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URI/AHT are leveraged and flexible in a diverse market place as opposed to the smaller frackers that are going bust because their leverage ratio is too high and they have no flexibility and the market is not too sure as yet on the lost revenue to rental companies so I suppose is keeping the sp down. Oil price being volatile and Feds intentions will also contribute. The stock market levels are also very high at the moment and maybe investors are fearful of a pullback approaching. The AHT sp this am was very tempting at £11.23 but today Friday awaiting non-farm payroll numbers it could easily fall just above £11 or cross into £10 high and that would be a great price long or short. General sentiment is that payroll number will be good at least above 200000 and that would be fine. ECB/QE: General sentiment is that it will give sovereign states much needed money to invest in their economies BUT they have to continue reforming/restructuring as QE on its own will not work. ECB QE is a mainly a last resort measure to bring down the euro and raise inflation. 1/3 of EU sovereign debt is in negative numbers! Economist comment: ''QE compresses bond yields and credit financial spreads'' ''it's a case of dislocated macro with high equities and low bonds'' USA data: non-farm payrolls feb various wage data unemployment rate consumer credit UK data: Halifax house price survey Germany: industrial production Good day investing to all
AHT is a kind of walkabout!stock BOE and tomorrow US payroll will be closely watched by the big investors as to Feds intentions Algorithm wander$ with low volume,but sp after about 1 yr+ has been v.good,so the market is cooling down its rise a bit,but at years end you will have a sp around £13+ I suppose we are also not that far away from may! Low £11 To £11.50 greaT top up going long. Also for no reason whatsoever this share takes a dive south and I mean a dive south at times,out of the blue so to speak. Go short on dips and hoover up and with a greater proportrion of your investment go long and get the best of both worlds. what troubles investors here is the relatively high debt level,but no problem for company QE details from ECB will also have to be digested She's a bouncey girl Best of luck
In terms of your experience where do you see the current SP should sit? I'm of the opinion around the £12.20 mark however this drop off is somewhat confusing given the latest news release?
ADP-private job growth lowest in 6 months /or below estimates but still good enough at 212000. Construction added 31000 jobs in February. US Chicago Fed president says rate hike should begin in first half of 2016 because of low inflation and global uncertainty. Fed beige book came in fine. Saudi Oil minister speak: ''oil demand gradually rising as global economy growth seems more robust and the oil price stabilising'' US data Thursday: unit labour costs Q4 initial claims Bloomberg consumer comfort index factory orders EU: ECB/Draghi release QE details UK: BOE rate decision AHT sp may go lower as Friday approaches Good day Thursday to all
Hi tidd83, I try to keep in touch everyday with market news and doing the daily post routine helps to discipline that,the more information one has one tends to have a better feel of how market behaves.Miss out on ones daily fix of news is a bit of a downer.With ones hard earned cru$t on the line the web is of great benefit as you see it more or less as it happens. Best of luck thursday
I have been trying to post here for a while but for some reason my mobile does not allow me to on this board for whatever reason. Anyways, I just wanted to say thanks and to keep up the good work. Your posts are always read daily and I appreciate the updates!
Market strategist comment: ''investors are re-assessing risks and buying protection ahead of jobs report'' ''after disappointing car sales,there are concerns that jobs report may not be that stellar'' Nasdaq at 5000+ market sentiment: ''high levels are greeted with a healthy sense of caution rather than euphoria'' But compared to 2000 .com bubble these are companies with fundamentals and PROFITS Vice president of trading services: ''also normal for markets to pullback after record high booking some profits ahead of jobs'' always feed that account,do'nt get greedy as I found out the painfull way Analyst comment: ''jump by Vix indicates investors are hedging their bets ahead of this weeks jobs numbers'' ''EU coming in positive with German data good and German consumer confidence at a 14year high,Ireland, Portugal,Spain growing strongly due to REFORMS and restructuring and Italy beginning to look better.France need to rerform more and faster and all this and QE has not kicked off yet'' Consumer spending: As one economist put it,with low inflation in EU and low interest rates the better option is just spend it and enjoy yourselves. USA data today: ADP payroll ism non-manufacturing fed beige book crude inventories UK data: brc shop price index pmi services AHT sp may drift lower hopefully. Good day investing to all.
hi slipperyslope, thought sp would move to about £12.50ish I suppose profit taking.I have not had a real opportunity today to look at reason for drop. Good buy back in price though.Intersting to see how things go tomorrow. B/fcst has been £13+ and when it steadies it trades usually about £1 shy of forecast. US job forecast Friday will be closely watched by investors as to Feds intentions. Market has been keeping URI well fenced in and they are doing the same to ourselves. Investors are anxious with rental as they are volatile BUT grind £orth overtime,$ound companies But can easily live with account enhancing volatility.
