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AEX should correct any timing of the 3D results if it's different from their previous guidance. Assuming it will be released this week or next week.
Don’t know if they’ve changed any energy policy prosiccuto but it is stated in the Tanzanian news 14/12/23, the first 100km of pipes have arrived in Dar e Salam.
For the 3D results we'ere looking at an upgrade of gas in place and confirmation of 8TCF estimated on 2D by ARA Petroleum. Deeper channels and lobes extending further than imaged in 2D can increase this further along with the deeper Jurassic target being imaged by the 3D, which can indicate the fluid properties and whether it's oil generated from the source rocks.
Highlights of the week
" I understand that the first pipes for the Ugandan/ Tanzania oil pipeline have arrived, Better get a move on going to need gas to heat it." 1. Baramara
Did they change their Solar energy agenda?
" FWIW RJ, I think He1 are really struggling to get the quantum of funding they need and even if they do it will come at the cost of HUGE dilution akin to the AEX dilution when selling out to AGRA for a song; the two companies are in exactly the same position - neither having a pot to p iss in and requiring a "white knight" to ride in and save them - but at a "fire sale" price of course...." 1. CrustyPete
Yes, very insightful.
Orca Energy Group has over US $100 million in cash. It is highly unlikely that Orca would be interested in either of these two eunuchs. Perhaps, it could become interested at a really deep " fire sale" price.
= = = = = = = = = =
Whatever happened with the workover for Ntorya -1? Whatever happened with the well testing for Ntorya -2?
With these cascading delays, deliberately fabricated or otherwise, things could turn for the worse. Aminex has boxed itself into a corner.
ARA Petroleum will survive but can Aminex survive as a 'going concern' with these perpetual delays? The Gov't of Tanzania tends to be reactive instead of proactive and as a consequence, is notorious for slippage of timelines. Time is of the essence and Aminex does not have plenty of it to spare.
Take a look at what's happening over at Helium1
" In undertaking this costing exercise the Company has been cognisant of the contingency funding that may be required given the significant additional costs and time delays encountered during the drilling of Tai-3. " Helium1 Dec 5, 2023.
The term 'implosion' seems the most appropriate term as it applies to Helium-1. For anyone capable of reading a balance sheet, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. This is what happens when you run out of funds. Aminex is getting damn close to that same day of reckoning. ARA Petroleum will most likely throw Aminex a lifeline but at what cost? ARA's duty to alleviate Aminex' financial distress is embedded within a 'conflict of interest' screenplay. A fragile and financially weakened Aminex makes for an easy prey, and they know it.
Since inception, Aminex has been nothing but one big disappointment after another.
" And nothing to look backward with pride;
And nothing to look forward to with hope." 1. Robert Frost
Aminex should follow the same path as Wentworth did. Carpe diem by encouraging the company to search for a strategic alternative. Be hopeful of a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
Wonderer
Am wondering whether your years are right below?
Although it seems that way there has been progress made on several fronts.
First the GSA and FDP has been agreed by all parties. We are just waiting for official ratification from 2 different gov departments.
The gas pipeline wasn't part of the original plan so its a bonus hence CH-1 being decoupled from its completion.
The 3d seismics have been completed and analysed. The new timelines and targets given should be ignored imo and we should revert to the old ones.
It looks to me like everything was brought forward on an optimistic time frame but in reality everything will most likely be completed on the old one, give or take a month or two.
So first Gas Q4 2024 will probably be Q1 2025 with 3d seismic results in Q1 2024 followed by CH-1, NT-1 & NT-2 in Q2 and Q3.
Pipeline completion will probably be late Q4 2024 with testing lasting a month followed by First Gas Q1 2025.
Fingers crossed we have a cracking year next year and AEX becomes the talk of the town and gets its 15 seconds of fame.
The thought police have been out in force today jollyboy
Weird! Was 4 on the PC and still only 4 plus our 2, on the mobile. 🤔
All there; for me at least RJ...
Has somebody been fighting in the playground? 14 posts it says and only 4 visible
News tomorrow about huge reserves upgrade would be nice. Or next week. Come on Aminex.. give us the results of the 3D seismic.
Prices = proves
But not much delivered. Here's hoping that at long last 2024 prices to be different!
