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Trader comment: ''We will experience big $wings throughout the year but markets will remain in positive territory'' Oil trader comment: ''Oklahoma tank farm/storage has a reserve space or contingency storage for an extra 20 million barrels'' ''Saudis will continue pumping until someone throws in the towel'' Greece comment: ''Greece has until Monday to submit its reform plans'' URI rises with oil while S&P 500 takes a dive.Not so long ago wherever S&P 500 went URI followed significantly. USA data: initial jobless claims services pmi bloomberg consumer comfort UK data: retail sales France data: gdp q4 Market $entiment is doing the splits at the moment but as regards the wise old hands the year will cross the line in the blue. Good day investing to all.
Realtor comment: ''About 17% of homes are in negative equity nationwide'' ''Rents are spiking up which makes mortgages more practical''
Chief investment officer Comment: ''Out of last 4 months durable goods have come under expectations three times and last seen since 2008/9 and is consistent with our view that economy is weakening'' ''More volatility on way compared to the last 3 to 4 years''
Analyst comment: ''Sell off in biotech and chipmakers after downgrade.Jitters on rate hike and central bank divergence policy'' Editorial comment: ''Sell in March! and go away'' Durable goods missed by wide margin.
Sunbelt continues its expansion with a new acquired bolt-on called RENTALEX which services SW Michigan. It specialises in a hands on service to the construction/industrial sectors and a large inventory of general tools and equipment. The rental industry also in Europe is investing and expanding. Ashteads/A-Plant has substantially increased its intake of apprentices which covers a three year training programme. Good day investing to all.
Analyst comment: ''The Feds removal of its patient language and less forward guidance and recommitment to data dependence last week has introduced increased volatility to market and Tuesdays strong economic data supported a Fed rate hike sooner than later''. Editorial comment: ''Consumer prices climbed 0.2% in Feb.Core CPI excluding energy and food items rose 0.2% double what economists were expecting.The Fed has to essentially respond to these increased indications of strength in domestic market without upsetting international markets too much''. ''US new home sales up 7.8% in Feb'' ''Saudis pumping 10 million barrels a day'' ''Germany economic data came in strong and generally the fragile EU economy is in sustained recovery'' ''China industrial activity slows to an 11 month low in March'' George Soros says that there is a 50% chance that Greece will leave euro,the Greeks are hurting themselves. City comment: ''The financial meteorite that hit the planet in 2008 initiated the death of the banking dinosaurs as investment in todays markets has seen fundamental changes and also necessary controls and increased regulation'' ECB has a 65% exposure to Greece compared to other EU states to the tune of 140 billion euro. USA data: crude inventories durable goods mba mortgage applications treasury bills/notes Germany: ifo business dta UK: bba mortgage lending figs
''3 year high should read 12 year high''
Editorial comment: ''US dollar continued to fall adding to its worst drop in more than 3 years from last week.It has now fell from a three year high.Lower dollar boosted crude prices as cheaper exchange rates as encouraging international demand''. ''Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer kept investor focus on the likelihood of a rate hike this year but data dependent as he spoke at the New York economic club'' US data: CPI feb core cpi feb pmi manufacturing new home sales treasury notes/bills UK: CPI EU: Germany/france pmi Germany/EU waiting on Greece reform plans as the smiling game continue$ Editorial comment: ''Money pouring into stocks on both sides of pond as other assets are no longer attractive and asset managers are under pre$$ure to make money for their clients'' Good day investing to all
Editorial comment: ''Charles Evans a leading dove on Federal Reserve said Friday that he was able to support the latest policy statement because it did not rule out US central bank keep rates at zero for a lengthy period. ....''Evans said statement was serviceable and told reporters that inflation is the key and maybe hike might start in 2016'' Greece: Editorial comment: ''Greece's financial future looks increasingly perilous'' ''The Bond vigilantes are giving Greece a huge vote of no confidence doubling the country's 10 year yield in the past 6 months and driving its 3 year borrowing cost to a frankly unsustainable 23% and severely restricting its ability to pay its debts and therefore forcing it out of the single currency club/Euro Zone'' Bonds: Editorial comment: ''Bond market is like a safety deposit box where investors can place/or park significant amounts of money safely for about 6 months at MORE than base value and in present market conditions what they get back is only BASE value'' USA realtor comment: ''The sluggish uptake on mortgages is due to a low inventory in the sense that there is not enough of smaller affordable properties which the construction companies need to build more of instead of high margin units.However we see 2015 as a strong year as more younger buyers enter the market and there is a strong demand for affordable prperties'' USA data: existing home sales fed vice chairman speak EU data: consumer confidence indicator UK data: cbi industrial trends survey EU: Greece pm arrives in Berlin today and greek finance minister visits Moscow today whilst Jesus wept. Good day inesting to all.
