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JTD I agree ONGC have not tendered for a strategic planning for CPO5 buy out so it’s unlikely lol
I don't agree with the assertion that ONGC have some sort of master plan to take over CPO-5, I think they are generally incompetent and may well be dragging their heels now to the nth degree to help keep a lid on any sale price of Amerisur's share but it was never a master plan, equally it may simply be a continuation of their institutional behaviour and have found some new area of bureaucracy to delay things. Perhaps they forgot to order tea bags!
However, if we fallows the logic of that theory, then the reason for basically sabotaging progress can only be to facilitate a lower price for themselves of an associate (Geo Park maybe).
That is in fact "sort of" good news as we then have an alternative bidder that must beat the price offered by out other confirmed bidder M&P. I doubted ONGC's interest but perhaps I've underestimated their expansion aspirations.
I get the sense that ONGCs tactics might have been formed by the backlash they got to the price paid for Peter Levine’s Russian venture. Would serve them right if this miss out here and gain bigger backlash.
IMO - This process was caused by ONGC and its solution will be achieved by dealing directly with ONGC, i.e the bid process. One advantage Amer has is the private equity option - of last resort backing - at a price no doubt but not held to ransom as ONGC would dictate, by deliberately under developing the CPO 5 field a ' Prorogue - joke - of commercial justice FFS. In an auction you can expect GTE to swallow Coati & Put 30 with a 4% X Factor for a fair price - synergy, OXY to take the 50% of 1.2m acres and CPO5 up for grabs. Anything left to the highest bidder. All contestants understand, the failure to make the reserve price Private Equity gets stuck in, so preserving some kind of Supreme Court check on the perfidious ONGC FFS, Tiss all possible as Amer are Cash Generative and require no short term funding at $46 in bank, so NO DISTRESSED SALE
So - IMO DYOR there is no rush, all parties negotiate their positions and IMO DYOR we have a smooth border back stop with the OBA. Personally, I think if the numbers fall in line - we sort out the Fecking Injuns and grab control of our company back. Unfortunately, the huge success of Indico 1 now - as stated earlier has become a short term horror show than a blessing. If our partner were upstanding partner - which our BOD can't comment on , a joint co-op field investment plan would have delivered expectations of 25kbopd, instead, smash that and pick up the 30% on the cheap, smash and grab repeated tactics.
BOD had no choice, the tail wagged the dog. Not for too long, either we eat the dog or lose our tail for a good sum. Amer has been 'dogged with issues since M! success FFS 2016- this time its the adverse effect of exploratory success, utilising Co-ersive control on investors expectations. I like the fact this is drawn out - AS IT EXPOSES ONGC lack of development as - quote Boris type - Stymied Amerisur business plan. HNY Time will in reality benefit Amer - Why:
1. Prove ONGC - lack of CPO5 action a despicable 4
2. Allows GTE Geopark et c More time to adjust funding options to bid
3. Allows Michinko time to evaluate a Reserve bid position
4.Develop more data on all blocks for development purposes
5. Negotiate 3 rd party Oil through OBA
GLA GN
What’s going on !!!
If you are a shareholder Chris then sell, impatience is certainly not a virtue when dealing in shares!!
This share is a joke .
I identify a lot with that post Gary o' Brien. Thanks.
(And I'm happy to offer back that 13-15p range on no meaningful asset sale was being generous on my part towards keeping spirits up here.... I wouldn't be at all surprised by 12p for eg, but 40% down from 17 ish p would surprise me reasonably, in fairness...there is/was an offer on the table of 17p after all.. )
Re all the posts here on POO rallying being great news generally: better rally than not of course, and far better rally than fall of course.. but look across your p/f's this week... It's not just Amer that's not rallying on this weeks spike.. far from... and, sadly, I'm not surprised, as when oil went to $80 dollars last year I watched in horror as, even from historically very low bases, the vast majority of oilers s/p's came nowhere - at all - near matching that rally. I'm now thinking that PoO nowadays seems far less an oiler s/p driver than it used be, when PoO is going up anyway; when PoO is going down it still drags many down with it alas: a terrible combination that ! Oiler s/p are now driven far more by the micro imho.. good news on production or drilling, either anticipated or happened for eg... or geographic risk ...or- especially- confidence in management (including of course then having big skin in the game ) ...etc..
