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Editorial comment: ''Brussels/Berlin will be given an extremely painful choice: bending to this moral hazard or risking loseing the funds that have been invested in Greece and more importantly sending a signal to the markets that the integrity of the monetary union is not given''.
Market strategist comment: ''One of the primary investment trends in the post-crisis market is breaking down providing an opportunity -at last- for stock picking to come back into vogue.Correlation or the tendency of asset classes to move up and down in unison is at more than a 5 year low'' ''High correlations have been a characteristic of market ever since the Fed started its active intervention in the financial markets.The QE helped tamp down volatility and in turn led to what market participants described as the risk on risk off trade.The waning of correlation marks the begining of a longer term pattern.The end of the Fed bond buying program is allowing a wide range of asset types to perform more on their own fundamentals. ''We reiterate our observation that binary risk on risk off market moves are on the decline.Stock picking and sector allocations will be the most important investment challenge in 2015 and hopefully beyond.Hopefully is a sentiment that will resonate with active managers whose performance during high correlations periods has been abysmal''. ''Clients have been fleeing active management,instead commiting money to plain vanilla index funds-not equity focused- which have been consistent winners- ETF,s- during the bull market than began in March 2009''.
Market strategist comment: ''The speak from the various Greek participating parties is less disparate than a month ago and fewer calls for exit from Eurozone.Mondays election result could have some impact on the Market but less than we all thought'' Greece will not be allowed to participate in QE until they agree to continue on their reform plans. At the moment its shaping up to a coalition government. Re-negotiation of austerity is not on the table. The QE stimulus from ECB has taken a lot of punch out of Greek election outcome. Newsworthy: Former top Greek tax collector running for election to government. One of the contributing factors in Greek bankruptcy was the fact that payment of taxes was abysmall and civil servants retiring at 45 years of age on fat pensions. We wish him well- but Jesus wept.
Market strategist comment: ''The focus for investors over the next 6 weeks will be earnings.We will find out about the energy sector earnings about middle of February and we will have a much clearer picture.Looks now like energy sector will have earnings revised down about 30% and will be a drag on overall S&P 500 earnings.But I still like the earnings picture for the rest of 2015,consumer discretionary,technology,financials that are not overstretched are still favourable.Energy prices not yet factored into Market,so it is a sector to wait on till a brighter picture emerges''. ''We have got this issue where we have got these gifts that have come to us if one is a Bu££ that is: 1.lower oil-we are a net importer of oil 2.stronger dollar-we are a net importer of goods/services 3.low interests rate-we are a big big debtor and will help us But in the near term there are negatives in all three of these.Consumers are not going to spend this gasoline money for awhile till there sure the price stays relatively low and the positive effect of this is going to be little bit delayed. Exporters are getting hurt a little bit. But then on the domestic side where there is a lot of help,I think that will come through a little later.In my view we are in for some volatility here,however when we come through to the Spring all the strong elements of the US economy and the benefits of these trends are going to come through and we are going end up with higher earnings through to the years close.My forecast for S&P 500 is 2350 for 2015.We will be buying into this present weakness for a few weeks''.
Based on exchge rates / expansion of business in US 1130-50 a good bet soon......Higher again once the spring DIY,ers get in full swing.
