The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring financial educator and author Jared Dillian has been released. Listen here.
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nows his stuff
Analyst comment: ''Some companies are beating expectations by a narrow margin,but even the ones that are missing estimates are not punished as much because of the low interest rate environment'' USA data Friday: durable goods treasury bills/notes EU data: eurogroup meeting/Greece!! german ifo United Rentals CEO says after Q1 release that commercial construction will remain on an upward trajectory and that institutional construction will reverse to a gain in 2015 and climb again in 2016 with reference to data/survey recently compiled and is welcome for markets like health,education and public safety. He states that the fundamentals of the rental industry are very strong going forward. With the robust Q1 performance despite the decline in upstream oil/gas and the harsh winter impacting in branch closures,delaying projects etc,URI coped well and the market takes note. Also a robust endorsement on Q 4 earnings that will be released by Ashtead/Sunbelt in mid June. The market should now move AHT sp up into low £12 With improving weather and greater demands for rental equipment,rates should also rise. Fed being accommodative will also benefit generally. Good day investing to all
Editorial comment: ''For the past 30 years Q1 GDP has always come in weaker compared to remaining Q's,and 2014 GDP was -2.1 and have always come in lower than Wall Street's estimates,and irrespective of whether economy was in expansion or contraction'' USA data Thursday: new home sales pmi manufacturing preliminary Bloomberg consumer comfort index initial claims treasury notes/bills EU data: pmi's Eurozone france pmi's Germany pmi's UK data: retail sales AHT sp may start to move £orth again into high £11+ for awhile
Market comment: ''Disappointing earnings drag on overall markets'' URI Q1 data beat Wall Street estimates. Market sentiment is that equities will continue to be bullish for investors. USA data: crude oil inventories existing home sales house price index mba mortgage applications EU data: consumer confidence indicator UK data: boe interest rate minutes Good day investing to all
United Rentals came through with a $olid Q1 with record revenue EBITDA and ROIC eps per diluted share Q1 2015 = $1.34 Q1 2014 = $0.90 adjusted ebitda Q1 2015 = $602 million (a company record) Q1 2014 = $519 Outlook for 2015 mostly unchanged w1th a rental rate increase of about 3% They also plan to open about 18 new speciality locations. They also expect construction activity to pick up significantly. The headwind of upstream oil/and gas activity cut backs were managed well by URI and rental equipment from this sector were deployed to other locations/sectors of higher demand. Estimated utilization of rental fleet for remainder of 2015 remains unchanged at 70% A decent Q1 and also gives a good signal on our own Q4 release in mid June. The share prices of URI/AHT should pu$h further £orth tomorrow and hopefully it will be a good day for the markets
Analyst comment: ''...Expect Chineses growth worries and Greek debt to remain at forefront early in the week,with domestic data taking the torch from international events later in the week''... Market strategist comment: ''ETF's following QE to China and Europe'' ''...Sell on rallies and buy on declines''... USA data Tuesday: treasury notes/bills EU data: zew survey Germany zew survey EU AHT sp heading for £11 high Recent broker fcst is approx. £14 and overweight Good day Tuesday to all
Some say correction on the way.the 'old hands' of Wall Street say 'NO'/volatility,Q1 season. Some media state that ECB/banking authorities have suggested to banks to shed Greek sovereign debt. Greece have not as recently provided the reform structures required by EU and Grexit appears on. EU with QE has plenty of liquidity and market reaction will be minimal as analysts predict. Choppy week with US PMI and Durable Goods combining with Q1 earnings Good day investing all
Editorial comment: ''Market falls on Greece worries,higher CPI/hike/stronger dollar,china beefing up its stock market regs and Bloomberg outage all contributing'' ''Greek finance minister playing a dangerous game of chicken with IMF'' USA data Monday: chicago federal reserve national acrivity index (current level -0.1 / comes in higher will be bullish for dollar and bearish for us indices) treasury notes/bills EU data: Germany ppi City comment: ''European equity markets took their cues from bond markets which are pricing in a Greek default and traders are running for the hills'' ''Greek finance minister could end up like Icarus as he flies to close to the Sun'' Market could $lide more and some some very ta$ty opportunities will present themselves Good investing all
Market comment: ''Stocks give up all gains by closing bell as weaker economic data pressured and worries over Greece's future lingered''. ''German finance minister does not see any resolution of Greece's debts being sorted at next meeting of eurogroup'' USA data Friday: cpi core cpi leading indicators Michigan sentiment treasury notes/bills EU data: balance of payments current account cpi Recent analyst comment on URI is bullish for a good Q1 but to oil producer slow down they see a rangebound sp near term but are satisfied with long term risk/reward-buy
....''the 1% crowd'' pay 29% of Federal Taxes the highest payers in USA, but its a volatile source as the taxes are linked to markets revenue''... This AHT has been a DIP dream machine all year so far,don't forget to hoover up the dips Good and careful day investing to all
Portfolio manager comment: ''Analysts have been lowering corporate earnings estimates at a steady clip creating an overvalued market susceptible to a correction of about 10/15% which now seems more likely than it has been for several years'' ''Oil will be volatile but will rebound long term'' USA data: housing starts building permits initial claims Bloomberg consumer comfort index Philadelphia fed treasuries bills/notes UK data: rics housing market survey AHT moving along with URI which has gained about 4$ since last week Market comment is that as we approach Fed hike volatility will kick in again-maybe September! Good investing all
Economist comment: Lemon Juice/bubble/secular stagnation ....''we do have an excess of supply over demand.We have been on the demand side of the equation for a long time,the emerging economies like china have been on the supply side,they are the producers,so the world needs to re-balance and re-align and get more demand out of the producers and less demand out of the excess consumers like the USA and we need to live within our means and countries like china need to step up and stimulate internal private consumption,and they have just begun that process. We need to wean ourselves from the temptation to juice up our asset markets to derive temporary satisfaction from bubble induced economic growth''
Market analyst comment: ''To a large degree,equities remain an earnings-driven market and at present earnings for the broad market are trending lower so the next few weeks will be telling' USA data Wednesday: capacity utilization industrial production feds beige book net foreign purchases ny empire state index crude inventories treasury bills/notes mba mortgage applications EU data: balance of trade Germany cpi france cpi ecb interest rate decision and press conference AHT looking fiesty and heading for £11.30ish IMF downgrades outlook for US economy.
