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Hopefully it'll change as we're now at the bottom sp.
AEX is not in control of the news - and nothing else for that matter; it is not the operator, is totally reliant on ARA for news flow and has all of that news flow vetted by the Tanzanian authorities.
But wonderer as you very well know you do not go from 2C to 1p simply on the basis of a CPR..... you need a route to market and, as yet, there isn't one, though the GSA is a great advance (at long last)
Totally agree with you there Scott. The PR machine at AEX is broken and was last seen 4 years ago on Twitter.
Seems like it's become dormant as whoever had control of it hasn't posted anything since.
Edger... "It is then difficult to work out why the share had another peak at 11.5p on 9.11.20. Market absorbing the news? But in any event the delayed reaction (2 months) to the CPR upgrade is interesting. If that is the reason, it is difficult to see much else in the RNS news around that time."
They where heavy on the PR, releasing interviews on various platforms like proactive etc. Aex themselves will need to wake up and get the word out to highlight how good the potential here is. Especially after an rns just like this last one, in order to get that sort of rise.
Edgar
Excellent analysis and I was going to mention the dates to save you trawling through the RNS's but unfortunately didn't have the time.
What's clear is from CPR to Well results CHAR had a massive run and whilst we can't make exact comparisons it certainly gives you an idea of what can potentially happen here.
Jack
That's reassuring to know. I always thought AeX was AIM and not Main Market. Will attract some institutional buyers once over the £100m mcap level.
Chariot is an aim share whilst AEX is main market with advantages in a long bull run. Upland resources is main market whilst completely different in many respects it did go up from .125 of a penny over approx the last 18 months to 4p just before christmas a almost 36 fold rise. many investment companies don't touch aim shares but do consider main market shares no matter how low also I personally see AEX as a good sipp share as in years to come it could be a dividend paying share.
Wonderer
Just been looking at Chariot. Lots of caveats about looking for a comparator because every Company story is different and, for example, the Chariot acquisition of other (renewables) businesses does muddy the waters a bit. But.
I started at 3.9.20, share price 1.62p and looked between there and the peak on 3.5.22, share price 24p.
What is interesting is the way the share price reacted to news. On CPR upgrade of 148% the share price went up 2.7 times to 15.9.20. (Aminex upgrade to 8tcf is a x4 upgrade and therefore considerably bigger).
It is then difficult to work out why the share had another peak at 11.5p on 9.11.20. Market absorbing the news? But in any event the delayed reaction (2 months) to the CPR upgrade is interesting. If that is the reason, it is difficult to see much else in the RNS news around that time.
They announce a significant gas discovery in January 2022, 3 months before the peak in April. At that time the share price at 24p has gone up 14.7 times.
I have not looked at market cap, I was more interested in market reaction. But they had 379m shares in issue in May 2020 and 827m shares in Feb 2022. So the increase in market cap is more significant than the 14.7 times increase in share price.
If any lessons are to be learned from this it may be that this is an example of the market taking its time to get to the highest value after good news, both in 2020 and 2022 in Chariot's case.
Edgar
With all oil and gas companies I have always derisked prior to the Well results as with all drills they can go either way.
However I have held some like BCE and IOG after doing my research. This allowed for operational risk too.
Both delivered 300% and 450% returns respectively from their lows not my entry and exit points mind.
IOG barely had 400bcf but reached over £100m mcap yet AEX has 500bcf net currently and is only valued at £40m.
The CPR will change all this along with the Development Licence and news of CH-1 drill rig announcement.
P.S.....CHAR has 75% of 1.4Tcd 2C and 2U. With 600Bcf in 2U category.
AEX Currently has 500Bcf 2C which may be upgraded to 2Tcf by CPR
Winalot. Good point, but I think that will come along with the development licence. In fact the location change may possibly have been the cause of the delay in its issue as I am assuming planning and local approval had to be adjusted and dealt with.
Worry for poor old RJ out there on his own with CP set back to 'Buy'........ Everything he didn't want to happen !
Agree, and there's also that oil we may find.
The resource here is massive.
140mmscfd over 20 years will only consume ~ 1tcf of it.
