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Well something certainly seems up...
A 33% rise on volume of 17 million so where is the RNS. What have you heard ?
Just wondering is Prosimodo's 30% is before or after the 30% rise XD
Here we go
I have heard some good news also!
Did somebody say GggSssAaa
Look out boys something good is coming down the pike..
Plenty of money waiting on the sidelines to buy once news lands. AEX is pretty illiquid. Hence, moves very fast. Its why the MM's always have a large spread to entice those desperate enough to sell low and those confident enough to pay a premium.
Plenty of newsflow to come to keep this heading higher. CpR update will increase resource significantly imo from 2Tcf to 8Tcf. Its not been mentioned by BoD previously for no reason and the reason why ARA claimed its back in rights to purchase Scorricco's 25% for peanuts.
Following this we are due an update on CH-1 drill rig announcement as all the long lead items would have arrived by now.
Ruvuma license was mentioned in Tanz Gov meeting in November as one of several licenses that is waiting to be issued, so expect GSA, FDP, and Development License to be issued in Q1 or latest early Q2.
AEX is carried up to $140m by which time they will be producing 140mmcfpd, that's 5000boepd net to AEX.
Half Year results demonstrated that the BoD were being very frugal and had $5m cash at the end of June 23.
With cash burn at $1.4m per annum, AEX has enough run way to cover G&A plus operational expenditure until mid 2026.
All the above puts AEX in a position to make some very big gains from CPR to First Gas..
Highlights of the week
" please stop filling the thread with patently hyper optimistic drivel." 1. apbristo
drivel ... good word.
" You should go to Tanzania to have look. people there not even has plenty house.only someof them made from grass and tree leaves." 1. 91 joyo
Question the morality of making a fortune off the backs of the poverty-stricken.
" As the current sp proves no amount of gas under the ground has a direct impact on the sp - reserves versus resources - without a GSA, a Pipeline, news on the workovers, drill contract etc it isn't worth much at all.... not in sp terms anyway." 1. CrustyPete
The peers forecast that, even with full production, Aminex' share price won't be worth much.
= = = = = =
Calculating the earnings even though there is no inflow of capital.
Let us assume Ntorya-2 is eventually brought online.
17 MMscfd, 25% interest, US $3.65 / mcf, 365 days /yr, > $4 million (G&A + minutiae), 4.123 557 000 Billion shares. ((17 MMscfd * $3.65/mcf * 365 * 0.25) - $4 million)) / 4.123 Billion = US $0.000403 /sh ( 0.000336 pounds/sh)
Aminex Earnings =~ US $0.000403 /sh. Not much to brag about but that is enough to send the rampers into a hyperbolic frenzy. Keep in mind, the Ruvuma breast-feeding with the free carry will last only so long and then the real costs kick in. You can easily sink US $500 million into Ruvuma.
This company is basically a 'proxy' company. It does not have a mind of its own. The company should not be considered to be independent. A gold-eagle coin it is not. This company is much closer to that of a castrated eunuch. They are going to need money. Cheap and free money without consequences, is a thing of the past. Do not expect them to raise money easily. The age of easy money is gone, and the shareholders will suffer the consequences.
The good news is that someone wants to maintain Aminex' 'going concern' status. Having said that, you should prepare yourself for further dilution. Any quick stock price movement will be met with inevitable exhaustion.
Be wary of the rampers whom you swim with.
" You don't know who's been swimming naked, until the tide goes out." 1. Warren Buffett
Encourage the takeover of Aminex. Be happy with a 30% premium to market and hope to hell the takeover will secure regulatory approval.
I expect so !
That you buying 60 shares Edgar. Lol
This opportunity has been in the making for years. Don't miss it.
...that is me done. Fully loaded.
Said that before though
So much news stacked up and overdue it can break any minute. The inevitable whoosh will be big. Easy 100%.
I’m down on my investment in scirocco, not in AEX! the reason being is that scirocco sold out to ARA.. nothing in life is guaranteed but I believe AEX will recover my losses and moreover make my investment profitable, if not I will simply move on in life.
4p would be great Baramara but sadly I don't expect anything close to that.
I'm down, but nowhere near as down as you.
This has been a huge disappointment.
Extraordinary !
You may be right, Northern.