Hi Vigilant100. Very good Q3 results and medium term forecast. Amazing company this one. Keep up the good work.
$ound data EBITDA 45% ( 2014 (43%) Medium term outlook good Good day investing to all
Chief economist comment: ''short term investors should look to move out of US and into Europe as there is still room to o go'' CEO asset management comment: ''investing in Europe requires a selective approach and QE by the ECB would finally ensure that small and mid cap stocks,not just big corporations would get a boost'' ECB/Draghi on Thursday will advise on monetary plans going forward. Some say march could see a sell off and then everybody gets back in again on the dip. AHT sp £12.80ish at end of march US data Tuesday: 181 companies report earnings auto sales treasuries UK data: construction pmi Fed fomc on march 18th and maybe it might get somewhat bouncey on the run in. Wall Street $olid on closing bell and a nice boost for Asian markets
Interim results tomorrow. I bought just before todays close, hoping to be part of of the spike up in morning.
Market strategist comment: ''after February's strong run in equities and major indices,analysts expect a slight pullback in march as investors weigh stock evaluations'' Monday US data: personal income and spending ISM/PMI manufacturing index construction spending UK data: nationwide house price manufacturing pmi mortgage lending AHT should stay roughly high £11 and a fine position for Q3 release on Tuesday.A good PMI figure and favourable other data with good volume could move sp into £12+ Good day monday
''ARA forecasts increased investment of circa $12 billion by north American rental companies this year'' ''Rental revenue growth predictions suggest that the economic recovery in the construction and industrial equipment market continues at a strong pace.The stronger growth in this segment-industrial/construction-is also evidence of the secular shift we have seen in recent years that results in more rental and fewer equipment purchases by contractors and industrial contractors''
''Penetration index is ARA's latest resource to help rental store owners and managers,manufacturers,analysts and investors to better understand the potential of the rental channel and its long term prospects'' ''we also believe that the secular shift to rental may have at first been driven by macro-economic uncertainty but, that once customers turn to rental they appreciate the flexibility and convenience it provides and appreciate the added value'' Customers can avail of modern plant-well serviced-and don't run foul of ever stricter emission regulations. The UK/US economies are still in recovery mode and plant does not come cheap and with already tight financing and a rate hike around the corner,companies must be only too pleased to be able to rent any plant they need.
Recent speak from ARA economist: ''one of the biggest questions going forward is if the secular shift from equipment ownership by end users toward rental continues,and if 2014 is any gauge there is still room for rental penetration to continue to increase and as the economy continues to grow,this means more demand for rental equipment and a double barrelled boost for the equipment rental industry'' With the large scale de-fleeting from 2008 as a response to the 'crash' and Ashtead/Sunbelt being able to put in place a dynamic rental infrastructure,broad based and tech savvy and expanding articulately,they are now in a very competitive position. Feds/janet has recently stated that the US recovery is broad based and they will be 'patient' even after they remove the word patient from their forecasts/analysis. September maybe for rate hike,some think 2016
http://www.ashtead-group.com/lib/docs/042404-analystandinvestormeetingjanuary2015.pdf The last slide shows "Key growth drivers over the longer term", these are given as cyclical recovery +50%, market share gains +100%, shift to rental +20%, giving Sunbelt a cumulative 360% increase in market size over an unspecified number of years. Negative factors: Sunbelt is not the whole of Ashtead (unfortunately), pressure on rates as cycle develops, higher borrowing costs to finance capex, shrinking p/e as cycle develops. Still, could be scope for the sp to double again within a reasonable timescale.
