London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
i am thankful of the fact that M&P are still at the table...
they have acreage and at $500 000 - $750 000 for total take out they get large acreage in prime fields and a pipeline that is strategically priceless. Just musing. JTD hoping basils drugs are not prescriptive. Hopefully just a glass of whisky to much, however still enjoy the read when not being totally confused,alternatively he could be a literary genius ahead of his time. Waiting game for us all until end of this month and if board do not accept the offer expect an aggressive take over within weeks that they shall have no control over. Still I expect a good deal as the goods on sale are hot property in the right hands.
It is of course not beyond the bounds of possibility that Amer have themselves suggested a delay to the Indico appraisal. If they are looking for an early exit this would seem a sensible course (provided of course they get what they see as fair value for CPO5). If the Indico appraisal starts now some investors may be inclined to await the outcome rather than accept what is put on the table now, with the inevitable delay to the whole process. Amer may prefer to sell the prospect of Indico success rather than the reality which could go either way
My preferred choice of partner is Geo Park every time for reasons I've made clear a number of times, thay are the real deal in Colombia, GTE are OK but they have had significant setbacks over the years and sacked Dana Coffield to refocus, IMO Geo Park offer the best router to cashing out at a premium to the offer price if we eventually have to accept shares in any offer.
I believe a share swap deal a price of x2 current SP would be fair i.e. 34p+. Without a good cushion a cash price should be sought, of course it doesn't matter a toss what I think.
Also GTE paper might be down as per sector but plenty of upside should they offer cash & shares.
Bay- you post some great stuff - but at times I wonder if get on the cider at night or perhaps something a little stronger, I think if this continues we'll all need something to rationale the irrational.
I'm interested your viewpoint so read your posts, but it's hard work - how the hell does George Smiley fit in! I never watched that particular drama but I assume the link is the intrigue and betrayal.
I think you are crediting ONGC with far too much guile.
There is another possibility, some technical or practical reason for ther delay, IMO our BoD have a habit or holding back news to bundle with some good stuff.
$4.72 is an analyst long term price for Gran Tierra against current $1.2 - showing
optimism for one potential buyer for Amer. It will also give hope for Amer shareholders that the end result of the strategy review may be better than some current predictions .
Hope red lines prevail over white lines.
Roth1 you are missing the point, the actual number doesn't matter. The point is if you were to value the assets now after two unsuccessful drills it would be significantly lower than in the excitement of January when 'ocean of oil' was the phrase being banded around as well as valuations in the billions of dollars.
Quoye - Games we play - Remember Gary Oldman in this -
ONGC Tinker Taylor Soldier Spy – Where we are
• George Smiley : Is there anything you would like me to pass on to Ann? ---- Quote After you destroyed the BOD Credibility !!!! with false dawns - knowing you are having intercourse with Ann.?
Bill Haydon : That was nothing personal, George. You have to understand. Karla said that you were good; the one we had to worry about. If I were to known as Ann's lover, he'd figure that you wouldn't be able to see me straight. And he was right, up to a point... ( After to having a blatant affair to blind our MI5 man Jesus in the film, he shafts our team FFS , kills our opps and assumes control – through Co-ersive Control) ,, Karla is played in the film by ONGC. But we have George in the wings
George Smiley : Up to a point. Yes CPO 5 Do you want her! Then we have to deal with Karla direct!! We Wait and see.
Medication Time Nurse....
HNY
Bigsmoke - Peter Levine Yes - 50 years to forget that deal, Wait great post ONGC funding, but as India's leading light to find Mega Oil & JV's with the Global Oil Players & support the largest Oil consuming nation in the world - they need global; tie ups. Given South America = Venz has cost them big - get cash, get out - .Point 2. X factor 23% in CPO 5 is'n going to produce the margins ONGC require - ain't going to extract the profitable juice as other global projects else where. IMO I think - I said before - Objective = is to take ONGC Out !! As the Boris said Out by the 31st Oct 19. Then Amer gets back in control in whats left - to me the 23X factor for a global kills 19 rigs as the value added is marginal. To us 50kbopd a share GTE Geopark are used to X factors no problemo - key here is the 48+% II's where do they sit - Notice GC has not given a promo video in all this as ongc - AS Wait states go tits up - Key to this circus is options - I think Amer have got the help & professional back up it needs - there are too many fine opportunities here to waste - its about marketing with a dullard ONGC in the room discounting the mixture - and as the drones helped explain in the ME- Saudi are wide open for attack, a $100k drone causing $1bn of damage = SIMPLES - Will take years to secure KSA borders from drones - risk premium built into POO will have a back stop priced in.HNY Wait - like the thinking- pre bidding. GLA
CPO5 for £250m is more like a fair price!
Nice article written after indico hit...a lot of oil.
https://www.hydrocarbons-technology.com/news/ongc-videsh-makes-oil-discovery-in-colombian-onshore-block/
I take it you mean $100m and not $100! But if you think that is a fair price for CPO5 you are way off the mark!
While we wait, here another conspiracy theory
After Indico, JW went to India to get the sign off for the rigs. ONGC made an offer to buy CPO-5 and Amer accepted it in principal.
ONGC needed time to get the money together (internal tender for overseas development fund) so they switched the drilling plan to Calao and Sol. Calao was always a strange choice looking at the seismics. Amer *agree* as excitement at the time was high and they needed a period of stability for the sale to go through. Sure they needed to drill holes to meet license commitments but Calao and Sol were not optimal choices to say the least. Two more dusters would make the 'fair' offer more palatable to Amer's over excited retail investors.
6 months later, ONGC have progressed to have this financing available now https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/ongc-to-borrow-2-billion-through-unique-overseas-debt-programme/articleshow/70894128.cms?from=mdr
In July, Amer get frustrated at the lack of bid progress by ONGC and start the formal sale process, (triggered by a weak informal offer) in order to pressure ONGC to hurry up and also provide justification that the offer is at market rates. ONGC being owned by the Indian Government won't want to be seen as overpaying.
ONGC win CPO-5, Amer for $100. Amer and ONGC can both justify the price is fair.
Brilliant !
meetings next week with management in Bogata for a game of truth or dare.
ive no problem waiting till the end of the year, as long as its way north of 30p, will be well worth it, imo
GLA LTH Some peeps need to clock off now and again, everything that can be done is being done, imo
it's not like they are buying a Luck Dip ... wait, maybe they are.
This stock should have come with a warning:
"AMER investors require the patience of a saint - AND THEN SOME!"
Agreed Sands, this has been a snoozefest for a while now.
Only people making money are the brokers as the day traders wake up see there's no RNS and take there money elsewhere for the day before putting it back here in the afternoon (in the vain hope we'll get another announcement in the morning)
At this moment in time I'd even settle for 24p price just to move on with my life :)
2 months since the initial RNS on 19th July announcing the FSP, lets hope now the cricket summer is over that GC has time to focus on AMER!!
its like groundhog day
when we selling at 36p?
The Indian's are impossible to do business with, example I also hold CNE. Bureaucracy, incompetence and a measure of corruption, a nasty mix.
Maybe the Indians are sulking cos GC forgot to give them tickets for the Cricket world cup (ref. GC comment at AGM).
Then they lost so they've gone into depression.