wouldn't be surprised to see a slghtly higher opening price for AHT on Monday. Cheers
URI revenue increases 15% for 2014. Utilization of Fleet 70.6% CEO/URI comment: ''We're in a strong position to grow the most profitable areas of our business including our high margin speciality rental line''. ''For 2015 we are guiding to record highs of over 6 Billion$ in revenue and approx 3 Billion$ in adjusted EBITDA. Our industry is forecast to have multiple years of growth ahead and our customers are upbeat''. ''While we expect to see a drag in some trade areas from the slowdown in upstream oil,our exposure is greatly limited by our size,agility and diversification''. ''Furthermore we believe that low oil prices will be a boon to many sectors we serve,spurring demand in manufacturing and other markets hungry for our fleet''. Total capital expenditure for 2014: 1.85 Billion$ AHT is also on the same playing field and equally re$ilient Good and safe weekend to all
Analyst remarks on URI: ...''URI will gain from implementation of growth strategies,higher rental rates,free cash flow generation,returning cash to shareholders and integrating acquisitions. Notably,will continue to focus on reducing the cycle time for renting equipment,improving accuracy,service quality and efficiency and cost control which will lead to an increase gross margin. The company is also poised to benefit from the recent fall in oil prices.'' No mention or concern with exposure to oil/gas industry or companies investing in their own Plant. AHT similarly will have a tight grip on the $teering. Good day to all
Market strategist at Deutsche Bank in a note Friday: ...''With ECB now commited to a large and sustained QE programme ,we continue to believe that this will be a good environment for European equities and European credit whether you like the fundamentals or not or whether you think it makes any difference to the economy longer term'' ECB/Draghi will only allow Greece participation in QE until such time as they agree a solution with EU . Looks very likely that Syriaza will win Greek election. Another bunch of windy woffffflers will decend upon the scene-lets hope not
AHT Q3 release on 3rd March URI up 2% on after hours trading-forecast for stock is between 87$/135$-average of 110$ and Hold Evermore downgrade on URI was based on pure speculation as one contributer correctly remarked as the Rental culture is soundly established and offers significant advantages to companies. 7% of URI stock is on short loan /AHT its about 0.5% General forecast for Rental Ind is $ound. AHT should return into £11+ again which places it well for a good Q3 data release ECB stimulus well received and should be a + + + for Market Good day investing to all
QE of mechanics to be released today. Editorial comment: ''The details will describe how far the ECB goes in meeting demands from Germany's Bundesbank for the risk of the scheme to rest with the National Central banks of individual states rather than with the ECB'' ''The duration of the programme is highly significant but also contested because Germany is troubled by the concept of Bond buying,particularly any Government bond purchases and wants to limit its scale''. ''The ECB has already cut its interest rates to record lows,begun buying private sector assets and funneled hundreds of billions in cheap loans to Banks.QE is the last big policy tool it has'' ''By buying government bonds the ECB would show its commitment to buoying inflation.It would also generate a portfolio effect whereby investors move into other assets-some of them outside the Eurozone-thereby depressing the Euro''. This exercise basically is to save the Euro. As one economist commented: ''QE worked in USA because its Fiscal structure has the fiscal INSTRUMENT to do it.Eurozone has a different Fiscal structure and ECB does not have this fiscal instrument'' ''.The USA is a homebased and cyclical economy and have their structures in sound competitive order.Businesses can raise money from the Capital markets as opposed to depending on the Banks''. One comment remarks that'' it would take about 5 years to get inflation to 2%'' ''Eurozone has to address its inflexible labour and product markets'' EU has to REFORM and RESTRUCTURE. ''ECB is dealing with 19 Central Banks and a myraid of Fiscal difference and QE as of today is not a clearcut,end all success story,far from it''. But will businesses respond . Will the big investors be impressed or look upon it as one economist put it -''fragmentation of Euro'' Todays ECB QE details most certainly will not have all the money men onboard. Germans are very afraid that the hard grind of Reform could stall as a result of QE. Market reaction today is not a clearcut all is fine again response. Greek election is also fast approaching. Good day to all.
URI Q4 beat Wall Street estimates which is a reflection of AHT's next Quarter release and the Market will go on that These are dynamic businesses that have demonstrated their ability to grow,adapt and satisfy the Market/Investors AHT should pop over £11 today. Good day to all
Release Q4 data after Closing Bell today EST Should be fine URI predict rental rates to rise 4.5% year on year USA data today: Building Permits Building Starts Treasury Notes 10 yr Good and carefull day to all
Baker Hughes oil CEO comment: ...''our industry is clearly in the early stages of a down cycle ,the same sort of cycle we enter once or twice a decade''.. he told analysts during a conference call. Conflict in Ukraine escalating with heavy clashes. Market sentiment: German friendly QE from ECB would not be well received by markets UBS chairman states that structural reforms that states have been too slow to establish is what is needed to get EU growing again.
as remaked last week by one market strategist is that a lot of smart money is going into URI at its present price AHT should start moving again once things settle down
It now seems that there will be a new Greek government after Sundays election.The anti-austeritySyriaza party are of this am with a comfortable lead in polls. The re-negotiation of the debt commitments I suppose are ready to be signed and Greece retains the Euro! Good day investing to all.