Generally, the marco oil picture is a sad one for me; especially including shale, there's simply too much of it in existence across proven and probable in the ground, oil in storage and oil in live production.. etc.. and it being a non renewable resources in these climate change times is a very significant and growing issue vis a vis II and PI investment in the sector too ....and, altogether, that is having and will continue to have an adverse impact on prices achieved, on average, across the sector as a rule imho, be that the average share price or the average co. sale price
(towards having some positive in this post: still big individual winners and loser O&G stocks... so always an opportunity for good/lucky stock pickers imho)
Now that's a sign of confidence in our management team!
I sympathise with the comments around Clarke and his crew just downing tools -they need to continue to do the day job but this aint happening and I think we are all fed up with a management team that just cant deliver operationally. ONGC are the cause of much misery so one hopes that Oxy or another major player takes that CPO stake to play the Indians at their own game.
... to blue
ONGC gave deliberately killed any upside on this share, you find a top discovery - they bury it, multiple rigs an absolute and force us into a duster - No attempt to market the upside after 8kbopd well Jesus and sorry JTD taxi tender ?? I think you are missing it 100% we are getting played, not only played but stymied - we can't past the value button whilst ONGC hold out, so sell or remove the road block. They know what they are doing - scum IMO that's why the process is so prolonged - as it requires a complex solution - even a takeover - you have to deal with the obstacle - hence the negotiations. GLA - ONGC are playing us down - Feck the Taxi tender as an excuse - sorry - but what would GTE do with that find - have 9 drills and pump in $100m - come on. That's the barrier we face ONGC Elephant in the room. Our BOD BIG MISTAKE not advanced other options -= LAZY LAZY FFS which hits you sooner rather than later . HNY
JTD that is a good observation which of which I have been aware of and asked why does it seem to be we have downed tools whilst the 'SALE' is progressing. For anything to sell anywhere near it's full value . it has to be sold in mint condition , full working order. I am not convinced as most here are that this sale will go through , so coming out at the other end they must be firing on all cylinders , if that is remotely possible with this shower of...
If we are stuck with this I think 13-15p is fanciful , this will drop 40% big style .
The market isn't one bit interested in this stock , it doesn't even value it on a daily basis. It is simply waiting for the next offer , the price of oil doesn't even shift it.
I would say the BOD are so not trusted as the performance has been so poor over the years , the rhetoric has been such lies , it is a hated stock now , we are hating it ourselves , we're only waiting for the end game.
I for one feel the longer this goes on the cheaper it gets taken out for if at all. Bogota my butt , if there were to be a super take all offer Bogota would not be in the mix. That offer ,to me , doesn't feel like it will be coming. So a break up sale it will probably be if it happens at all.
lately some posts make me wonder whether I am losing the plot. Members think we have debt and then others get confused between oxy and ongc. some will have you believe this will go for less than 30p. This will be sold and remember even M&P where never going in at the highest bid first time of asking. I would be more interested in where we can meet up for a night of celebration. Birmingham curry house or London or Liverpool. Personally business could take me to all of them. Mind you would like 35+ as could justify the **** up. Anything less would be derisory and not worthy of a celebration. Looking for other cities or vote your preference. Should kill the boredom for a day or so. My preference is Liverpool but can do all three. Loving Boris for not grovelling to Europe and just ensuring a fair deal not even a special deal. Most of my business friends are more worried about Corbyn getting into" number ten" than a no deal Brexit. Survived bombing raids and two world wars and some do not feel we could survive and then prosper from Brexit eventually. I bet a few veterans would turn in their graves. On a light hearted note the doorman at a top Bogota Hotel will keep me update for any oil moguls comings and goings. ;-))
Superb find jtd. We need something to keep up our spirits here whilst we wait for what is likely to feel like eternity.
Mathurin - I really don't know, it would to a guess, but I think the odds are strongly in favour of a deal. Though a the deal price may well disappoint many of us, including me, I reckon we should be looking for 27.5p minimum as that was the price of the last placing +10%.
Unlike others I do not fear a no deal as this process will tease out a future direction and create new optimism and then all they need to then is deliver operationally. lol Any dip in SP will be offset be a renewed drive and possibly the graceful (or otherwise) departure of some directors. I am optimistic the bad old days are now numbered.
if this s/p stays around these levels and the BoD then announces no takeover AND no - or minimal - asset sale(s) then the s/p would go back to approx. 13p to 15p range imho.. that would be a real choker and one hell of a hit to them - skin in game etc - and us all versus a 25-30p full buy out for eg .. clearly the BoD now needs to come up with, at very least, some sort of a decent deal here.. I believe they get that and will deliver at least decently.
