The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
This needs a post on here.. MM posted on the other bb
That phrase from the RNS: '...a near-final report has been received from the Company's Chinese EPC Partner...'
Why 'near final' not 'final'? The answer must be something outside of the EPC's hands. Given that securing African iron ore is a Chinese State-directed imperative (and the amounts involved so big (think 'Simandou')) then the Chinese EPC 'final report' is very likely waiting on official sanction. That official sanction is going to be the official thumbs up from CPP representative(s) for the country andits investment conditions.
So what did the Chinese Ambassador and 5 of her colleagues do last week? She toured the country, travelled the length of the RN1 (Chinese built), and visited 4 Chinese-Congo projects which significantly included a copper and a zinc mine.
At the end of it Mde l'Ambassadrice pronounced that, 'La coopération sino-congolaise aura un #avenir encore plus radieux ' 'The future of China-Congo cooperation will definitely be more radiant!
> Sounds like the country got her thumbs up and, I reckon, that near-final report can now be signed off.
LI Yan @LIYanChine Ambassadeur extraordinaire et plénipotentiaire de la République populaire de Chine en République du Congo
5:40 PM · Mar 27, 2024
The first copper plate and the first zinc ingot in the history of Congo (Brazzaville)! Today I visited the Soremi Mine invested and operated by a Chinese company. This is not only a modern highland for Congo’s mining industry, but also the cradle of local professional and technical talents.
https://twitter.com/LIYanChine/status/1773042314380018067
7:29 PM · Mar 28, 2024
It lasted 4 days and visited 4 China-Congo cooperation projects in three provinces of Congo! From Mengo to Lifoula, I drove more than 500 kilometers through the Mayombe forest, and I completed the entire National Highway 1. ( )
I would like to pay tribute to the friends who participated in the construction of Road No. 1 and the cooperation between China and Congo in various fields! The future of China-Congo cooperation will definitely be more radiant!
https://twitter.com/LIYanChine/status/1773432229911498891
Hi Jiving,
Thanks for this overview of the likely 'runners and riders', which I share.
I'd add - as participants, if unlikely lead players - India and (maybe) Oman.
India , most likely via Jindal Group, which has been looking at African iron ore assets for some time, most recently Friedland's Zogota in Guinea ; has African operational experience (it took over Vale's Motize/Mozambique coal+ rail operations); and has an existing 'green ore ' requirement in Oman from its $ 3Bn expansion plan for its Jindal Shadeed subsidiary
See https://english.alarabiya.net/business/economy/2022/12/04/Jindal-Shadeed-Group-plans-3-bln-green-steel-plant-in-Oman-for-auto-products, for details and which shows the markets for its intended production, planned for 2026.
I'm not clear how much weight to attribute to the 'India Inc' concept - some see India as overtaking/displacing China as investment destination (given politics, geography and demographics) - but Essar Group has major 'green steel' investments planned in Saudi and Arcelor Mittal, Tata Steel and Vedanta, to name but 3 , are all presumably potential consumers of ZIOC's premium product.
Oman is more of an outlier, but - apart from its indirect interest in the Jindal steel project and potential direct interest via Vale's mooted Omani green steel mega-hub- is AIUI also the largest (16%) investor in Kore Potash, which may be interested in due course in accessing AD Port's (expanded) facilities at Pointe Noire.
Meanwhile, circling back to Abu Dhabi (whether SWF or just 'AbuDhabi Inc') , I'm sure you're right to refer to the Mopani copper mine deal as 'keynote' : not only did AbuDhabi's IRH/IHC crash a party with the Chinese original preferred bidder, but -apart from buying out GLENs equity stake - they also assumed part the associated Zambian debt to GLEN, see
https://www.agbi.com/industry/2024/03/abu-dhabis-irh-completes-zambian-copper-mining-deal/
And IHC isn't lacking in financial muscle
https://www.agbi.com/finance/2024/01/abu-dhabis-ihc-sets-up-holding-entity-with-27bn-in-assets/
Lots of intriguing possibilities - and that's apart from whatever MM is teasing atm....;->
GLA and ATB
Is the last tranche going to be bought in one go...higher price?
