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I think we only move on offers now - no matter what goes on out there.
However I bet the destabilization in the Gulf could lead to a better offer or a new entrant whop maybe wants reduced risk low cost production.
Either way the oil flowing through the pipe will be sold for more & so at least the bank will be growing faster than that paultry 4million in the last 6mths.
6800 a day, another $6 a barrel...all adds up, another £1 million revenue a month.
Should about cover the ever increasing "expenses".
Sorry, up 10% - don’t have me glasses https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cmjpj223708t/oil
I'd rather this had not happened, however, it has so if AMER does not move north on Monday there is something very wrong going on, other than the shenanigans between all these nation states IMO. :)
Deffo agree going to be a spike while shorts are closed. Also agree that broader/deeper uncertainty in mid East is a concern.
On the other hand 2020 is election year and Trump will do all he can to keep a lid on petrol prices at the pumps (alternatively may go nuts and start a conflict with the Iranians).
Going to be interesting to see what happens. Hopefully nothing too major, but extra risk for mid East which making Colombia and Amer seem a more attractive is good for us
50cc - The direct impact of the drone strikes on production can be mitigated I agree. However in oil traders minds is going to be ‘what next?’ . This attack was both low tech and low cost making it highly repeatable, and is also very, very hard to defend against. The Saudi oil infrastructure has shown to be vulnerable, and in the Eastern provinces where there is considerable Shia support for Iran this type of strike could well become recurring.
For example the East-west pipeline runs for hundreds of miles on the surface across open desert from the big fields in the East to the Red Sea ports. 5m bopd flows through that, when it broke down a few years ago oil spiked double digits! These are targets which are not hardened or militarised, this could all become quite dramatic quite quickly.
I think it will help a little but....in the longer term countries that need oil will look at the geopolitical situation in the Gulf and want to write future contracts with suppliers in more stable regions. Colombia is coming out of a thirty year war all sides might be willing to put aside their differences and make some money.
I'm not so sure will have a massive impact on oil price. Will go up deffo but there's enough supply and in store that OPEC just need to relax the current restrictions. Will help clear some oversupply which is good longer term - think analysts were predicting lower demand for 2020 anyway.
All depends on how long takes to fix and the Saudi reaction.
Algos will limit impact on Amer price, but can't hurt the FSP
What do we think it will do to our sp ?
Well the drone attacks on Saudi Arabia will up the price of oil come Monday.
Col -
Clearly indigo2 is being stalled. We need a plan B
I agree / the second notice was thoroughly dry and negative - gives the feeling of a non- event.
Hi all
Though it’s frustrating having my largest holding sat here for months. Assuming the process happens as management have indicated, it would be even worse if my dosh sits here for several more years. I might not be here to enjoy the dosh.
What I cannot get my head round is whether these presentations are of any use to known interested parties.
So my take is that a bid could come at any time or not at all.
So day traders beware!
but, IMHO, you should not put out two statements - 3 weeks apart - strongly advising shareholders to sit tight, then go radio silence and finally release rather imprecise results. a disservice.
Margaret, I think the guidance of 5-6000 was based on no exploration success. Now that indico 2 or 3 have yet to be drilled the actual year end figure will be greater than 6000 as we have not got to throttle back on indico 1 as they did with Calao. I'm starting to think we would be better off not selling cpo-5 and keeping plat and the OBA and get best price for the rest. At least we will have a relatively good production and growth plus all the revenue from the OBA. Oh, and keep put 8....
Half year EBITdA was $19m based on 5500 bopd. Currently we are at 6900, with. Year end average expectation of circa 6000. You can assume an average of 6500 for the 2nd 6 months, that extra 1000 bopd will give around 180k additional barrels, over and above the first period, which will provide an additional 8m of margin, giving end of year of 46m EBITDA. Based on current valuations, we are priced at a PE of 5.5. Amerisurs potential in capable hands is of course worth a great deal more, 20k bopd is not out the question if drills are successful.....but that’s the buyers upside. If we merely base it on here and now given no debt and low risk profile then a PE of 8 is not excessive. That would give a starting valuation of $368 (£304m) or 25p. The calculation of upside from here is the analysis being done in the data room, what extra can a suitor bring to the party......that’s where the discussion is and where the deal will be thrashed out.
