Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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I'll go for 3tcf. People thought we would be starting drilling this month, I thought possibly the second month of 2024 but am now starting to think we will be in Q2 2024 before we get the drilling started. The Tanzanians don't help themselves by dragging their feet. I've learned this from past experience it's not what the Tanzanians say it 's what they do that really counts and like a few posters have said on here(also proved by experience here) the longer there is no news we see a corresponding drift down in price. There is talk of significant progress on all fronts but that's just talk would be great to see some action.
Atb,
Northern
Edgar, can you explain why the RPS CPR of Dec 2018 is 1.87tcf yet APT have it at 8.34 in May 2021? Surely both were looking at the same previous data (2d's) as nothing was done between those years, yet vastly different estimates?
Look at page 11 of the attached presentation for the historic increases in estimates.
http://admin.aminex-plc.com/uploadfiles/2023%20AGM%20Presentation%20130723.pdf
Very significant increases included. More than doubling previous estimates on occasion.
I may have been too cautious. 18tcf please.
16 TCF for me, then that oil on top.
Not at all convincing winalot......
Poc, my comment of 2.36tcf (which should of said 2.86) was just off the back of Edgar's figure (25% net to AEX)
I have no figure in mind. I just hope it is at least the 8tcf identified by the 2d
I've been here long enough Tanzania to read the room.
You've just fell into the same trap with my comment that you thought I fell into. Dear oh dear indeed!
Winalot - fooled by Rj's sardonic stuff !!! Dear oh dear.....
Edgar 11.36 TCF
winalot 2.36 TCF Net to AEX (9.44 TCF Gross)
Alcapone 10 TCF
PageofCups 8TCF
Ave 9.7 TCF
Interesting.
That's the spirit Rojo ๐
I don't think there's too much to worry about. There's still nearly four weeks before 2024 - plenty of time for all the necessary bits to fall in place. Then we can concentrate on the 10p party ๐
well october came and went and here we are in december and still now fecking news.
no wonder the share price has drifted.
by the way that bid for 0.85 is me. ive pretty much got all i want in this stock but the way it all added up was an odd number so im plumping for another 80k to round it up. thes seems to be the best time as any and if it doesnt happen no skin off my nose.
so for those thinking in deramping im not and i do think the company will come up in the end.
im just ****ed at the silence and yet another date missed.
Last couple of sentences of this article are positive from Cop28
https://allafrica.com/stories/202312040426.html
There are a number of items regarding Ruvuma that are very close to completion. None of these items can be sorted out by AEX as they are not within its power. ARA are the operator and all agreements are their responsibility, although not all are within their power to sort either as they involve the Government. Here is an extract from the recent interim report:
โGas Sales Agreement ("GSA"), approved by all parties, is with the Attorney General of Tanzania for final review. It is expected to be signed in the coming month.
ยท The Field Development Plan ("FDP") for developing the Ntorya Area is approved by all parties.
ยท The relevant Tanzanian Authorities have approved the Development Licence for the Ntorya Area and, as required by law, it is with the Cabinet of Ministers for final approval. The issuance of the Development Licence significantly de-risks the project, locking in the development of Ruvuma for twenty-five years.โ
The first and last point require Government final signatures which are expected imminently. All LTH here are well aware that delays by Government have delayed this project for years but the new Government has said they have changed and will get things done. They have approved the sale by SCIP to ARA which will now enable the correct license holders names to go on the 25 year licence which is with the cabinet of Ministers for approval now.
News should land any day regarding the Government approvals following which everything else will quickly slot in place. Essentially no one is going to commit to anything else until all Government approvals are in place, which is sound business practice and common sense when you know the history.
I'll go 10tcf ... hopefully we get CPR published results before Xmas it's all gone very very quiet.Gas was supposed to be flowing by now and no updates on revised timings...ARA will only tell us when they are ready.
What is wrong with you Roger? I made no comment about the shareprice or AEX's potential - merely upticked MrMoi's comment about how petty and repetitive and tiresome so of the personalised bickering on here has become - and then you respond with a personal snipe at me! Case proven methinks. Added to my filter list.
Rather precise figure Edgar, 2.84tcf net to AEX.
That's worth 10p alone once we have a route to market.
11.36 TCF
Let's be more positive. What do we think of the gas in place figure will be based on the 3D seismic?
ARA have said 8Tcf. I'll go with that. They are the experts and have all the info..
Any thoughts?
Usually id agree with you but for RoJo I would make an exception. His repeated pointless bashing of aex and anyone positive about aex future is dull beyond belief.
Winalot, you have to understand that the seismic has been recalibrated to known gas reservoirs and therefore the data from the well logs tied to the seismic, hence the accuracy is proven. When ARA say they estimate 8tcf gross GIIP, it's not made up. The 3D is used more for optimal drill locations when developing the field. The 3D results will just give accurate assessment of total volumes across the entire licence area.
Aaah Bistow. They are all coming out today.
Seems their is a sniff of a lower buy in. Go on boys do your worst. I shall wait patiently for those opportunities
8tcf based on 2d siesmics doesn't necessarily mean 3d will confirm that or more, it swings both ways. Clearer 3d siesmics might confirm what they thought was there isn't actually as much as they thought.
Just to be clear, I'm hoping for the positive CPR. I'm just putting it out there, the other side of the fence, so don't shoot me down.
Where's our damn update!
Hear hear MrMoi. Massive Uptick.
Focus on the revised gas reserve and resource due by the end of the year. GIIP resource estimated by ARA to be 8Tcf based on 2D seismic.
"The entire 3D seismic data processed interpretation will be completed in Q4 2023, permitting a total revision of the gas reserve and resource potential for the field. Moreover, RPS Energy Consultants Ltd has been contracted to produce an updated CPR before the end of this year.