RE: Warrants Outstanding27 May 2026 07:26
Fair Market Value Assessment (as of late May 2026)
Current market cap: ~£12–13 million (share price ~1.5 GBp, ~850–900M shares post-dilution).
EV per Ounce: Extremely low at ~£35–40/oz across ~340k oz total resources. This is a deep discount to peers (e.g., OMI at £300–400+/oz for more advanced/high-grade material).
Scenario-Based Fair Value Targets (short-to-medium term, post-assays and resource update):
Low Case (assays confirm but no major expansion; modest JORC upgrade): £18–25M market cap → 2.0–2.8p. Conservative £60–80/oz valuation. Minimal re-rating.
Medium Case (solid repeats of historic grades, 50–100% resource growth at Molly, clear extensions): £35–55M market cap → 4.0–6.0p. £120–180/oz, aligning with active AIM gold juniors heading to PEA. Realistic base case if geology holds.
High Case (bonanza assays, district-scale confirmation, M&A interest): £70–120M+ market cap → 8.0–13.0p+. £250–400+/oz premium for high-grade upside in a Tier-1 belt. Possible in strong sentiment/gold rally.
My Fair Value Opinion: At current levels, JAN trades at a compelling discount with asymmetric upside. A fair "base" valuation today (pre-full assays) is £25–35M (~2.8–4.0p), implying 80–170% upside from ~1.5p on positive catalysts. This reflects the de-risked ownership, drilling success, and gold market tailwinds, while discounting execution/assay risks. If Molly delivers even moderate success, the combined portfolio could justify £50M+ by year-end 2026.