JTD & PP its good to get your differing points of view on all things Amer, thanks for all your posts will continue to read with interest.
Announced they have just acquired another block in their expansion programme, this time in Brazil.
It is small cost/scale but shows they are indeed consolidating (see themselves as a consolidator) their position in all regions - recently acquired blocks in Ecuador (intercampus) and Colombia (llanos).
James F. Park, CEO of GeoPark, said: “GeoPark continues to expand block by block in the most attractive proven Latin American hydrocarbon basins and cost-effectively assemble a unique risk-balanced short-, medium-, and long-term inventory of exciting new growth projects.”
If they don't bid for Amerisur's Llanos interests I will be amazed, unless they partner up with someone I believe they are the most likely buyerofr CPO-5 more so than ONGC.
Pickedpeck - what I say may be at odds with the message you and others are trying to provide, but it is true nevertheless, all performance metrics are down, the company disclose they are paying off debts from last year, so last years claims where exaggerated? Paying a large sum in interest when we are debt free, how so? Looks like we took advances from Shell and maybe other parties perhaps to cover the purchase of the block from Vetra - if so we actually lost money on the deal with occidental.
Reduced operational programme, costs rising, performance below expectations - if all that is good news then you and the Colonel are right "I've lost it" because I honestly can't see it and you are a pair of investment guru's
Fairly standard set of results with no surprises. Often I've seen companies, before a sale or change in management, try to clear the decks - getting bad news out of the way so can start afresh. Perhaps the excess barrels taken from the government earlier in the year was actually due to manipulation of figures from last year (i.e they had been owed and kept off the books to make last years' figures look better). Anyway, no big shocks came through which is good news.
Results also confirms, what we've known for a while, that ongc are playing silly buggers with Indico2. Has been clear to see this was happening but definitely comes through strongly in this report.
All in all, update on Indico2 would've been good and seen a jump up, but otherwise report is ok. It actually gives me confidence that they are definitely going for a full sale - something most PIs would be quite happy with.
@Fevertreeman A tad bit fair in my view.
The reality is this year has been disppointing with the drill bit but the company has still managed to hit 6,900 bopd, which is as healthy as its been for a long while.
For me CPO-5 aside, AMER and their partner have needed this year to prepare for the drills on what is upto 5 blocks. The PUT 8 approvals were alwys going to take until Q4 at best due to the decision to take up the offer on the 50% and then sell it on. OXY have also clearly being planning their 5 drills on the othe r4 Putamayo blocks and will drill them in 2020, with or without AMER.
PUT 8 for me has a lot of potential given it has such good access to the OBA. That alone is enough to get excited about in 2020 and it needed this year to make it happen. So yes AMER have consistently tried, very amateurishly, to pull the wool over our eyes on expected drills but there was good reason for the delays on bloaks where they still hold operatorship.
At 50% ownership those drills have the potential to deliver better all round volumes than CPO-5, be it both would be nice.
ONGC can only drag their heels for so long and their is an argument to be had that they too need to get infrastructure and land purchases in place, although right now I don't buy that. So they will be drilling next year and for me they will ramp it up in several areas of the block. Unfortunately we won't be around to witness it or enjoy he rewards that it entails but the oppotunity is very attractive to those interested parties that are sat at the AMER table.
Let's hope out chaps are better at playing poker than they are at running an E&P business.....
Having opened the books to potential suitors who have all signed confidentiality agreements, what happens I wonder if they all just walk away. Normally they'd be barred from coming back with an offer for 6 months because of access to commercially sensistive info. SP hangs around this level or below, ONGC refuse to move forward on Indico, and lo a low ball bid comes in with our boys desperate to exit as they have done SFA on the drilling front...