Market Strategist comment: ''high unemployment,falling prices,hefty debt levels,have not dissuaded US investors from taking a bite out of equities in europe'' ''improving growth picture and ECB QE has painted an optimistic scenario for European stocks'' ''US investors continiue to find good dividend paying stocks in European Bourses'' Economist comment: ''contributing to low and negative yields is the fact that private and public debt in OECD has not come down'' Editorial comment: ''crude sell off,oversupply well above estimates and stocks are undeterred'' Analyst comment: ''correction?what correction!'' US data: gdp Q4 (2) imports/ex[orts Q4 disposable personal income Q4 Chicago pmi feb Michigan sent feb Manager of trading/derivatives comment(on oil price): ''we do sort of have stabilization now'' isn't that a beauty AHT sp looking robu$t and the momentum is £orth at the moment and SHOULD move into low £12 today. Otherwise price will hold its ground and a good level going into trading on Monday 2nd march. Generally the sentiment for stocks is po$itve and Ukraine improving. Good day investing to all
Analyst comment: ''German bund goes negative for first time and low yields all around is driving money into equities and high yield assets,infrastructure and property'' ''negative numbers here for some time,could be 5 years'' UK data Friday: consumer confidence Germany : balance of payments
Analyst comment: ''disappointing numbers on mortgage applications could have various reasons,from season to affordability to narrow choice.But lack of enthusiasm amongst 25 year bracket would signal fear of Fed rate hike to debt commitments. But with mortgage rates at very desirable levels one can conclude that wages are not yet strong enough in this age group to take on a mortgage in a recovering economy'' ''for higher level housing there is strong demand from foreign investors'' ''Fed to raise rates now would be crazy'' US data today: cpi/core cpi jan durable orders jan initial claims feb Bloomberg consumer confidence index EU data: m3 money supply economic sentiment UK data: gdp Ukraine: Putin wants Ukraine to pay its gas bill or supply will be cut off and then supplies to west could be squeezed down. Good day investing to all
Editorial Comment: ''Rental penetration index for 2014 came in at 53.9% covering construction and industrial rental,the figure for 2013 was 52.9% and was the 5th.straight year of growth. Penetration index is proportion of the total fleet of construction machines that are owned by rental companies. Rental penetration continues to increase in conjunction with strong rental revenue as observed by recent data/survey. AHT sp moving up nicely and hopefully the markets expectations of $ound Q3 number$ will have it @£12+ before Tuesday 3rd.march. Most recent Broker forecast from C/Suisse gave £13.20ish
City comment reflecting on present high: ''Ftse 100 has underperformed and has a low correlation with UK economy.Laden with banks and mining stocks have kept it down and also overseas companies with a presence on it'' ''wage growth is not happening because in some cases there is a over supply of labour'' UK data: mortgage applications BDEV came in good with good sales and higher home prices and a positive outlook Good day investing to all
Not enough wage growth or growth in inflation-looks like june for some that Fed will raise,but not all are that convinced.Maybe late 2015. Market strategist comment: ''the increase in interest rates is not a worry for Market,what concerns investors is its implications globally'' USA data Wednesday: new home sales January crude inventories 298 companies report earnings
Oil analyst comment: ''Fed raising interest rates would strengthen dollar and squeeze emerging markets and a 2 + trillion $ debt bubble both sovereign and corporate is tied up with oil and Fed being patient both domestically and globally will hold off till much later''. Fed Janet Yellen shares her thoughts with Senate today and will be good for investors. US Small Business report: As one market strategist put it: ''Obamacare impact on small businesses is not significant'' City comment/pensions: ''UK pension costs too high.If costs were reduced by 75 basis points,pension defecits would be sorted in 25 years. On retirement day in Holland the pension pot is 50% more than UK'' EU: German GDP ok 0.7% in 4Q consumer price index today EU USA: 271 companies release earnings consumer confidence feb case shiller home prices Fed Yellen speak Greek sentiment: ''Looks like a deal will grind to a positive conclusion'' Ukraine relatively quiet!dfficult to reign in a bunch of cowboys that shoot airlines out of the sky AHT rising to high £11 so long as no shocks come out of the blue Good day investing to all
Bovis came in with $ound results and positive outlook for 2015. CEO says planning authorities are releasing more land/and process is speeding! up somewhat,but a lot of improvement is needed to be done. Holland for example the entire planning process takes about three weeks. US data today: existing home sales federal funds rate treasury various Germany data: IFO survey-business confidence etc Greece submitting their Reform/budget plans for Troika/EU USA manufacturing sector expanded in February. Spring is in the air and all those petro dollar$ will be clogging up the checkouts and all those house warming parties and loads of happy punters. Come on down came a voice booming from the heavens and Jesus was $miling-Spring is here fellas Good day investing to all