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There has been a lot of recent talk about an imminent takeover of Amer and I would agree that suspected share price manipulation leads me to suspect that stock is being quietly accumulated. Also I believe our Board are aware of this threat and that is what possibly prompted GC to say at the AGM that he knows the real value of Amerisur. Ironically his reelection as Chairman at the AGM may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Other members of the Board (JW in particular) could be bought off by any potential acquirer with lucrative consultancy appointments or even a seat on the Board of the bidder. But GC would not be wanted and this may result in him being our best defence against a cheap takeover. He may well still retain considerable clout in persuading the institutions including Michinoko to resist a low ball offer. In any event, he wouldn't go without putting up a fight.
It's always possible of course that the Company are aware of future takeover moves. Indeed Amer may already have an understanding that they will submit to an agreed takeover when the real value of CPO5 is more apparent. That wouldn't preclude the potential acquirer seeking now to buy am much stock as possible at current bombed out prices and even engaging in some manipulation to get stock as cheaply as possible to reduce the eventual cost. A lot is riding on the Sol drill to determine what exactly Amer is worth. I can't now see any move being made before that result is know. Lets hope we have a bit of luck!
The II list presented in the Feb investor presentation (and given dated as of November) and the current one on the website dated 29th March are pretty much identical. Very difficult to square this with the notion of major holders selling out. Not sure what the obligations are re reporting ii's. Perhaps there are some that have under 3% reporting requirement that are exiting or playing with the share price. Certainly does feel like it is being walked down / controlled.
It's all down to the drill. Just need to be patient now and see where we are at the end of the year. I think half year results will be positive and then next year if we move to paying dividends it might open the door for more ii's.
Good points made, but I wonder why at these prices the institutions aren’t buying up (in fact have continued to sell despite Gc apparently not knowing) - and I think the reason for that is the BOD. Yes they bought at a premium but don’t forget how much money this company makes per day... their shares are not the big picture for them.. 75 bucks for the black stuff x bpd and they are laughing
Choppy, the sell off has been relentless for months and months. Through the good updates too. The BoD's have also added to their holding at a premium price. Not trying to defend them as their actions or lack of it is plain for all to see and the current MC more than reflects that. Despite all of that, I think the potential here is a great opportunity for a good return, T/O or not. Lots of private investors here are 'punch drunk' and patience tested to the point of selling for the relief of being out. The perfect play here for institutions as they know the sentiment and phycology they have created will ultimately benefit them.
How is that fake news - it’s a fact.. they update intermittently and in those updates set targets that can’t be met.. they then fail to update on the targets they set themselves.. and as you have pointed out are slow to give the bad news... which is what I feel it’s potentially going on here... which accounts for the sell off
Hope I’m wrong
Also, see col d post Friday 15.47.
But it’s just peel hunt picking up on col ds own rumination.
Lol - LC, you haven’t really. You posted a cry for help....
I’m finding the share particularly frustrating. All this apparent potential and good news in there pipeline (excuse pun) yet the market appears irrational?! That said there have been persistent sellers and as we all know a very weak board.
Something drastic has to happen here to turn this ship around.. as they repeatedly fail to offer the market clarity and they cannot meet targets
For all the bulls on here I wonder what the time lines are to get to 20 or 30p...
I’m afraid I see darker times ahead here. Delays in announcements here mean only one thing
Who gives a * , it makes not a jot of difference , what will be will be and we will all decide our own strategy regardless . I await the takeover and will move on from this pile of sh**e with the proceeds. The sooner this BOD are not in my employment the better for my mental health. Have a great weekend guy's n gals.
Looking at spread and timings Id say it was a Bed & Isa....possibly a rollover, but not so sure how those work...
How do you know they were sells. The colour does not necessarily confirm they were. They are both above the bid at the time so they were probably shares acquired and the price dropped the previous day to facilitate the price. ‘Mates rates’
Timed at 8.02 today. Explains the drop
So AMER bounced more than PMO and ENQ today, despite both of them falling further yesterday. Not all bad, seems to suggest a bit more resilience in the holders now. Good news could be interesting if things have really got a little tighter. :)
Is it just me or am I missing something? There are well informed entrepreneurs who keep a close eye on emerging companies and their potential, such as Faroe Petroleum. Now, is it possible to manipulate prices through purchases and sales and fear mongering to an attractive low cost. A roller coaster ride contributes to uncertainty but the entrepreneur gathers and when a significant turning point is achieved, and now being the major share holder, forces a takeover at a ridiculously low price. Those who chucked in to help this company grow are now benefiting greatly the manipulative vultures who have an agenda. I wonder what this is? Doesn't take too much thought, does it? It's a big boys club?
Of course I realise DC died tragically recently, my last post references him in the future tense. Before I get ticked off no slight was intended, the chap was a good executive for Amer, I was simply pointing out the facts.
CD - you're got it wrong wrt Dana Coffield, he was kicked out unceromoneously by GTE where shareholders blamed him for poor performance following some poor corporate moves, so although he could offer great advise on GTE, I have severe reservations that he could help in negotiations.
Lets be realistic, slights like beating GTE to a purchase will have no effect in deterring effort to merge or takeover a company, it's business, however our BoD are the key factor in determining if a mutually beneficial or aggressive approach is possible.
