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Interesting that there where no after hours trades yesterday to distort the SP and the end of the day trading was very light.
That is unusually, for a very long time late trades have been reported to reset the price, maybe, just maybe, we have been released from the grip of those that (some PI's feel) have orchestrating the SP movement.
Wonder if today is the day for my 0.06%
Would of preferred them to drill the proven areas but guess the Indians had other ideas.
Hate to say it, but could they be targeting higher risk areas with a view of driving down the price in a potential purchase?
GF you are missing the point ENQ have a large debt pile which hopefully can now we settled over time Post development. AMER net profit comes as a result of CAPEX commitments to further exploration and upside. Granted this has been thin on the ground until CPO-5 discoveries but th work is turning.
no doubt about it IMHO.
We are miles off where we should be, I'd suggest a minimum of 17 - 20, however, realistically more like 23! :)
Its going nowhere fast unless
1. major success
2. major II buys massive volume of shares
3. TO offer
I think they're also starting to take on the notion of setting realistic targets and then beating them. Could argue they've gone a bit too much the other way. Good that message getting through at least. The two extra appraisals on Indico alone should give us quite a boost.
They maintained 5,000-6,000 production guidance for the year at the same time as saying 6,500 currently. They either expect some downtime, or some tail off over the year from the level of production post workovers. Exploration will either backfill for the tail off or add in additional production.
Don't assume production just stays flat. That is the real indicator (Indico) of the value in CPO-5 where Mariposa hasn't tailed off at all despite producing at 3,000 bopd since going online.
How nice would it be to hear a bit of good news from the 2 drill sites, well Plantillo 26 just now anyway.
this will tank so nicely and recover and I'm going to be the one in for £10k worth of shares when it does. Mr Market knows how to drop it, but doesn't realise its already undervalued.
Come on Amer fail me one more time. pleeeeeeeeease.
Refer to ONGC over 8000bopd from CPO5 ... 30% Amer = 2400, 20% = 1600bopd
From Amer April EoY report
Following exploration success at our third field, Indico, total production from CPO-5 reached over 1.275m barrels of oil at the end of 2018 and average Q1 2019 production was 1,600 BOPD net.
So depending on the discussion use ..... 20% net for Amer
And the 30% when you are quoting actual production figures
WRT to the three 2.5m trades - are we sure they where sells?
IMO our sellers are not notifying properly in any case, working with MM's to offload - last time we had big trades of that order it was someone buying the session before good news (insider trading IMO), 10m shares as I recall.
To some extent the notified price as the time of the trade is practically useless fot determining if Buy or Sell as the deals are often pre-arranged and the price adjusted to accommodate.
Several posters have pointed out that if Sol-1 is a flop the SP will trend lower - well I think if Sol-1 is anything like as successful as Indico-1 then the opposite trend is almost certain, and fully justified, with the pent up frustration at the ridiculously low SP I suspect many will gain the confidence to extend their investment.
The results of Wells suggest the geology is improving Southward - and Sol-1 is the furthest south yet
It was also stated during one interview that once all royalties etc were accounted for it was more like 20% to AMER
Forgot to add, it's probably more like 6500 per day for AMER at the moment. Should get update soon on Plat drilling, They must be close to testing now or maybe already are and sol news in few weeks or so.
Parreg, all correct. But AMER only have 30 percent of cpo-5. On the AMER website you can see the X factor on most of the blocks AMER are involved with. If you look at the ONGC website you can see the tenders out there. People have winged on her about why they drilled Calao instead of others but it is clearish that ONCG have obligations to seismic and drilling so not always logical on which they drill first. This possible also applied to the OXY farm out blocks which is why that was such a good deal for AMER. There is also a royalty on the blocks. I think that is 8 percent but more informed on here can probably confirm that.
Just reading a report on ONGC and they say CPO5 is producing 8000bpd, but last AMER production figures show 5000-6000bpd.
The firm also struck oil for the second time in a Colombian block, CPO-5. "The well flowed at a self-flow rate of about 4,000 barrels per day," the statement said adding oil was first discovered on the block in 2017.
"With the two wells, current production from CPO-5 is more than 8,000 barrels per day," it said.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/earnings/ovl-fy19-net-profit-jumps-71-on-rise-in-oil-production/articleshow/69477074.cms
Geezo, Simone wanted out fast on Friday with 7.5m shares at 12p or so!
What is going on? It’s over my head, IIs needed big style.
Ha - apologies 'pany will run out of prospects to drill.'...:-)
Morning all - Stifel have issued another research piece this am...I think probably at the behest of the company to try and shore up the SP - target remains 35p, remains a buy and an 'undemanding' valuation.
Summary
Amerisur is a debt-free, stable cash generator producing oil from three fields across two licences onshore Colombia. The investment thesis is simple: recycle $35-45M of annual operating cash flow into a mixture of short and long-cycle exploration-led reinvestment opportunities. Here we provide an asset overview, summarise recent events and lay out our view of the trajectory of the business. It is intended principally for those new to the company rather than those already expert. While our financials have been tweaked, our target price and rating are unchanged.