''good day investing to all ...not fit for purpose'' a mistake,please ignore BOL
Chief investment officer comment: ''Yesterday/Wednesday was a knee jerk reaction.It gave the shorts a reason to cover.It weakened the dollar and propped up the euro against the dollar and basically there was no reason for that to change... The Fed didn't say anything that wasn't expected or change anything with their statement''. TD securities: ''US economic data remained mixed at best.Jobless claims and the Phily fed pmi were broadly unchanged underscoring no further deterioration in economic growth momentum''. Portfolio manager comment: ''The test for stocks will be earning season expected to get underway in early april.The difference this time versus the last couple of years when you had QE and zero interest rates,you also had strong earnings.Now no QE,zero interest rates,but you no longer have strong earnings growth''. ''markets are transitioning to a limbo period where they wait for more information on when the central bank might hike rates and in the process become more volatile'' ''strong dollar,central banks easing,falling commodities,rate hike will make equities more volatile'' ''At year end the dollar will be on par with euro'' ''Fed will be patient and there is no reason to hike rates,2016 maybe'' ''Equities will become stretched'' The old-hands of Wall Street/City have predicted the market well so far. Greece: Greece again promises! to get a reform plan on table.Frustration putting it mildy abounds in brussels with an excuse greek government run by two charismatic wofflers. USA data: treasury notes/bills 3m/10yr EU data: balance of payments current account Germany data: ppi UK data: public sector finances Vice-chairman Fed/Fischer speaks on Monday 23rd march As one portfolio manager put it: ''you can do your homework and think this looks fine,but in todays markets a round peg does not fit in a round hole and a square peg does not fit in a square hole anymore and that's the challenge'' AHT sp hopefully will drift south again and dish up a decent buy in price. Good day investing to all. Good day investing to all. that is not fit for purpose.
Editorial comment: ''Fed says it will keep rates lower for longer following removal of 'patient' from its policy statement''. ''...elaborating on its economic view,the Fed said that since its January meeting economic growth has moderated somewhat'' ''In the longer run the Fed sees the median rate climbing to 3.75% the same as before.The slower pace of rate hikes likely stems from the Feds more subdued assessment of US economic growth'' Portfolio manager comment: ''Growth stocks will perform better with impending rate hikes''. ..''we favour equities over bonds'' EU editorial comment: ''Biggest threat to euro are the clowns that run Greece'' ''Greece may leave the euro by accident thanks to the incompetence in new government'' ''The country is now headed by a PM that has no political experience and who has never had a real job'' USA data: current account Q4 2014 Philadelphia fed index leading indicators feb initial claims Bloomberg consumer comfort index treasuries 3m/10yr UK data: cbi industrial trends survey-orders EU: ecb report AHT/URI came alive yesterday and it will be interesting to see where the market decides to place the sp. The AHT sp held well enough at high £10,so it will be good to see what kind of spread/range the market gives it for remainder of week'' Good day investing to all
Oil analyst comment: ''down cycles in oil tend to self correct in 18 months,so no one knows how long it will remain at these levels'' ''though there are demand issues in Europe,its the opposite in the US,oversupply is the issue'' Portfolio manager comment: ''sideways trading action since end of QE is an indication that people are confused about economy.Fomc statement is unlikely to bring about any clarity to markets after lower consumer sentiment figures and other downbeat data,the markets think that Fed will keep patient,and if it does not,then we are in for a selloff'' USA data: crude inventories fomc policy statement mba mortgage applications treasury 3m/10yr EU data: balance of trade ecb/draghi speak UK data: boe interest rate mins unemployment rate claimant count chancellor budget AHT sp and URI seem to have been corralled in a tight range,and the influencing factor is oil as opposed to the ftse100/s&p500 Between now and Q4 release in early june some very ta$ty dips will present themselves. Present sp is good ,but as a buy in at the moment its too high. Patient/patience is the modus operandi as the possibility of this sp $inking further towards £10.50ish/lower is a distinct possibility. The professional traders love volatility and lots of money to be made. Some recent comments have suggested that Fed might have to resort to Q4!