Economist comment: ...''when interest rates go up we will have difficulty in dealing with another piece of bubble induced economic activity as we are doing right now,the debt overhang is there,the inability of the economy to generate sustained job growth and income generation through normal economic fundamentals remains a profound problem for the US economy''... QE has made the wealthy wealthier and the idea being that it creates wealth that spills over into the real economy. The Hamptons real estate rental is red hot where the ''1% crowd'' spend! 45,000$ on a vacation house. Global stocks are now worth 70 trillion$ No hard landing for Chinese economy and 5% growth forecast for 2015. Oil to be back at 70$ at year end. Iran will need 6/12months to sort themselves if agreement is OK with US congress. URI short interest has increased by 23% in recent days. Total short interest in floated stock is now over 10% URI Q1 release is scheduled for 22nd. April
Editorial comment: ''Many of the largest S&P 500 companies report this week and a factor that underscored much of the trading on Wall Street this pm'' ...'''two lingering issues face the market which are weak earnings expensive valuations''.... USA data Tuesday: ppi core ppi retail sales retail sales ex-auto treasury notes/bills UK data: cpi EU data: Eurozone industyrial production
$pike in volume on Friday will be betting on URI Q1 But with market still looking for direction any flat figure from URI could see its sp go $outh and drag AHT with it and decent buy in prices will present themselves. A good URI result the sp may not move too much and fall back again Good day investing to all
''when you squeeze too much juice from lemon'' should read ''when you TRY to squeeze too much juice from the lemon'' China data disappoints Election trail ''flat''like a can of flat beer A UK run by Labour and the Red Mist! Jesus Wept
Economist comment: ....''We have opted through QE for financial engineering through bubbles that provides some temporary gratification, but ultimately comes back to bite you with a recession when you squeeze too much juice from the lemon that occurs with the bursting of the bubble and we are in a bubble right now'' Good day investing Monday to all
Equities strategist comment: ''Market to remain largely range bound until we get further into earnings seqson'' ''Last week's decent jolts number and jobless claims at cycle lows,say we should not get too excited about a slowing economy'' ''...if earnings don't pick up,then latetr spring and early summer will be volatile''... USA data Monday: treasury budget treasury notes/bills EU data: france current account balance italy industrial production japan ppi china trade balance Has anybody seen Putin? when will he break loose again. AHT sp went south of lower Bollinger on Friday and then spiked on a largely bigger volume.Might reach £11 and fall back again on profit taking.
Wilson Rental Centre is located in Corning,NY
In April Sunbelt acquires Wilson Rental Centre a single location construction equipment rental company with a 35 year history catering for contractors,industry and homeowners. AHT sp slid under £10.50 on Friday before recovering and spiking up before closing bell.But there are two months left befotre Q4 release in mid June and sp could easily and probably will fall into low £10. FTSE and DAX at all time highs and CAC at highest level since 2000 there will! probably be a pull back. UK election uncertainty and Greece outcome will influence. But with QE and loads of money pouring into European equities from acro$$ the pond the only direction is up and awa£ But AHT has a significant debt risk as per Stanard & Poors recent analysis and has a 'BB' rating on AHT and has placed rating from 'positive' to 'stable' A lot of bounces await us.But any buy in price from £10.50 to low £10 would be a great value investment. Price will get steady again about a month before Q4 and increase to £11high. URI Q1 release on 14th April will be interesting on how market responds to a po$itive first quarter. A disappointing Q1 will be cra$h time and over reaction! and a great buying opportunity,AHT will also feel the heat. Before Q4 investors will be pouring into AHT again
US construction industry added 29000 jobs in February. January's construction job estimate was revised upwards from 39000k to 49000 jobs.
Despite weather and fluctuating oil prices non-residential construction edges up in February 2015. Non-residential construction added 12000 new jobs in February,with non-residential speciality trade contractors and non-residential building adding to employment and heavy and civil engineering reducing. Non-residential construction spending in the 12 months to early March was 614 billion $ and 4.8% higher year on year.
London property group St.Mowden in a 50/50 partnership with French multinational Vinci have secured planning permission for the project New Covent Garden Market which is a 10 year £2 billion+ regeneration development and will be a boost to the wider economic regeneration plans for London. It will comprise apartments,shops and offices etc Work commences this Summer.
Fed central bank chief comment: ''Fed should look for a little more proof than usual that labour market is tightening'' Market comment: ''With the stronger dollar,low oil and commodity prices and slower economic growth have created uncertainty with investors on the impact on S&P 500 companies'' ''The dollars strength will weigh on import prices for months to come and potentially staying the Feds hands on interest rates'' USA data: import/export price index treasury budget statement UK Data: industrial production manufacturing production London city comment: ''Interest rate increase will probably be early 2016'' Recent broker fcst for URI is $116 and is fairly steady at the moment with a $1+ rise on closing bell yesterday. AHT sp kind of holding its own around £10.60ish. URI Q1 earnings release on 14th April will give more direction and they should be OK Good day investing to all