From RNS..
"Shard Capital Partners LLP commented:
"The Zanaga story is one we are committed to and have been following closely for some time. It is without doubt a world class iron ore project, with a fantastic team and we look forward to working with them to unlock what we see as major potential value for shareholders."
## from their website ..
"Shard Capital Advisors offers a one-stop shop solution for high and ultra high net worth clients, primarily from the Middle East, Africa, Turkey and Asia. It is regulated by the OAR-G, which is supervised by FINMA.
Based in Geneva, its multi-lingual and diversely experienced team provides tailor-made services aimed at empowering clients define and pursue their visions of financial success as well as preserve their wealth."
UAE. We know the UAE has made a big play for RoC with their official visits with Denis, the trade negotiations & the 30 year port concession deal with AD Ports. We have long suspected, with their own green steel plans, that they were likely participants in the Zanaga development - but were they pipped at the post by the Saudis last autumn? They have also just done a keynote deal with Glencore for the Mopani copper mine, whereby they essentially bought out Glen's equity stake in the mine but left Glen with the offtake rights. A dream deal for Glen releasing their capital but retaining offtake. Whilst UAE will want the Zanaga offtake for their own steel interests, possibly they could be more flexible & allow any excess to requirements to be marketed via Glen rather than traded directly as Manara intended? However given the delicate state of relations with MBS & the Saudis, potentially they could be wary of taking the stake & incurring MBS's wrath - other than that they seem a perfect match. Also its not like the likely price tag of $600-800m, for a 20% primary stake as Strategic Investor, would raise eyebrows in the UAE. Overall it would make the same sense for them & us, as Manara taking the role, but they also simultaneously bring the Port MOU & take 'care' of the Nguesso's.
Whilst the Saudis appear a very good fit - they state they only want 20% of projects & they pay generous prices for stakes - their buy-in of Vale's nickel/copper interests was reportedly at a premium to nav. But of course there are other serious contenders for Strategic Investor, these are my Big 3.
China. Was always going to be a prime candidate. Even with Simandou they will only cover a fraction of their demand & it remains a strategic imperative of Xi & the CCP to increase their ownership/control of key resources. That Chinese contractors & sub contractors would be responsible for the critical construction activities & the power solution makes this a win/win for Chinese overall control & recycling investment money directly back to China Inc. Simandou is a way way more expensive & riskier project, with likely poorer quality ore - so why put all your eggs in one West African basket (-case)? Issues for them might be they will want more than a 20% primary stake, but potentially they might be able to purchase Glencore's 40+% or indeed make a buyout offer & seek 100% Chinese control of all aspects of the project.
Japan. The Japanese are in an even worse position vis resources than the Chinese. It has been Govt policy for a long long time to encourage direct Japanese ownership of stakes in key resources. Nippon Steel, a central part of Japan Inc, is particularly active in this area & recently joined with Glencore in the buyout of Teck's coking coal interests. Looking at their statements they are still well under their stated target ownership in iron ore & their entire strategy is geared towards 'green steel'. Interesting that Denis junior was in Tokyo at the end of last year discussing the need for Japanese representation on the ground in RoC. Due to its strategic status, Nippon Steel is able to act quickly with the full support of the Japanese Govt & banks, and they have recently done a major deal with Glencore & would likely easily use all offtake internally & not need to trade any surplus.
Hi Extrader
Your first point is my sole concern & your interpretation exactly matches my own - both my initial reaction & next day! The confident, self assured tone accompanying the ZIOC releases where they gave target dates for the MOU's seems to have disappeared and been replaced by the non date specific "interest"; which was the weak language used in early 2023 not late 2023. Similarly AT twice signalled over Xmas/NY that management were in Saudi, that together with the management 'October scramble' to get their option/swap shares & Marty's appointment in Nov were all supporting signs they felt the key Strategic Investor was 'in the bag' & v likely was Manara. Similarly if something has gone wrong at the last moment, where do we look for the culprit - of course at the Glencore traders & their offtake obsession. At the time I viewed Bob Wilt's keynote speech at the FMF in January of Saudi's clear stance on offtake control, as being specifically aimed at Glencore - now I do x10.