A very wise mail from JTD . I wonder what odds you would give that no take over may take place - the BB seems to view a min move to 24p or say 50% - the traders don’t have the patience to wait a result but why no confidence from the market for a likely 50%+ and a limited downside .
A Bureaucratic nightmare, and then some - I just checked the ONGC corporate website tender section - as you so when bored. Would you believe ONGC have put out a tender request doc for a taxi service for a branch office in Africa - I'm no corporate wizard but even I can order a taxi.
"“Hiring of Taxi services for Maputo Branch Office (Mozambique)”
Seriously, it is taking formal process to the ridiculous - no wonder they operate at a snails pace, sorry that's probably being a little harsh.
to snails.
I can't see them putting organising a bid for CPO-5 and executing before we all give up, die or sell.
Operators control the pace of development and what smallish operatorship Amer do have over their assets they have proven poor at delivering for years now.. i.e. they've dropped the ball endlessly and therefore have little operationship credibility left.. The one thing they have consistently proved themselves good at is dealmaking ; so perfect they look to sell the co. imho.... lots of other good operator oilers to put the proceeds from here in: win, win.
Give me 25-30p for my shares asap and get me the buck rogers out of here please..
Clearly I am playing the wrong mood music on this BB now, we only want to contemplate a sale.
I get ticked off for going on about the importance of operational performance and even the importance of the Interims (it is still vital IMO because it strengthens our hand even if we sell), if we don't sell or sell out completely it could be critical, though you may wish to ignore it.
It is unbelievable that some are questioning why the SP flatlines when the oil price blossoms when happy to believe operations are no longer critical, think it through guys.
The SP tells us all we should need to know about it's importance - it always was the and remains the root problem, our SP would be well past 40p now had they performed as promised. It may have escaped the notice of some that whilst our SP slumped, others released news, notably HUR announced news of their well (which incidentally flowed at similar rates to what we might expect from Indico-2) and the SP rose strongly.
Some while ago I commented on the importance of the Plat performance and was then challenged that it was no longer important by certain posters as CPO-5 and N-Sands - the subsequent N-sands failure brought the BB and SP starkly back to reality and the BoD kickstarted a workover programme - much as some would like to we count out chickens at our peril.
I have been investing for many decades and had great winners and total losers , takeovers fall through and I have had shares where this has happened, it that particular case the company where is series trouble because after the failed takeover operationally they where in a mess, I eventually made a good return because they got control of their problems.
Operations don't matter, really? Wise up. it's a major risk to our wealth if the BoD let performance slide.
I believe I was the only one on the BB suggesting the BoD undertake a strategic review, it was long overdue, but again some seem to be ignoring the fact that the whole point of a review is that it has findings to report and those may be that a sale is inappropriate, we need a plan B the ensure the best outcome irrespective of the fact that a sale is by far the likeliest outcome.
I will let this drop now by simply saying IMO every action our BoD takes, failure or success is important and can trash the SP irrespective of the bid situation, until we have the money in OUR bank accounts we need to remain alert.
it would be a triumph of self-restraint if management's behind-doors presentations to prospective investors aren't reflected in the sp. Trying to keep that info quiet will be tough, so we may well see sp start to gyrate more in the next few weeks.
Alas, at a macro level there remains considerably more supply - live, stored, easily brought live, proven etc.. - out there than demand Colonel, and that's what underpins such complacency imho.. (slow as I am and as much as I don't want to admit it: the OPEC & friends reductions need to be considerably deeper for A START.... and this outage may well, unfortunately, further prove this imho.. Their reference benchmark to cut against needs to be a different -harsher - one ..say a longer term historic average for eg ) And even still, altogether there remains enormous amounts of oil - and gas- in the ground around the world.. and that's a long-term fundamental problem for poo&g whatever imho. Very much hope I'm wrong of course and afore not so say there won't be considerable volatility in poo&g along the road either..
The Amer s/p reaction today so far is disappointing to me, to say the least.. but at least the market is very consistent in seriously disliking this stock, in fairness.
This highlights to me that at - very - least some very meaningful asset sales have to occur from this 'process' .. and it's better for all concerned imho that the co. is sold in total - be that to one or more counterparties - for anything north of 24p
The market - serious - dislike of this as an independent co. puts its own pressure on management too, and potential buyers will be very aware of this. Altogether, an outright sale for 30p here would be a great achievement imho.. and - only - because of the previously proven deal making skills of management - as good as their delivery skills are bad even :-) - I'll stick with that as my stretch outright sale price target here.. but I'd be pretty happy with anything north of 24p for an outright sale and never hear the - headache to me - name of Amerisur again.