Key Points
We see two reasons for the shares to re-rate on a 12-month view.
First, the easy bit: the undemanding valuation gives share price leverage should the company deliver on achievable production targets. It currently trades at 80% of our heavily risked Core NAV (Figure 17), vs the sector at 100%, and we think this gap would close if all 2019 targets were hit - something that we have reasonable confidence in. Key guidance is for 5-6 kb/d of production and organic capital spending within CF, c.$30-35M.
Secondly, and more contingent: its small size (c.$150M EV) gives valuation leverage to any exploration success. The CPO-5 licence is already in production but can grow significantly (Figure 1), while the southern Colombia exploration assets benefit from validation by a $93M farm-in from US super-independent Occidental, a long-established producer in country looking to replace 30 kb/d of net production from its declining Colombian asset base.
Importantly, we also believe that the exploration opportunity set is evergreen on a 3-5 year view, reducing the importance of any one well and taking some of the volatility out of the share price, we believe.
The right capital structure for the assets: Stable production and limited capital requirements at the existing asset base + no debt means broadly flat OpCF for 3-5 years, the majority of which can go into exploration rather than maintenance / debt financing. There's also the potential for small-scale returns to shareholders given annuity-like cashflows from midstream infrastructure, although these aren't yet in our model.
Manageable financial exposure: Three factors play into this: (1) very short time gaps between discovery and cash flow, especially in CPO-5, a matter of weeks; (2) low cost onshore environment, with wells typically $5-10M; and (3) sensible historical portfolio management, with $40M of costs defrayed via the Oxy farm-out and a 30% working interest held in CPO-5.
Abundant subsurface running room: Licences are geographically very large and there are multiple play types on offer. As such, both CPO-5 and the Putumayo portfolio look capable of occupying a multi-year work programme so we don't think the com
Thanks for the info on the extra wells. Good stuff. The more they do, the more they learn. I still don't know why they are not targeting the area NE of indico towards Llanos 34. Would seem the most obvious place to get the continuation of that play. I also think it's an odd decision not to go for the extra Indico step outs. Rake in the cash and then use this to fund extra rigs. Must be a reason - perhaps as someone has stated here before - due to broader licence obligations. Would be interesting to know what these are in more detail. ..or perhaps rig availability..
Luck - Kamal-1, Metica-1, Loto-1, Mariposa-1, Indico-1 and Calao.
6 wells and 2 successes as ONGC state.
Amerisur have a history of Cherry picking information.
All wells accept the latest contacted oil so it's possible to claim a very high success rate if we are finding oil, if we are finding commercial oil it's 1 in 3.
Loto-1 found a substantial body of oil but the water cut could not be reduced to reasonable rates (I'm still not convinced they sorted the well out to seal the water bearing horizons), though they tried - I also recall they planned to drill Lot-2 as well as Sol-1 but never got around to it. Loto has potential and was supposedly a feasible producer is tagged to another field, I would like to see them revisit it eventually
I also have a recollection that a well was drilled in the south of the block long before even ONGC got involved.
It's part and parcel of exploration, dusters are inevitable.
In fact ONGC have only had 2 successes out of 6 wells on CPO-5.
But ALL wells have provided geological information which accumulates to provide better targeting of future wells, the success rate is improving with only the last well spoiling the hat trick. Even that is being evaluation to better select the site for the next well near Indico-1
Sol-1 is a longstanding commitment and was scheduled long before Mariposa -1 so does not benefit from knowledge acquired from the last 3 wells (hence it could be drilled irrespective of the last well being a duster, it has no bearing. Even if Sol-1 is a duster it will still have been a valuable drill Aguila-1 may well be scrapped as it will most surely push the focus back to drilling at Indico.
ONGC are quoted as having told Colombian authorities a few days ago:
"The oil company ONGC Videsh Limited announced the progress of the exploratory stage in the area, as well as the investments and the work carried out with the community. They stated that of the six wells that have been explored, only two have been positive, Mariposa and Indico IX, but they are in the confirmation stage, that is to say, that the studies are being carried out to know and evaluate the future production of crude oil.
"confirmation stage" so they don't know the level of future production yet, we're still testing and presumable once they decide investment increased investment is new wells will be forthcoming at Mariposa and Indico to realise any production plans.
I believe JW has already commented that Amer want and believe production should be increased at existing sites
As I've said many times, everything is still to play for.
It's likely that ONGC & Oxy have pre-emption clauses in any sales which entitle them to buy their jewels. Either at fixed price or according to some formula. This is likely to be a major deterrent to a hostile bid.
Overall I prefer that we keep delivering decent news from the drill bit. As many have said setting expectations correctly and then delivering.
I do not want a bid this year at all and prefer to wait for results to drive price. Perhaps followed by an agreed bid in a year or three.
That’s true but it will still drop 15% or so on a duster. The market isn’t rational at all!
In terms of the current share price then Sol is a free drill ie no value attributed. Resource 4mmbo although potentially up to 25mmbo. AMER is not even valued on current production cash flow.