and settlements have improved - and new increased loan facilities and litigation funding has been obtained, showing management's ambition and the confidence of the banks in ANX.
All divisions are trading well and have good growth potential, as outlined above.
Plus there's the kicker of the large VW case settlement receipt coming into view hopefully this year.
All looking good imho:
Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/anexo-ANX/share-news/Anexo-Group-PLC-Pre-Close-Trading-Statement/87777377
I've been a bit behind the curve here, and only just had the realisation that ANX's McAms subsidiary covers not just motorcycles for leisure, couriers etc, but also food delivery bikes (Yamaha 125s for example) and scooters.
No wonder this division has been growing so fast given the rise of Deliveroo, Uber Eats, Just Eat etc. Particularly as most of these drivers are such a menace zipping in and out oand between cars and must have loads of accidents.
I may have to rethink my price targets upwards :o))
This is from the Shares Magazine event in February 2022:
Https://youtu.be/cd3jr8NhvhE
It's a good watch. Fingers crossed for a VW settlement this summer which would bring in a very material sum indeed.
On top of which ANX could go after all the other motor manufacturers named in the video.
Meanwhile there should be a run-up in the share price prior to the results on 11th May given the "significantly ahead" update on 18th January.
With 19.9p EPS forecast for this year, at 130p ANX are now on a current year P/E of just 6.5. Bonkers imo.
The chart certainly looks set for a bounce from these levels judging by the usual price action.
ANX were recently tipped in the IC as follows FYI:
"Anexo (ANX)
Aim: Share price: 149p
Market value: £174mn
Website: www.anexo-group.com
Liverpool-based Anexo (ANX) is a provider of a complete litigation claims process focused on the recovery of credit hire and repair costs for the impecunious non-fault motorist involved in a road traffic accident. By offering both credit hire and legal services, Anexo has a competitive advantage over pure credit hire companies (who lack the in-house capacity to litigate a customer’s claim), and solicitors (who lack a vehicle fleet to offer to motorists).
The business has recovered strongly after taking a hit in 2020 when normal working practices for lawyers and law courts were impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic, and the spike in home working subdued road usage. Inevitably, this had effect on the ability of Anexo’s staff to agree settlements with counterparties which subdued cash collection rates.
However, the company is now motoring. A pre-close trading update revealed that both divisions are trading well ahead of previous expectations, buoyed by a sustained recovery in Anexo’s core credit hire division (driven by growth in motorcycle courier market and the withdrawal of rivals from the market), and the reopening of courts, which has enabled faster settlement of claims. In fact, analysts at Panmure Gordon pushed through low double-digit EPS upgrades of 16.7p, 19.9p and 20.6p for the 2021 to 2023 financial years.
Furthermore, those earnings upgrades exclude any contribution from Anexo’s investment in a claim on behalf of 15,000 claimants against German carmaker Volkswagen (VW) in relation to the emissions scandal. It could generate £16mn of operating profit for Anexo, and perhaps sooner than many realise. That's because The High Court in London ruled that VW's attempt to strike out the deceit element of the claims against it to be without merit. VW has already agreed a settlement with those affected by its actions in many other jurisdictions. It’s worth pointing out that Anexo is “investigating the pursuit of similar claims against other manufacturers which have potential to be of significant value to claimants and to the company".
Admittedly, Anexo’s share price has only made modest progress since I highlighted the investment potential despite the hefty earnings upgrades. However, on a 2022 forward PE ratio of 7.4 and underpinned by a near 2 per cent dividend yield, the earnings upgrade cycle is being woefully underrated. Buy."