The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Good to hear people are increasing their ZIOC holdings Bear, hopefully it will prove a good way to recycle profits.
Hopefully the KP2 boom will result in some capital flowing back here. Congratulations to anyone who successfully traded between ZIOC & KP2 & ended up boosting their ZIOC holdings - thats what markets are all about - unfortunately its a trick I never mastered.
Hi Vet10,
Your ref to the Chinese constructing a railway in Algeria may have some relevance, if not to ZIOC directly : turns out that Obambi would like the Algerians to finance HIS railway ex Sapro Mayoko, per today's depeches :
Headlined : MAYOKO IRON ORE MINES
..." The Sapro Group in search of Algerian investors
Congo's only iron ore mining company, Groupe Sapro Mayoko SA, faces a number of challenges, including the lack of transport routes to the port of Pointe-Noire. It intends to forge partnerships with Algerian investors to build a railroad, train local technicians, etc. ...
.. Now that the Sapro Group has reached the production stage, Sapro wants partners to improve its logistical capacity.
Per Paul Obambi, the company's only handicap is the difficulty of access to the railroad. The Sapro's CEO is determined
to convince Algerian partners to contribute to the construction of a "new railway to facilitate the routing of products to the port of Pointe-Noire......
.....The mining company attempts to relaunch itself five years after exporting to China, in April 2019 , iron cargo of around 23,000 tonnes. At the end of December 2023, the Group signed an agreement with the Port of Douala for a logistics zone and a loading area, with the aim of facilitating the flow of iron ore.
The operating program included, on the one hand the improvement of the existing facility through the renovation and
and optimization of the existing port site and, secondly, the future extension of the port towards a new deep-water port site at Manoka. ..."
(1) Sapro's is the lower-quality ore at Mayoko and (2) Obambi seems to be pitching for finance..any finance.. for a port...any port..
Maybe he's heard rumours and is concerned at Sapro losing its claim to being "Congo's only iron ore mining company"...?
;-)
ATB
Was there some kind of coup attempt in the PRC last week by a local man, his American son, and 'a drug dealer from Montana?
Good 2 c this share is sending others crazy In anticipation of the coming buyout/in..
On a side note our paymaster general prefers organic growth-https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/56905-glencore-boss-says-organic-growth-preferable-to-ma/
Well you don’t get much more organic than zanaga!
But seriously it’s not improbable that the updated costings were in fact done on glencores behest, after all they indirectly paid for them.
Gla.
A good effort alwayshoping! If there's free beer in Abergele for LTHs I might be interested in travelling hundreds of miles.
If only to let all my enemies on here stab me in the back for real! et tu DANNYBAREY! Arrest him, officer!
Meanwhile, this week I sold 26% of my holding in ORR and banked a 131% profit in order to increase my holding in ZIOC by 11% - bought 50,000 shares @ 6.4p which showed as a sell. Surprised KP2's recent surge hasn't led to more interest in ZIOC. As always, you can lead a horse to water etc.
And while we are waiting for a proper spike in the SP, this was last nights "falling asleep"dream and solution to getting the SP moving !!!!!
** Driving, NIBJ & MM notify AT that together with a consortium of HNWI,s (high net worth individuals) are offering US$850k for a 90% stake in ZANAGA ie roughly a shade over £1 per share. This info should really be RNS,D
** Bulletin boards become full of rumours that the company at last has received an offer, all reminding everyone of the £1.56 original IPO. Social Media platforms all predicting Zanagas super future price, especially X...formerly twitter. (You do realise that Extrader recently acquired a majority holding in Twitter, hence the change of name to X )
** Share price goes ballistic, well over the one pound figure for two generations at least!! Everybody really really happy.
**Company eventually forced to announce that "we note the recent surge in the companys share price, but other than an offer received last week to acquire a percentage of the company, we are not aware of any other real reason. We will consider this offer in due course and update the market accordingly.
** With the SP at an all time recent high, AT and Elphick, neither having enjoyed a pay day for yonks, each cash in a few hundred shares, and together with Marty, book a 10 day jolly in Dubai to consider the offer.
**Zanaga eventually update the market with the news that "after a long and eventful thirty seconds long board meeting, the recent offer to acquire the company was unanimously rejected, as we all know it is worth many multiples of the sum offered. In the meantime, we continue to consult our advisers on this matter and inform you exactly of MM,s deliberations in due course.
**Meanwhile in North Wales, Abergele police advise motorists to steer clear of the area due to traffic gridlock, as hundreds of LSE based Zanaga shareholders head for a local well known hostelry and take up the splendid offer to everyone from Driving. Zimmer frames will be provided for all very very long term shareholders, and 2) to decide which part of the world to properly celebrate and get to know each other.
Unfortunately, I then suddenly woke up in a very wet sweat....but still ...as usual...alwayshoping.
Morning ET,
This was the article I read yesterday. A bit more reference to mining in that one though hydrocarbons was probably the focus. Given the Chinese recently announced the construction of a railway in Algeria for iron ore, I wonder if that was mentioned at some point too though. Today's news says Sergei Lavrov will meet Nguesso on 3rd June... Russia are trying to gain influence all over Africa it would seem.
https://al24news.com/fr/m-arkab-recu-par-le-president-de-la-republique-du-congo/
Hi Vet10,
Today's depeches reports the Algerian meeting. Little Den is in the pic, front and centre.
The text includes :
.."The Congolese Minister of Hydrocarbons, Bruno Jean Richard Itoua, and his Algerian counterpart in charge of Energy
and Mines, Mohamed Arkab, signed a memorandum in Brazzaville yesterday, designed to promote bilateral relations between the two countries in the field of hydrocarbons . The document initialled exchange of expertise between SNPC Congo and the Algerian oil and gas company, Sonatrach.."