American Rental Association-ARA/19th.Jan: Trimmed growth outlook for 2015-they now forecast 8.5% for US. ''Equipment rental industry continues to grow at a fast pace with strong equipment rental demand within all markets. While the news focuses on the energy sector of the economy our industry is fortunate to have a balanced market place in which rental is in demand and energy represents only one of the markets''. ''Rental companies have always been flexible in meeting customers demand by adapting quickly to changing markets.The rental industry growth forecast remains more than double that of the overall economy''. ''The number of positive offsets in commercial construction,multifamily housing,healthcare and manufacturing help to counteract the drop in oil prices and contribute to the strong 2015 growth projections for the equipment rental industry''. ''Natural gas and oil extraction will likely be slower in 2015/2016 but it is important to note that extraction actually increases,just at a slower rate,even with lower prices.So the quick drop in oil prices now presents less of a change in the overall forecast for the equipment rental energy''. Broker Investec yesterday forecast £15 for AHT The oil and gas industry have also learned and significantly improved their land based extraction tech which keeps their costs down. Market sentiment this am all awaiting Thursday and ECB. Asian markets respond well to China GDP/macroeconomic data. Economic data release for US today is what I mistakenly posted for 19th.Jan Producer Price Index -GER Zew Survey -GER/EU
Ashteads A-Plant enters into a '3'year framework agreement with Balfour Beatty to supply an extensive range of rental equipment
Economic data: Treasury Bills '3' months Treasury Notes '10'Year Fed Funds Rate ECB Policy Decision on Thursday-please make it good Next FOMC 27/28th January Next BOE/MPC 5th February UK House prices Monday
French PM congratulates ECB for getting inflation down to zero Jesus wept Never mind Sarkozy is on his way back. Jesus Wept again
Swiss National Bank said cap introduced in 2011 is no longer justified. IMF says ''a bit of a surprise and moaned the Swiss had not contacted them'' Analyst comment:....''While the Swiss franc was held at 1.20 to the Euro, it had tracked the euro fall against the Dollar''........ '' and many believe the euro will fall even further if the ECB starts QE,buying Bonds to push cash into euro zone banks to stimulate recovery''...... One IG analyst commented: ....''my initial reaction that it is a sign the ECB are about to do something which makes it odd that the market reaction has been so negative across European stocks,however its not everyday that a Central bank pulls the rug out from underneath something in such a massive way and clearly people are worried that theres something bigger afoot''..... ...''keeping the Swiss franc at 1.20 to the Euro had become increasingly expensive for the SNB as it sold its own currency and bought up Euros,Sterling,$,Can$ and Yen usually in the form of Government bonds.SNB Fx reserves have more tha doubled since the cap was started and making it the 5th largest holder of Fx reserves in the world''..... Business correspondent comment: ....''The SNB points to divergence amongst major economies and in particular to weakening Euro which is at about its lowest level since its inception.With anticipated cash injections by the ECB the Euro is expected to depreciate more against the US dollar and as the Swiss franc is pegged to the euro the Swiss franc is weakening versus dollar as well.So the SNB conclude that there is no longer ''exceptional over evaluation'' of the franc that justified the minimum exchange rate.But the reaction from markets is to push up the value of the franc since the appreciation pressures are still there''.... Also as another commented is the safe haven status of the Swiss franc. Should be interesting to see what share price the Market places AHT in as it goes £orth again.Should settle around £11.50ish all going well. Greek election on 25th.Jan will add to anxieties for sure. Good day all.
URI ticker code for US company called United Rentals-biggest on the planet Price at the moment very ta$ty-top up with a careful amount and keep adding till it steadies Great prices for the long term and if it falls under £10 then come on down £9.50 Recent Broker Forecasts are all Bulli$h - hold on tight for AHT will bounce £orth again with a ta$ty profit Some very important data being released across the pond this pm -industrial production;Michigan etc FOMC and ECB data/intentions are being awaited in the near future which will give markets more direction AHT sound investment as price by 2Q 2015 could be back at£12+ This is a bouncey girl but fair due$ she grind$ north and delivers for the year Dynamic company-well run and carefuuly enhancing its portfolio of services through cash flow producing acquisitions Hold/top up-do not sell Good and careful investing to all
It's double topped. In my opinion, sell, heading for 900p
Thank you so much for your reply. At the risk of looking foolish I have googled URI and all can get is Urinary Tract Infection, Uniform Resource Identifier or University of Rhode Island so perhaps you could enlighten me. I see a lot of cryptic and elliptical comments in here with puzzling acronyms thrown around. Some of us are relative novices and not hardened day traders - I only have time to do this at the weekend no matter what the market is doing!
URI is having an influence on it and recent short interest on stock Market looking at potential loss of revenue due to oil decline and its exposure to shale/fracking Market trying to figure out what 2015 holds for AHT so price will be volatile for awhile