/I wonder what kind of bets their trying to influence, If markets react positively to Fomc then AHT may go £orth for awhile,but will be short lived. Some traders are hoping for a correction as markets are high. I am getting used to a new computer with windows 8 and one puts valuable time in contributing to a post just to see it disappear with a small keyboard mistake,its a bitc* Be carefull with any sensitive online tasks. Good day investing to all.
Editorial Comment: ''IEA expect storage situation to improve in 2nd.half of 2015 when growth in US production levels is expect to slow'' Analyst comment: '' The Fed will likely enter a new phase of the monetary policy cycle,we expect the Fomc to drop the 'patient' language which would mean that from june onwards every meeting is in play for a potential rate increase'' Portfolio manager comment: ''The Fed will increase rates in probably September as they know for purely practical reasons they need this very important tool in their toolbox in case a shock comes down the line,and presently their shock toolbox is empty,and the rate increase will be miniscule'' US data today: building permits feb housing starts feb treasury 3m/10yr EU data: cpi new car registrations zew survey Germany data: zew survey Draghi/ECB pleased that EU growth recovery is on track. Mondays US data release was below par and will take off pressure on Fed to increase rates as one trader put it. AHT sp with URI followed the decline in oil and the decent rise in Ftse100/S&P 500 had no influence.So I suppose more oil companies will go under and more service revenue to rental companies goes up in smoke. AHT sp could and probably will fall further but for sure its not going to shoot north at any great pace in the foreseable future. Its possible range will be about £10.50 to £11.50 for next month! Good day investing to all.
Portfolio manager comment: ''volatility in stock market rose since the end of taper last October,which we see as the first de facto tightening. We see modest returns for 2015 and the likelihood of more choppy trades is high'' ''Interest rate hike may wait till next year due to lack of wage growth,overall slack in labour market and the fragile global economy'' ''market reaction to the eventual hike will be measured'' ''Fed will probably remove the word 'patient' from the statement.But is likely to have a very deliberate wording to soothe the market in light of falling inflation and overseas developments'' Michigan consumer sentiment@ lowest level since novembe'14. Oil analyst comment: ''the lack of storage means they have to sell it and won't get the price they want.Lack of storage will drive oil lower'' ''the oil companies hedged their risk through futures contracts-say 70$/80$-they're still making money,so they keep on pumping'' ''the paper men are putting on record short positions that the price of oil will continue falling'' USA data Monday: treasuries 3m/10yr industrial production capacity utilization NY empire state index nahb housing index net foreign purchases UK datra: right move house price index cb leading economic index On the lead up to Wednesday there is a fair amount of data to be announced.All going well after Fed statement there should be a rally for awhile. AHT sp could be traded south-AT- and a fine buy in price would be ideal. Good day Monday to all
Analyst comments: ''turbulent couple of months ahead as nervous investors await Fed intentions,then stocks will bounce back strongly for the latter half of year'' ''once we get the first rate hike and the Fed gives details of their way forward,then investors will interpret that as economy can walk on its own without rates being at zero.Market then kicks off into a rally,with a good 4Q and Santa year end rally'' It is like a bungee jump at the moment,up one day and down the next. Oil analyst-City comment: ''we are seasonally at a time when refineries carry out maintenance globally and prices are weak and don't agree with IEA current assessment '' Like a bungee jump past few days,however market is holding the AHT sp relatively steady.I would like too see it $lide more and present a decent buy in price as market will probably rally after the Fed deliver their guidance on the future road ahead. Good and safe weekend to all