Atb,
Northern
Surely not?
The results of the 3D seismic and CPR are promised aren't they?
Nothing ‘til April ‘24 then?
As it looked like drilling wasn't happening in December as planned, whilst some of my other stocks have been getting action, I've been ignoring this one for a bit, but decided to do a quick check on progress. I have just seen the below but not sure if it was posted on here before. Has there been any reporting of what was agreed?
TPDC, IECs table next year’s plan for approval
24th Nov, 2023
The Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) and its partners (International Energy Companies – IECs) have started presenting their work plans and budgets for the year 2024 to PURA for approval.
The presentation takes place in special meetings organized by PURA, meetings that offer the tripartite (PURA, TPDC, and IECs) a vital platform to discuss the implementation against the approved plan for the current year and proposed activities for the subsequent year.
Speaking at the opening of the first meeting held recently in Dar es Salaam, the chairperson of the work plan and budget committee Eng. Fabian Mwose from PURA said the meetings are crucial to both the Authority and companies since the parties get to dive deep into proposed activities and develop a common understanding among them.
“The meetings are fundamental in setting the basis for monitoring planned activities in the coming year. It is also an opportunity to assess this year’s performance and draw lessons through which TPDC and operators can deploy to enhance performance.” added Fabian.
This year’s meetings will see eight (8) companies seeking the Authority’s approval of their plans, a critical step before implementing any activities in the subsequent year.
The companies are Maurel et Prom Exploration Production T Ltd (the operator of Mnazi Bay Block), PanAfrican Energy Tanzania Ltd (the operator of Songo Songo Block), Equinor Tanzania AS (the operator of Block 2) and Shell Exploration and Production Tanzania Limited (the operator of Blocks 1 & 4).
Others are ARA Petroleum (the operator of Ruvuma Block), Ndovu Resources Limited (the operator of Kiliwani North Block), Dodsal Hydrocarbon and Power Ltd (the operator of the Ruvu Block) and Octant Energy Tanga Limited (the operator of the Tanga Block).
TPDC as a license holder, is a partner in every Block, therefore, it participates in all meetings. The Ministry of Energy is taking part as an observer.
Approval of the work plan and budget is one of the responsibilities conferred to PURA through section 12(2)(d) of the Petroleum Act, 2015.
https://www.pura.go.tz/news/tpdc-iecs-table-next-year-s-plan-for-approval
Having followed this company for the last 5 years I can see progress is being made albeit slowly.
Obviously Covid slowed things right down but nevertheless we are on the precipice of making a lot of ground over the next year.
Everything is in place now for ARA to hit the ground running. The GSA has been agreed with TPDC and so has the FDP.
The change in the location of CH-1 has also been agreed with long lead items all ordered. The silence is reflective of the company waiting for the relevant authorities to sign on the dotted line.
Once that happens it's all systems go until then we have to wait patiently.
I'm hoping the Gov get a move on and give all AEX holders a nice Xmas gift. Then we can look forward to CH-1 being drilled followed by NT-1 and NT-2 workovers.
Also hoping we get 3D results and updated CPR too this year but that would be asking for too much
Well I've often wondered what they plan re the workover at NT-1, we know the well hit the very edge of the Ntorya gas field with only a 3 metre net pay zone, and floweg gas 20mmcfd. als they were planning to side-track the well into a thicker part of the pay zone to try to increase the flow, that was before they decided to drill the NT-2 well.
So maybe they're planing a side track for NT 1 to increase the gas flow ?
Just to be clear, I'm not directly involved in drilling but being in my position I am privy to the ins and outs and have picked up alot over the years.
Winalot reading on your post at 9:03. Thanks for pointing that out. That means the mobile rig could be overkill. Good to have some direct drilling knowledge on board.
Great insights winalot thanks
Winalot Crusty, apologies I got my wells mixed up
There is that Crusty, pressure was a concern you are right, but they did say a small mobile unit was all that would be required for getting it to flow for the pipeline.
The way that reads, after all the repairs that have been done, I would think if could do the job, but hey ho its hypothetical until it happens.
Meanwhile we wait
Understood, thanks win.
Forgot to mention the possibility of additional equipment for the actual well testing (route to flare), but again I don't think this needs an actual drill rig.