If there does turn-out to be 8tcf recoverable then we will have to route the gas to LNG to consume the resource. There lies the potential massive upside
Wonderer
Really appreciate it. Anything to educate me on how to sell shares and Aminex in particular. They buying is easy. Will look properly but at first blush the Aminex numbers are bigger?
Edgar
Chariot Oil certainly makes for interesting reading and shows in real-time what hindsight will look like here.
They went from 2p to 25p on the appraisal of the Anchois discovery. If you look at the chart and corresponding news releases, you will see a big move in the sp on CPR upgrade and drill run up, to Well results.
The Well was originally targeting 300Bcf which was then upgraded to 1Tcf of which a significant amount (600Bcf) was 2U prospective resources and finally the whole field was again upgraded by another CPR to 2Tcf.
Chariot only had 75% of this license and the other 25% they carried their partner. Where as AEX currently holds 25% of potentially 8Tcf. The value of which hasn't yet been attributed as the CPR is yet to be released.
Once the CPR upgrade is released then this value will be attributed, then once the drill has been pencilled in, more value is added until finally the Well results will either add more value or decrease it depending on outcome.
THAT is where the value lies
Also, the well pad needs approval & constructed Roger.
Wanderer. My take is that they have already selected the rig as was asked at the AGM because the long lead items had already been delivered. The rig I had anticipated is no longer available, but they did say they wre in discussions with a rig supplier. I can only assume they have everything decided and lined up ready for once the full go ahead is given. Spud will then depend on the rig plus crew/services availability and logistics at that time.
Interesting, Wonderer.
Am off to read up about Chariot. As we all know, CH1 is appraisal. The exploration element (the lower jurassic) having been put to one side for now. You are right, though. The combination of 3D across the area plus knowing what the pressure is should make for some interesting numbers in the CPR.
How much not whether it exists. When not if. Fully funded no brainer.
The 3D will show up all the gas. It will be glowing over a huge area. The channels and lobes are under high pressure. Could get a double upgrade once CH-1 well is drilled as it will be based on the 3D.
P.S....its one thing knowing and another proving. As with all the other companies knew what Gas they had and what they could produce but it was another thing proving it
The fact they will be drilling off the £D o CH-1 will be optimal in regard to channel thickness. They will be able to drill the thickest part of the reservoir and hit a huge amount of gas which will maximise flow rates. May get 30-50MMcf/day flow from CH-1. NT2 reservoir was updip NT1, and NT2 had thicker reservoir but was damaged by the mud and only produced at 20MMcft/day, Still pretty good. NT!1 produced at 20MMcft/day from just 3m of the top of the reservoir. The fan and channels at Ntorya or 'lobes' are high energy sands, so the gas is under high pressure which means more volume of gas. The CH-1 drill will be exiting for these reasons.
The game changer is moving 2C resources to 1P reserves, which are valued at much higher level.
The resources are contingent on appraisal hence being valued at virtually nothing where as the reserves are valued at $4boe.
Hence why CHAR went from £30m to £300m on successful appraisal of its acreage with the Anchois drill
Well that is reason for optimism wonderer but in AEX's case I am not sure what the CH1 drill will provide that we don't already know? We have already seen the "numbers" from NT1 & NT2 and yes, they were way below expectations (NT2 especially) so it may come in with greater than anticipated numbers but, actually, what does really good look like now that they are not targeting the deeper targets? Certainly no "Oil" prospects (not that there ever were in my view) so what will all the "hot money" punters be gambling on? The only surprise might be on the downside; poor numbers or the risk that they f**k the drill up again as they did with NT2. There is no expectation of a marked increase in estimates from NT1 or NT2 as a result of the re-working, so nothing in my view that will move the dial. Unless the CPR come sup trumps and I am not expecting anything game-changing there.
I beg to differ. I traded IOG, PXEN, BCE to name a few over the last year or so and each on rose over 400% to First Gas or drill spud/results.
Here we have a combination of both and not just ONE mega drill to look forward to but First Gas and a workover plus NT-2 test.
CHAR 10 bagged on its Anchois appraisal Well targeting 2Tcf and was valued at £300m not long ago.
CP, It was wanderer who said "Any oil and gas share I've followed has always had a mega run up to spud " but I agree with your comments.