Editorial comment: ''ECB began purchasing debt with negative yields this week.But per ECB rules can't buy securities yielding less than its deposit rate of minus 0.20%. German notes maturing in april 2018 were no longer eligible for ECB buying on Tuesday as their yields dropped to minus 0.23%.Its like ECB is chaseing its tail says Soc Gen in Paris. Wednesday bundesbank could have bought 2018 notes.Today it needs to go out to 2019.The universe of buyable bonds is melting like snow in the spring sun says Soc Gen. A nominal amount of 1.17trillion euros in bonds or around 25% of total eligible government securities is yielding less than zero according to Soc Gen. On Tuesday benoit coeure-executive board member of ECB-says we will be able to meet our targets for buying government debt.He goes on to say that while the effective supply of eligible securities is undoubtedly lower than the total amount outstanding ,I do believe it will still be substantially higher than the amounts we intend to purchase'' ECB executive board member-benoit coeure-comment: ''we may face a scarcity of bonds but we won't face a shortage'' isn't that a beauty Good day Friday to all
Editorial comment: ''markets shake off anxiety and lived as if there was no tomorrow or next week'' ''they're still concerned that rate increases will be either premature or of a magnitude that will have an adverse effect on economic activity'' Jobless claims well down Retail sales less than expectations Oil resumed slide and at 6 year low. Deutsche bank/Santander fail Fed stress test Analyst comment: ''Banks are now capitalised and Fed wants to make them more profitable and that means that a rate hike is not far away'' USA data Friday: ppi feb core ppi feb michigin sentiment-prel march treasuries3m/10yr No UK data releases. Germany data Friday: wholesale price index Good day Friday to all
USA closing bell comment: ''stocks get an A for effort but they never managed to recover from Tuesdays brutal sell off'' Analyst comment: ''next weeks Fomc remains a heavy cloud over wall street'' ''market hasn't yet priced Fed rate hike'' US 2nd phase of bank stress test due for release sometime after closing bell. US growing crude surplus presents significant storeage problems and could send a barrel of oil to$30 . AHT sp came up nicely today and good to see where the market kept it at approx.£11 base during sell off.The bargain hunters might sell it off again Monday/Tuesday as it may be fairly choppy approaching Fomc. USA data Thursday: retail sales February import/export various businesses inventories January initial claims Bloomberg consumer comfort index UK data: rics housing trade balance boe quarterly bulletin Good day investing thursday
Market strategist comment: ''sell off is based on legitimate worries that could impact a big swath of market due to strong dollar and its impact on US businesses with exposure overseas'' ''we don't have systemic risk.Lets not forget that consumer sentiment is strong and the banking system has plenty of cash this is not 2008'' '' a downturn following a huge rally is completely normal.Stay the course and wait for the inevitable big rally'' Economic advisor comment: ''the main issue facing a lot of investors today is whether to chase the momentum created by new QE in Europe or to adopt a more relative portfolio approach,I advise the latter.Focus on specific stories on the equity market.This is not the time for a general beta trade. Europe's current round of QE is unlike the Feds actions that pumped up US markets'' Market analyst comment: ''Markets continue to price in the assumption that next weeks Fomc could see a rate hike signal from Fed,furthermore they are not comfortable sitting on zero as a norm'' General sentiment is that market turbulence will continue into next week as investors give their portfolios a haircut up to Fomc. With Ftse well down on the day the AHT sp held on as well as the sound construction companies like bdev,tw etc with only a small slip. AHT sp I think will continue south up to next weeks Fomc.Looking forward to a ta$ty buy in price when everything settles down and investors have a clearer picture of things and the market gets rolling again. Greece uncertainy is also contributing to the market anxiety. USA data today: crude oil inventories mba mortgage applications treasury budget statement UK data: industrial production manufacturing production Good day investing to all
