Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
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Wonderer
the RNS released in August 2021 was a long time ago... Are you sure there were no updates in between?
Https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/economists-advice-to-government-as-tanzania-welcomes-2024--4479350. Election year ...you would think they will want some positive news flow and a few photo opps
Wonoderer
Thank you. As I remembered it.
Leaky news today?
The gas is just bursting to get out here along with the sp. When it goes it goes..
Edgar the following is from the RNS released in August 2021
Aminex is pleased to announce that the Ruvuma joint venture has received an extension to its licence under the Ruvuma PSA from the Ministry of Energy of Tanzania.
The operator, ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT") secured the extension, which is valid for two years from 15 August 2021, and allows for the completion of the following:
· Acquisition of 200 square kilometres (surface coverage) of 3D seismic data
· Drilling of the Chikumbi-1 well
· Conclusion of negotiations of the Gas Terms for the Ruvuma PSA.
2 out of the 3 items have now been completed and CH-1 drill might be included in the 25yr Development License as you say, otherwise we should have heard of an extension by now.
The next update will be very telling and we should learn about how things are progressing.
Fingers crossed the GSA, FDP and Development License are signed off in Q1 and CH-1 gets green light to drill in March.
3D seismic results will probably be published alongside CPR Update in Jan with any luck.
For 24.Happy new year all...the year the worm turns hopefully.Gla all
...or that the moon is made of cheese.
Https://theconversation.com/snowfall-in-the-sahara-desert-an-unusual-weather-phenomenon-176037#:~:text=Snowfall%20in%20a%20hot%20desert,most%20recently%20in%20January%202022.
I'd wish all Aminex 'investors' a prosperous New Year but there's more chance of snow in the Sahara.
Wonderer
Agree with everything uou say so this is only a small quibble.
I don't expect CH1 to be a different licence regime to the 25 year development licence. It is all wrapped up together. Not separate. At least that is my understanding and expectation.
Not. Back to where we were a year ago, I really thought 2023 was going to be a big year, oh well. Plenty to come in 2024, hopefully!!
Wishing you all a Happy New Year, see you there.
I've been optimistic since SOLO days and have been lucky and wise enough to trade the swings there and here.
CH-1 location had been approved preliminarily and sign off was imminent 6 months ago, so we should hear about its official approval in Q1 with the next update.
APT has ordered the initial long lead items for CH-1 and have probably by now received the remaining items seeing as this was 6 months ago again.
The drilling of CH-1 was part of the license requirements when it was previously extended in August 21 and extended for 2 years.
So we might hear that it's again been extended for 1 year to allow AEX to complete its commitments and obligations under the license.
This is separate to the GSA, FDP and Development License which have all been agreed with essentially the Gov as TPDC is the Tanz Gov. So sign offs will be forthcoming, probably Q2 H1 if we're lucky or Q3 H2 the most likely case given how the Gov like taking the Michael.
In the meantime we can look forward to the updated CPR and possibly NT-2 workover in H1 followed by CH-1 drill rig Contract and spud with the rest to follow in H2.
Like everyone else I eagerly await with the patience of a saint whilst things are being progressed at a snails pace.
I love your optimism Wonderer.
However, ARA can't proceed with CH1 until the new location is approved by the authorities. You're also assuming they have a rig contract as that is the only way to proceed.
Even if they did have the above, would they proceed to spend millions of $$ without a GSA/FDP/ 25yr licence?? My personal opinion is that they are holding off doing anything until they get some confidence back from the authorities in the form of the above mentioned. Once they receive at least the GSA/25yr licence then it will be full steam ahead, as those 2 items give the company and AEX shareholders numbers to crunch, especially when we get the CPR, which I also think is a vital piece in the jigsaw holding things up.
We'll get there, eventually!
The only thing they can proceed with is the NT-2 well test. That is a mystery, as it was penciled in for last March.
They've already missed the deadlines they've set which were optimistic to say the least. The original plan had some chance of succeeding albeit with some delays expected as Tanz Gov love dragging their heels.
Whilst we await GSA, FDP and Development License, ARA can proceed with CH-1, NT-1 & 2 and release the 3D Seismic results which they've been sitting on for a while.
They probably release them with the updated CPR given how long they've had them. So at least we can look forward to the above progressing in 2024.
Been following these lot and others in Tanz for over 5 years so know not to get my hopes up but AEX is overdue a spike to 6p+ and it might come next year...
Then as usual reality will set in and it will continue as per usual until the next spike
If only wonderer. If only...
It's true the main rainy season comes in March but the road network to and around the town of Nanguruwe where CH1 will be located, is hard & black topped. As long as the rig is not coming from an un-roaded area, then there should be no reason other than lightening storms why they would not be able to drill throughout the rainy season.
Youshould go to Tanzania to have look.
people there not even has plenty house.only someof them made fromgrass
and tree leaves.some of house stop electriy every dat more than five times.special in raining season
I recall them drilling NT-2 in December through to February, so with long lead items all ordered and delivered, we could see an announcement for CH-1 drill rig selection in January with drilling aimed for March.
They have already re-selected the location for CH-1 following seismic results and preparations have been made for the pad.