It has been alleged (particularly in respect to Cricket) that GC is very difficult and bears a grudge if crossed, he even said himself in an interview to illustrate his determination to win that he doesn't even like to lose at tiddlywinks.
My point is that GC is probably the key to facilitating, or not, a corporate deals. He been awfully quiet of late - I wonder what's he up to? My impression over the year has been that he is looking for a tip top price and that is one of the positives of his involvement. Those that think that Amer will be taken out on the cheap will be way off the mark unless there is a stream of bad news. GC and Michinoko seem to have patched up their differences and I think it will have come at a cost, most likely agreement to consider corporate options, if so it will be with a view to getting a SP that is no where near the current level.
Incidentally, I don't hold with the notion that GTE is out there as red hot favourite for a corporate deal, Parex and Geo Park would make a good match and both are looking for expansion ops in Colombia (CPO-5 would be brilliant for them) and arguably have stronger businesses than GTE. Then of course there are Oxy and ONGC followed by a large field of potential new entrants.
I may be way off the mark, but the time for a deal is not right at the moment as there is all to play for, but after this years programme good or bad, who knows
Either rumours out or there is anxiety about the result, cannot believe we are these levels. That said, this could well fall lower in the lead up, a second dry well will have us hammered short term.
Unless there’s a knockout bid, the first thing a low bid achieves is to initiate an auction for the north and south blocks or counter bids. There really is very little chance of this going cheap.
rhodi - there is a new troll on VOG BB bringing up your posts from 2018. just thought you might want to know.
On AMER - hope you are right. but as much as I respect CD's pov, I am more with 50cc. just do not see the buyout here.
Concur with you last post whole heartedly and I see a buyout in 2020 for treble this figure at a minimum in current state of play any increase in BOPD starts to push the T/O price in 2020 past 50p. But an aggressive T/O this year May developed after all, business is business. And our competitors and jvp's would be delighted to own the OBA as huge on going cost savings to be had as has benefited Amer.Why pay a fee to put your oil through the OBA when you can just acquire it. I should think we are on the radar currently of several operators in the region
I think the GTE stuff implies that they are going their own way. The implication is that our future lays with oxy - they'll buy us out in due course. Still expect further farm in to put8 and this is perhaps why no new director buys. Share price frustrating but nothing really changed. Lot of volume today and for every seller someone's buying. At an excellent price. News on the drills, new Ned appointed and further tie in with oxy will see us recover lost ground. Will be nice to see an updated ii Holdings on the Amer site. Any ideas what their obligation is to update - quarterly or just as hoc?
you carry on mate...trolling...lol...i'm in the same boat as yourself , if you own any stock that is. Wise up pal and don't suspect everybody as an alien to the stock. D*ck.
But we are having too many of these, PMO etc have good days as the oil price bounces, Amerisur feel lie it is weighted down with the it's History of failures, we need news to move whereas other oil companies and linked to the optimism surrounding the oil price.
The wider market aside, Amerisur has been trending down on low volume which points to a lack of interest rather than any significant selling pressure, IMO good news could drive the SP up significantly. Where back to the same old requirement for management to perform. They got away with the AGM unscathed, which is unfortunate, I just hope they don't settle back into the same old habits of kicking the can down the road.
It has also not gone unnoticed be me how quiet the BoD are and have not bought shares, I always assume these to be signals that there may be corporate activity constraining them.
Gran Tierra have been mentioned today , they have indeed raised some cash but more importantly they have just announced the signing of their agreement to take on Ecuadorian blocks. The linked article lists the key highlights of the deal, Take note of the last point, it looks to me like our OBA pipeline could be a very desirable asset:
Highlights
?Establishes the Company as one of the top landholders in the play trend which extends from the Putumayo Basin in Colombia through to the Oriente Basin in Ecuador; the Putumayo and Oriente Basins are the same geological basin, with different names due to the international border between Colombia and Ecuador
?Further strengthens and consolidates Gran Tierra’s position in what the Company considers is a conventional oil resource fairway; Ecuador has the same multi-zone potential in carbonate and sandstone reservoirs found in the Putumayo Basin, including the prolific Napo Formation (Villeta equivalent) and Hollin Formation (Caballos equivalent), which contribute to the majority of reserves and production in the Oriente-Putumayo petroleum system
?Gran Tierra has secured 100% working interest (“WI”) and operatorship in the Charapa, Chanangue and Iguana Blocks (collectively, the “Blocks”), which increases Gran Tierra’s gross acreage position in the conventional resource plays in Ecuador and Colombia from 1.1 million to over 1.2 million gross acres
?Gran Tierra expects to commence its Ecuador exploration drilling program in 2020; this new exploration program is expected to be fully funded through the Company’s forecasted net cash provided by operating activities
?Contiguous acreage extending from Colombia’s Putumayo Basin into Ecuador’s Oriente Basin provides Gran Tierra with the ability to potentially construct strategic gathering infrastructure on operated 100% WI acreage, which would allow the Company to potentially utilize the existing infrastructure in Ecuador
https://www.oilandgas360.com/gran-tierra-energy-inc-announces-formal-signing-of-ecuador-blocks/