Market comment: ''...to us the greater near term danger may be somewhat more prosaic:a more aggressive Fed'' ''...removal of the patient reference at the Fomc march meeting could trigger further re-pricing in market expectations for interest rate hikes'' Editorial comment: ''low oil will be a boost to economy/ job growth and will create 630000 new jobs'' ''euphoria is what kills a bull market,it has not surfaced yet'' ''Today is the 6th anniversary of the bull market and the third longest since 1929'' ''What Fed/Yellen wants to know from banks this week-stress test-can they make losses and still funuction,that is buy back stocks,pay dividends and make acquisitions'' Greece is on the menu again. AHT sp should slip more into high £10 and I suppose after Fomc may start going £orth again!,some good value prices may present themselves and probably will. USA data Tuesday: wholesale inventories jan treasury bills/notes 3m/10yr fed funds rate jolts job openings UK data: brc sales monitor France data: industrial output Good day Tuesday to all
I agree with some of the previous posts that this is an O.K level to buy, judging by the charts and the newsflow.
Trader comment on fridays sell off: ''with these job figures the fed is behind the curve and hike will come in june'' ''when you see utilities selling off that is an over reaction to a Fed multi hike scenario,buy utilities'' ''the sell off was programme traders taking this opportunity to get out of market'' ''the average person should buy good companies as this sell off is a buying opportunity,always hold on to good companies as its not very smart having to buy them back at some stage at a much higher price'' USA data Monday: treasury bills/notes/3m/10yr fed funds rate EU data: euro group meeting balance of trade-Germany current account-Germany retail price index sentix investor confidence
Editorial comment: ''...in a sign that investors are expecting a close run election,a gauge of the volatility of the £ over the next 6 months rose to a 2 1/2 year high in february'15. The cost of options to protect against a weaker pound relative to $ also reached the highest since june'12. Sosciete Generale analysts said in a report this week that an exit from EU might trigger a 20% decline in the FTSE 100 by the end 2017. Brexit barometer put chances at 17%. It's a huge decision and one that will affect Britain in more ways than many can imagine.Say products/merchandise large and small are subject to strict EU standards.Cars for example,would Britain be able to valuably contribute to legislation,design,innovation and tech for cars in the future it it does not have a seat at the table. Executives and investors say the prospect of an EU exit would hit confidence in stocks,bonds and the pound as well as push some companies to freeze spending. A referendum opens up uncertainty about the future of the UK economy and its relationship with Europe which is potentially destabilising for investment said Investec asset management in London.Markets don't like uncertainty and this uncertainty would be of the serious elk''.
City london comment: ''...whilst the FTSE100 index climbed to another record on Thursday,traders are betting the relative calm won't last. They're paying the most in 3 years for options hedging against price swing$ in the next three months relative to one month contracts'' On the menu is volatility $oup cpr'd with cream and $alt! 1. Fomc 18th march with the possibility of a rate hike 2.Oil price bouncing 3.$trong dollar 4.Greece 5.UK election uncertainty 6.EU referendum 7.Ukraine/pukin 8.EU election and austerity parties 9.Geopolitical out of the blue AHT sp will probably $lide under £11 and $ettle about £10.60 ish The lower the price of URI/and AHT the smart money will be going long-$ound fundamentals But Ed Milliband will be lead us through...... and a voice boomed from the heavens ''Jesus wept''