Everything else I am frankly indifferent to, relative to the key issue, its background noise.
Hi all,
Away on my travels during the excitement, now playing catch-up.
Thoughts :
-Initially disappointed at missing deadlines (self-imposed), a rod for their own back. I wonder whether they had a Strategic Investor lined up and there was a set-back ? From the timing, my WAG would be Saudi ...with GLEN jibbing at Manara's offtake demand (?).
No worries, Elphick speaks at the end of 'interest from strategic investorS_...'
- as the original FS timeline suggested and others have pointed out, the SI (s) would want to see the latest numbers before committing. I take 'peer' review to be ZIOC's own 'tame consultants' to appraise the Chinese work...
- as to whether ZIOC are short-staffed or not, surely the recently-incentivised management team should be burning the midnight oil, if needed ?!
If things are as advanced as we believe, most of the work will be sub-contracted or awaiting input/enquiries from the counterparts, no?
- appointment of Shard Capital as joint broker I see as a 'necessary evil' - term used advisedly ;-<
The first 2 x Tranches raised funds at avge 6.9p - not exciting. The Third Tranche is at ZIOC's discretion, it'll be interesting to see when/if they take it up . The GLEN loan extension runs for 4 months to July, ie a month beyond the 'snapshot'/test-date interims, hopefully long enough to cater for all eventualities.
- as to 'informing the market'/reassuring PI's , it seems unlikely ZIOC'll oblige. Why should they ? (a) if there's still jockeying around, they won't want to tip their hand/indicate a preference/alienate someone (anyone) unnecessarily or inadvertently.....apart from anything else, think of the potential media circus.....and (b) I don't think PI's figure largely if at all- in their calculations: we're an irrelevance at best and a nuisance/inconvenience at worst...
All AFAICS,
GLA and ATB
Hmm.. how much time would it take AT to do a ZOOM interview for 20 mins? Field some agreed question in a 'soft' interview? With prep time an hour? There is enough to talk about now without going into specifics.
A big chunk of the placing money in Q1 went on part repaying the Glencore loan - in Q1 alone $700k repaid or roughly £560k. I find this a bit odd as I thought the point was to basically keep rolling it over till the deal, when it could be easily repaid with v minimal dilution. However, 12m shares is only around 2% dilution, which by AIM standards is of course minute. And I absolutely agree with others pointing out that it is most definitely in the company's financial interest to maintain a positive investor relations climate when you are continually placing.
Given how few full time staff we have; really AT & Marty + maybe some consultants; I imagine they are mega busy possibly continually flying between UK, Saudi, maybe UAE, & China. So realistically I guess we have to cut AT some slack vis IR at such a time.
ATG- Marty cannot buy as he has access to the updated costing report.
a) The review and re-costing phase of the 2014 FS has been completed and a near-final report has been received from the Company's Chinese EPC Partner, and this has progressed to peer and ZIOC board review.
b) The final results of the 2014 FS update are expected to be announced during April 2024.
Although I agree an investor relations/media update would be nice, let’s be honest with ourselves the deal is 99% done.
I’m sure it frustrates Ephlick & board as much as us to have to place shares @ 8p, but it has been kept to a absolute minimum(seems the 3rd tranche is not currently being proposed to be placed!), and has been highly necessary to provide working capital to progress project.
On a more positive note…”it’s nearly isa time”, just hoping the share price doesn’t explode before the 8th!!
This quarter will be EPIC here, mark my words!!
Gla.
Could also ask, why are they happy to drip placing shares at 7p, when they could do investor interviews etc to support share price. We have kind of become used to being totally ignored as market participants..
Now the market has been updated, maybe our CEO would like to buy some shares in company to demonstrate his confidence in its future...rather than waiting for a free share handout.? Just a thought, maybe we could message the company?
Perhaps time for the company to look at a new IR function.. someone who can dedicate full time to it..