All the paperwork is in order and has been submitted to the authorities with sign off due imminently.
The Tanz Gov have had plenty of time so we should hear something in the next month or so about GSA, FDP and the Development License. In the meantime we can look forward to 3D Seismic results and CPR Update.
The next update will be a comprehensive one given the radio silence.
We can all but hope that they announce drill rig selection with drill in March possibly May given weather and an update on sign off being complete for everything else.
It's been a long road to CH-1 being drilled and proving up the 2C 8tcf resource but it feels like it is actually going to happen in 2024.
Looks like the CPR will upgrade the resource and CH-1 is being moved to the sweet spot.
Jan to March should have plenty of news from CH-1 long leads items, drill rig selection, 3D seismics, CPR, and GSA, FDP, Development license all to be announced.
Let's not forget NT-2 and NT-1 too aswell as the pipeline so AEX has a very busy year leading up to First Gas which will probably be by Xmas 24 given this year has been spent on getting the GSA, FDP and Development license agreed with all parties concerned.
The TPDC is essentially the Tanz Gov so with everything being agreed the sign off is just a formality which hopefully we will see in the new year.
Well we are now into the kind of weather timing where the drill might not start until May. That would mean a plan of action and drill rig scheduled some time in Q1, possibly February(?) with Pura's budget sign off?
Tanzania rainy seasons:
"There are two rainy seasons—the heaviest rains (called masika) usually fall from mid-March to May, and a shorter period of rain (called vuli) occurs from November to mid-January. The dry season, with cooler temperatures, lasts from May to October."
Aminex list that were supposedly making good progress this year aren't going to be reported on this year for example the reserves CPR.
All I can take from that, objectively, is that progress is not as fast as anticipated and more delays, sadly lie ahead.
Like I've said many times before I will only believe in the progress reported when the drilling starts!
Hope 2024 proves to be better than 2023.
Atb,
Northern
He did attend the remedial class on three occasions prosciutto but didn't complete the course, let alone pass it.
Not one of my better students. He sat at the back, trumping and misbehaving. Very disruptive. I imagine bingo suits him better.
Not good enough for you RJ. What you want to hear is an impossible task, yes ? Your Messiah's slowly but surely falling on content. Why's is that ?
A "formidable task" ?
That's an understatement !
Cont'd
" A little neglect may breed great mischief ..... for the want of a nail, the shoe was lost: for the want of a shoe, the horse was lost: and for the want of a horse, the rider was lost." 1. Benjamin Franklin
Don't be a lost rider.
X
To: ;
12/26/2023 09:01 PM
0
Edit
Highlights of the week
" I understand that the first pipes for the Ugandan/ Tanzania oil pipeline have arrived, Better get a move on going to need gas to heat it." 1. Baramara
Solar Energy produces electricity which produces the heat for this oil pipeline. Natural gas is not required. Did they change their Solar energy agenda?
" at least 8TCF which was estimated by ARA as GIIP on the 2D seismic. Not sure how the gas can disappear. It's been drilled and proven to 3TCF. " 1. PageofCups
There is not even one cubic foot of 1P gas reserves.
= = = = = = =
Professor RoJo: re: your remedial class
Did you graduate this chap? You need to restart your remedial class. The level of knowledge needs to be elevated.
Teach them the difference between reserve and resource.
Teach them how useless 2D is ... nothing more than a model driven cartoon with many flaws in it in terms of reservoir disposition, updip, lateral and seat seal issues, sufficient charge focus, etc, etc.
Ask them how the 'Competent Person' of the 2018 CPR suddenly became 'Incompetent'?
Teach them about 1P, 2C, 3C etc and the meaning of the term "contingent". Also, make sure they know that 'Contingent' isn't worth a wooden nickel.
Teach them that revenue and profit are not the same. Yes, you have a student that thinks revenue is equivalent to profit.
Teach them how to read a balance sheet. Fundamentals do matter.
Teach them the danger of 'negative working capital'. They need to understand that If you can't pay the bills, you are in deep, deep trouble.
Teach them the difference entre 'reactive' and 'proactive'.
Teach them the danger as a non-operator... no say, no sway, no control over anything.
Did your beloved Tanzania pass this course? Also, sign up the "silly list" author .. the same jollyboy ramper of Helium One at > 9p.
Good luck with this formidable task.
= = = = = = = = = =
re: Helium One
" The term 'implosion' seems the most appropriate term as it applies to Helium-1. For anyone capable of reading a balance sheet, the writing has been on the wall for quite some time. This is what happens when you run out of funds. Aminex is getting damn close to that same day of reckoning." 1. prosciutto Dec 20, 2023.
The capital raise for Helium One was large as was the share price drop.... a 70% drop the very next day after my "implosion" warning. What similarities can you detect here?
============
This is a tough business environment in which to raise some cash. This doesn't bode well for Aminex. Any capital raise for Aminex may have to be at a lower price than anticipated. Perhaps, 2 billion shares at 0.5p will suffice.
Lesson: Do NOT neglect the balance sheet.
" A little neglect may breed great mischief ..... for the want of a nail, the shoe was lost: for the want of a shoe, the horse was lost: and for the want of a horse, the rider was lost.