I think the last line from the ARC note is encouraging
“ Detailed studies/early work are progressing, and Bushveld’s $65m financing package from Orion last year greatly de-risks these plans. We believe this will grow annual EBITDA to well over US$100m within the next few years.”
Well it’s progress, not as much as I’d hoped so no concrete yet poured, no exact date when pours will take place so could ba a while yet. But at least talks haven’t broken down and it’s heading the right way albeit at SRES usual pace!
Like most people here I had expectations of much better SP performance over the last few years I’ve been invested here, than have been realised. Did I get it wrong or has the market got it wrong. The good: We have made great progress in expanding the business and our production We have navigated through a global pandemic, with minimal impact on the business We have made strategic investments in the vrfb sector acting as a market enabler which should bring significant future V demand and provide us with revenue across the value chain We have been able to secure funding to prevent delays in infrastructure investment even during the global downturn We are poised to take advantage in the wide scale adoption of grid scale storage V price is rising
So why isn’t our SP flying given our great story and future?
V price has been poor our revenue has fallen significantly, expansion plans had to be funded through financing instead of free cash flow Our much talked about mimi grid has been still not been built, the impression of it been imminent has been given fir years which casts doubt on the companies ability to deliver what it says in a timely manner Our costs have increased a lot, this should be short tern but when you look at the tables that show you costs, revenue, profit etc it’s not pretty! Sentiment has been damaged by hopes being placed of BESS contracts which have been delayed in South African Style, with corruption aligations flying around hopes for a big RnS contract have demonised significantly (in my mind anyway) Communication is not as clear as it could be and the wider market is probably not tuned into BBN’s analysis to help make it understandable for the lay person. We have seen big reductions from large holders that undermines market confidence There has been a lack of director buys on the open market, worse still they have not made sufficient funds available to cover tax liabilities of shares awards so there has been sells this again negatively impacts confidence
Just a few thoughts for what it’s worth, I’m still holding, I haven’t funds to add on this dip, I probably would add if I could as the rising V price is going to create such profitability in my view that the issues will pale into insignificance
The thresholds were crossed on 7th April and 4th May, yet they choose to report on 13th coming out the same day as q1 results. Lucky I don’t buy into conspiracies otherwise I might think they had wanted to time it for maximum negative impact