Actually Shaun I clicked recommend on your comment on the other board from 27 March in response to a post by Veteran10, it reflected my thoughts exactly:
"V10, considering they hit targets early for re-costings and hydro-power, why do you think they’ve missed the strategic partner and port targets? And if they were going to miss these targets, why didn’t they update the minute they knew they were going to miss those targets?"
We are surely all angling for the same thing as of today: 2024 FS, Strategic Investor MOU & finally a higher share price.
Impossible to bring in a strategic investor without the updated FS, as it likely holds an updated NPV. That’s down to PSEI. And whether we can bring in a strategic prior to port MOU.. who knows. Over the next 3 months I expect we’ll be trading much higher.
Hi ATG, lot of activity over Easter & some interesting perspectives. I agree with most of your points btw. My concern remains that according to their timeline we were going to get the key Strategic Investor MOU by end Q1 & we did't get it or indeed a revised date we could expect it. Aside from that it will be interesting to see what April brings after the FS update - hopefully a presentation by our new CEO with some guidance as to the remaining MOU completions. We all hope April will be positive for ZIOC shareholders.
Very nicely put Eggs, I am sure a few who have lightened up or can see the life changing upside will be looking to get in early next week!
Most holders held coming up to RNS. RNS still gives hope so I would expect even fewer sellers left now. So to me, a great buy at this or slightly higher levels due to a lack of sellers buyers will have to pay up. This share price is only going one way in the coming weeks IMO. Wish I had more money to invest here. Loaded already, 10p average but would be nice to have that average even lower. This will be life-changing financially when the big news comes but one's health is much more important than that so will keep it in perspective then. Best of luck to all the patient LTH's here.
Spot on, Driving.
With KP2 also seemingly close to announcing financing, its going to be an exciting year for the country too. Once the port is developed and Zanaga and Kore Potash are in production, it will be a huge boost for their economy - even though all are realistically 3-5 years away from being fully active. Denis' legacy possibly?
Some excellent posts all, and agree with what’s been outlined. I reiterate that the update was not only positive, but most importantly on time. This fact is very important, as it continues the trend of updating the PI’s of progress and sticking to timelines since the reforming of the company structure in late 2022.
The biggest short term question is, whether the market begins “believing” the development process is beginning. Realistically our market cap could(should) jump 10 fold+ on securing a path to funding for stage 1 development(our market cap will be in the billions on being fully funded IMO), and anyone with half a brain should be able to see that we are getting ever closer to exactly that..exciting times!
Bring on next week..and hopefully a “awaking moment “ for our share price!
Gla.
There is nothing to stop any bidder forcing Glencore to release its steely grip on this and its marketing strings. It simply needs a killer bid of great size to do that.. otherwise, develop the mine ZIOC will..
Anything could still happen, imo..
Totally agree that the project should be developed by a bigger company with substantial funds behind them -either outright sale by ZIOc or entitlement to share of future profits.
Glencore have only got to look at the disaster that has unfolded at HZM (where they have a shareholding and offtake agreement) to see what can go wrong when a small company tries to develop a large mine
I was travelling yesterday so saw that RNS in the queue for boarding! First reaction, of course frustrated as like many I want to realise my investment here after several years. Knauth still didn't comment in the RNS. 5 months and we have never heard from him. Not overly keen on the joint broker aspect, that sometimes means placing but then we know already that they favour the tranches approach to raising funds. I do understand that any serious strategic investors will want to see the new costings etc before offering. Are they the 'peers' referred to in the RNS? I don't think ZIOC should go down the route of trying to develop/raise millions for the mine. Sell to a bigger fish with deeper pockets. April should be better for us going by the RNS, patience required as you say.
The RNS seemed fairly bullish on the port, not Q1 MOU as targeted, but still heading in the right direction. Again a huge undertaking the port and tied to the FS update, so more patience alas 😌. It seems the April FS release will hopefully unlock the MOUs..
"Port MoU: Significant progress has been made in securing interest from large scale port development companies interested in participating in the development of port infrastructure for the Zanaga Project. In parallel with the 2014 FS update process, these discussions are progressing.'