So ref is unfortunately to Algerian mining and is probably linked to Congo's ambitions re LNG (ENI) and Total's visit to Big Den to share news of a planned $ 600m explo investment in offshore oilfields (reported in yesterday's depeches).
Also reported yesterday was an IMF visit to confirm a $ 100m 3 year commitment to a health programme agst AIDS, malaria and TB.
The IMF had to remind C-B that it still had to come up with its $ 5m co-pay.....
Let's hope that there's something more directly relevant to us ere long.
ATB
Looks like someone has bought 1m shares today anyway.
Nguesso has been meeting the Algerian Minister for Mining in the last couple of days. Maybe he has dipped his toes in haha
50p pffft, £5 all day long!! ✊🏻
I would take 50p. Hard not to feel a bit annoyed with the management team for the total 5hitshow so far in 2024. Don't publish deadlines if you cannot meet them.
Think most long suffering shareholders here would be over the moon with 25% of NPV equating to a shareprice in excess of £2 -market thinks there nothing of substance happening judging by the shareprice -
Driving, an arithmetic twist. If the project is trading at around 0.7% of it's NPV. Then 100x that would be 70% of NPV, which tallies neatly with JackShaft's analysis, which suggests a project at our stage should expect to fetch around a 30% discount to NPV. However you examine it, the share price does not reflect the reality of either the theoretical NPV or the sequence of events that have taken place over the last 18+ months.
Thanks JackShaft, that a highly relevant background. Any thoughts on whether any discount to NPV would be based around the 12m or 30m figures for ZIOC?
i was also a City analyst for a while in equity capital markets. My very limited mining finance experience came when I worked for an Asian venture capital fund. We were attempting to finance a potash mine in N Thailand being promoted by 2 experienced mining engineers, it was to be a start-up with no mining co behind it. The project was too big for us on our own so we approached two (US & European) venture capital firms we regularly co-operated with, to jointly finance it. Both of them categorically rules out participation on the basis that major mining projects needed to be undertaken by large experienced mining co with depth of management & relevant greenfield experience. They were happy to contemplate a buyout of the project & then JV with an existing mining company (accepting lower returns btw). Their reaction is something I have always considered looking at the viability of the Marty start-up proposal - & Zanaga 1 + 2 is around 10x the size of that potash project.
That We are at a mind boggling 99.31% discount to NPV..
Now don’t get me wrong I’m fully aware we will not get anything close to the full NPV, but don’t let this insane valuation anomaly pass you by, it maybe the greatest opportunity we ever get!!
The canary in the coal mine theory should be put to rest by the recent board statements..
Marty Knauth, CEO commented:
"A large volume of work has been completed during the recent six months by ZIOC, MPD Congo and our consulting Partners, which I am very satisfied with. This detailed re-costing study further demonstrates that the Zanaga Project provides extremely robust returns for investors and significant infrastructure assets and positive legacies for the Government and people of the RoC. During recent engagements with RoC Ministries, communities and potential strategic investors, the burden of being the first mover in the region of high grade, low impurity iron concentrates for green steel production, is strongly supported and makes for an exciting future for Zanaga.
From this foundation, the upcoming FEED phase will not only seek to validate and enhance our technical confidence but critically, develop Zanaga's management plans around environment, community, training, health, water, mine wastes and ultimate closure. We believe these are equally as important as safe and reliable engineering, and financial viability."
Clifford Elphick, Chairman of ZIOC commented:
"I am delighted with the results of our 2024 Feasibility Study update, demonstrating the attractive economics of the Zanaga Iron Ore Project in today's market environment. It is exciting to have secured updated pricing for the development costs of the project from experienced Chinese partners with extensive experience in iron ore process plant and slurry pipeline design and engineering.
We look forward to presenting these results to the various strategic partners we have been engaging with and advancing our discussions further with them as we look to progress towards front end engineering and design of the project"
Lassonde curve-https://images.app.goo.gl/5aGPvnMV2Dims3rn8
* The most likely time for a major to purchase a junior mining company is after Feasibility Studies are complete but before construction is underway. This is the optimum time for a major company to acquire the project for the best value/risk ratio.
No prizes for guessing where we currently are!, sit back and enjoy the popcorn…
Gla.
Hi Jackshaft, what do you make of the current 99.31% discount here?
Hi Jiving
I worked in the city as a mining analyst for several years - have been in the mining industry for 40.... this is the rule of thumb we used. Hope it helps with your thinking... best
Even more examples of Saudi and Chinese canoodling.Today 20:02
We are all well aware that both the Saudis and the Chinese are desperate for future supply of high grade ore. Are either of them really going to damage this relationship by out-bidding or trumping the other to acquire either all or a percentage of Zanaga. It really does look like some sort of "partnership" of these two suitors will feature prominently who eventually acquires control of Zanaga.
AIMHO and DYOR but usual...alwayshoping.
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2513451/business-economy
STPM-
I agree, added again!
Can’t be long now..
Gla.
From the impatient to the patient.
One of my favourite sayings, possibly erroneously attributed to John Maynard Keynes. What he definitely said was: "There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world." My absolute favourite is: "Capitalism is the astounding belief that the most wickedest of men will do the most wickedest of things for the greatest good of everyone."
“The market can remain illogical, longer than you can remain solvent”. Comes to mind..or have I been in here so long, it has merely made me illogical!
Come on board, time to deliver our strategic partner…
Gla.
Surely to god, this share price should be inching up not down.
That's IF any substantive news was imminent 🤷🏻♂️
Can the market really get it THIS wrong 🤔
Ah!
'Ollombo' is actually 'https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oyo_Ollombo_Airport'
Oyo Ollombo Airport
Denis Sassou Nguesso Airport
ie Big Den's home town...
;-