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I agree that CB does spread himself rather thinly across a number of companies. In terms of potential the assets here could turn out to be the most lucrative of them all imo
Everything is far too slow across all projects run by Bird across several companies.
The potential here is huge but he does need to get on with things in Namibia.
SP hit 3.25p a short while back following a flurry of news from the projects in Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia. It was the 'fear' of the (discounted) Placing that took the SP back down to 2p. In terms of the assets nothing has changed and I'm sure a lot of work has been going on behind the scenes and expect updates in the near future...
Yup, moves on very little volume. One positive update of majors financing and we'll get to 5p without much problem. Even at 5p its so undervalued its fkin crazy!
Potentially very significant assets and the fund raise out the way. Only way is UP....
Something big about to happen!
New tr1 holder
Barrick on the lookout in Zambia
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/barrick-ceo-wants-search-more-copper-zambia-congo-2023-07-07/
Yes I totally agree . When I read up on the detail of the agreement I saw that we ended up with 25% of the 80% of the afp Zambia that we hold.
By that point tho it’s got to the point of project financing for a potentially huge mine.
Say it was big and high grade , say 2mt at 4% copper and proved up it has enormous value, 20% of which is also pretty enormous .
My thinking would be that FQ would want us out relatively early if it was heading in that direction.
PS. Another way of looking at the fact that our stake reduces to 20% on a decision to mine is that we will have gotten to that point with zero dilution of our own equity. If you imagine what it would look like for a £5m market cap company to get to the same point on its own, I would say that the shareholders would be diluted at least the same amount or more by the raising of the money to fund the costs of getting to a decision to mine. So there’s ultimately dilution either way. The massive benefit of our JV arrangement is we’re not taking any of the risk!
Cyber, you’re right that if we get to a decision to mine we’re going to be holding 20%. However, if First Quantum have decided to mine it we are in my view going to be looking at a project value of $1 billion or more - quite possibly much more. Another possibility is FQ find a good copper deposit but not big enough for them. In that case, the project will be worth less but our interest will be greater. Either way, I’m very comfortable that if a viable discovery is made we will be in line for a massive profit here
Had a look at that twitter thread metal head, a good analysis of what we have, thanks
As you point out Ongombo on its own will provide multiples of the current market cap and we are now funded to get it going.
The Zambia western foreland is anyone’s guess for the upside but First Quantum are very busy on our licenses and they wouldn’t be doing that for fun. Our interest does drop as they progress to the point of being able to plan and build a mine but I’m sure they would want rid of us a lot sooner should they believe they have a whopping resource on their hands.
Another small top up for me today, nothing huge but looking to try and accumulate a few over time before it hits the radar
Decent thread MH. Cheers. This has gone into my buy low as you can and forget about section of my account lol. It’s got 3 good chances of something transformational happening.. which is more than many micro caps. Let’s see what happens this year now they’ve funded.
You make an interesting comparison with ARC - which l also own - l have to admit in valuation terms AFP does look the more attractive. Equally as l learnt with XTR and Bushranger, best to spread risk over multiple projects and locations. In the end they are all just holes in the ground until mining starts.
Thanks metalhead. I had no problem accessing. Read well to me. Agreed completely of the radar - which is kind of nice as l slowly top up. For me it is the FQ exploration which is the most interesting part.
Hi all. I’ve done a long twitter thread on AFP. Check it out: https://twitter.com/metalhead2525/status/1675019357078814721?s=46&t=Jne_cUYLxmaxpafySDDQ2A
All comments welcome
In line with my strategy I’ve been buying today. Buys at 2.188 and 2.098. Pausing to see what happens next
Must admit I have been watching this for a while and hit a few last week around the 2.3 mark. Not huge qty’s but for putting in to a SIPP seems a good opportunity.
If it goes to between 2-2.2 I would grab a few more as excited to see what the future holds
Defo potential buyers currently on the sidelines but don't want to pay above Placing price. SP slowly dropping, just need a little more patience imo...
If those trades at 2.26 were both buys then friday looks like all buys and some decent values, encouraging
Had a few more at 2.26 yesterday.. close enough for me
Its taking a while but we're slowly drifting down towards the Placing price. As long as we don't have any (positive) news next week we should be able to buy at around 2.2p....
Doesn’t mention Kalahari but I guess Zambia and ongombo are the ones likely to lead to interesting action/ results over the next 6 to 9 months