But remember....the production and the appraisal are decoupled and running in parallel. I accept "crawling" more apt than running but there are two significant newsflow-laden streams that we are all waiting for. I continue to hope that the licence and works approvals will be the dam bursting. The bureaucrats out and the companies free to get on with it.
From 're the valuation of the gas and a valuation of Amines but there seems to be the theory and the practice with Aminex. Lth must appreciate that by now. Last year it almost seemed like a new start with the promise of substantial progress on a number of fronts but since then we haven't even had what should have been the easiest things on the list reported on the CPR.
If At a can't get that sorted it seems like we are back to where we were - the substantial progress has slowed and all this means sadly is more and more delays.
Last year I expected with delays drilling might start in February this year - now that like a total underestimate - possibly now we are looking at Q2 if not later.
Atb,
Northern
Wonderer
Our numbers are not too different. In my head I have £400m per 1 TCF in the ground. Billions if it could all be sold at once. Also based on Cove (don't know Char). Now bear with me while I fantasize.
4.8bn shares in issue last I checked. Ish. £400m is 8.3p per share. So 2 Tcf is 16.6p per share. 2 Tcf is also the gas net to Aminex based on the operator estimate.
At the moment Aex owns nothing because of the licence lapsing. So the market has put a value on the discovered gas (call it 0.5Tcf or 4.15p per share on the above basis) that is discounted to the headline gas numbers. Arguably when the licence is granted the gas in ground is 4.15p per share. Then, if that moves to 2TCf to Aminex after the CpR is announced that is worth up to 16p per share.
This is just another way of restating an old argument on here. The above is all based on reserves valuations as the Cove deal was (it had to be because the Cove gas was not being produced and still is not). Others will argue income based calculations are more correct. They will cite Wentworth and Orca. But here is the thing. I think the size of the Aex gas field is of strategic importance at anywhere between 2 - 8 Tcf. It will easily cover the domestic and industrial market even as that grows. It will then be used for export. It is massive. It is precisely the sort of field Majors will want, when proved up.
Even the above numbers are conservative I think and will increase as the gas gets closer to market.
But lets say I am wrong and you want income and p/e ratios. Whats the correct p/e? 10? 20? Even that produces many multiples of this share price. And that is underwritten by the massive reserves (which Wen never was).
For all those reasons I have increased my holding by 50% (in shares held) since the Scir deal was announced. Money where big mouth is. If I am wrong I am wrong but it will take a major disrupting and unforeseen event for me to be wrong now. Which is possible but not likely.
I ask again. What is the risk in holding Aminex? This is not discovery drilling. This is a proven field being appraised and the Company is fully funded.
(More fed up with the delays than I have ever bee, btw)
I’m just wondering if the siesmic’s concearning Orca, kiliwani have anything to do with the hold?
Just a quick note. All related parties have already seen the internal CPR. Hence, the GSA, FDP, and Development License terms have all been agreed with TPDC and are just awaiting official sign off from Tanz Gov officials.
The CPR being released to the market is not the internal one but an independent one which is why its taking a little longer and is now certainly overdue.
Expect GSA, FDP and Development License to closely follow the CPR release then CH-1 drill, NT-2 and NT-1.
You only need to look across to CHAR to get an idea of valuation. Their Anchois drill was targeting 2Tcf and upon appraisal drilling success were valued at £300m at one point.
As another reference point, Cove Energy were bought out for £500m per Tcf net. That was 10 years ago.
So AEX 2Tcf net is worth anywhere between £300-£1 billion. If ARA were to buy AEX out, they already own nearly 30% so it wouldn't take much for them to approve a takeover offer by buying more stock and going over the 30% whilst wavering the Takeover rules.
The fact they haven't so far suggests they see more value retaining their 30% in AEX and carrying it for its 25% up to $140m.
If a takeover offer were to materialise, it would be circa 4-5p which I think most here would be happy with.
ATB
Yes agree Baramara, let's see what the CPR brings, I think alot of the final decisions/agreements/signatures have been waiting on it.
That’s reassuring blackgold, don’t think it will either but it’s still a little niggling doubt.
I’ve been here 14 long years should’ve bailed out at 7p but always believed that it’s worth at least 14/15p. ( enough pressure to blow half Tanzania off the map).